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Vitality (World rank: #7) vs. Endpoint (World rank: #37) – 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-955) | Endpoint (+640)

Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-215) | Endpoint +1.5 (+175)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group A

Vitality - Rating at event: N/A

Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.25 | Spinx 1.06 | Magisk 1.05 | dupreeh 1.04 | apEX 0.91

Endpoint - Rating at event: N/A

Endpoint - Rating past three months: Nertz 1.20 | Kjaerbye 1.06 | CRUC1AL 1.00 | MiGHTYMAX 0.97 | Surreal 0.95

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction: Vitality wins 2-1.

Vitality are massive favorites in this spot which makes sense, but I did not expect them to be as heavy of favorites as they are at (-955) moneyline odds, which give them an insanely high implied win probability of 90.52%. Vitality look sharp since adding Spinx, and their 5-6 W/L record during that time is not much of a concern considering the level of competition they lost to. However, Endpoint don’t get to play many of these big events and we can be certain that they will make the most of every round. Vitality also failed to make it out of group stage last season at ESL Pro League, so I wouldn’t consider them a true lock here especially since they have still only played 11 maps with Spinx in the lineup. Former Major MVP Kjaerbye announced his return to CS:GO back in June, and Endpoint have had mixed results since then with a 9-8 W/L record across 17 maps played. We haven’t seen Vitality play Overpass with Spinx, and they lost two of their last three on it with misutaaa, so Endpoint should be able to stay competitive there considering it is their most played map. Meanwhile, we are still figuring out the strengths of Vitality's current map pool. I absolutely expect Vitality to come out on top here, but I really do think that Endpoint are being disrespected by these odds. Vitality is the obvious stack on Draftkings, but some light Endpoint exposure might be worth considering at cheap pricing. If you think Vitality dominates, then maybe you could focus more on their most aggressive player, apEX. However, if the series stays close then apEX could struggle to find entry kills. 

  • apEX leads Vitality with 0.12 opening kills per round and 25.3% opening duel attempts across 11 maps played.
  • Vitality leaders on Overpass last three months: ZywOo 1.16 Rating, 1.19 K/D ratio | Spinx (with ENCE) 1.13 Rating, 1.09 K/D ratio | apEX 1.08 Rating, 1.09 K/D ratio

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

ZywOo ($9,800) | Spinx ($9,200) | apEX ($6,200) | Nertz ($6,600) | magisk ($8,400) | dupreeh ($7,200) | CRUC1AL ($5,400) | Kjaerbye ($6,000) 

 

Ninjas in Pyjamas (World rank: #6) vs. Fnatic (World rank: #27) – 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Ninjas in Pyjamas (-225) | Fnatic (+185)

Map Handicap: Ninjas in Pyjamas -1.5 (+145) | Fnatic +1.5 (-175)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group A

Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating at event: N/A

Ninjas in Pyjamas - Rating past three months: Brollan 1.10 | REZ 1.07 | hampus 1.07 | es3tag 0.98 | Plopski 0.98

Fnatic - Rating at event: N/A

Fnatic - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.16 | nicoodoz 1.14 | FASHR 1.13 | KRIMZ 1.11 | mezii 1.07

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other.

Prediction: Ninjas in Pyjamas win 2-1.

Fnatic have won six maps in a row and have a 7-1 W/L record across eight maps played since adding FASHR. Fnatic have a ridiculous amount of firepower with this lineup and you could easily argue that they have the AWP advantage in this match-up with nicoodoz compared to es3tag. Thus, Fnatic are definitely a team to look at for some exposure on Draftkings. With all of that being said, I still expect NiP to pull this series out. Ninjas in Pyjamas played last season of ESL Pro League with phzy in the lineup instead of Brollan and expectations were low for them. However, NiP still managed a 3rd/4th place finish with losses to only G2 & ENCE. NiP always seem to come into these events well-prepared and they have shown that they can beat weaker teams with ease. NiP have a 24-21 W/L record across 45 maps played with this lineup, but that record improves to 5-1 when we just look at maps played against teams outside of the top 20. Will Fnatic eventually be a top 20 team? That seems more than likely, but I still don’t put them on the same level as NiP, especially at this point. NiP have a solid map pool outside of Mirage, and their permaban Dust2. NiP have a losing record on Overpass, but they have played very strong teams on that map and they are still clearly a top team on that map. They also have a losing record on Ancient, but there was a point in time when they were perhaps the best team in the world on that map, so it might not be as weak for them as the stats currently show. Fnatic’s favorite map has been Nuke and they could certainly compete with NiP on that map, but NiP would have the luxury of starting CT, which gives them a solid floor for DFS purposes. Overall, I see this series being highly competitive and very back-and-forth in nature, but I expect NiP to get the job done. On Draftkings, I will look to target the best plays from each side as Fnatic will likely have one or two guys who rack up frags even in a loss.

  • Brollan leads NiP with 0.13 opening kills per round and 27.8% opening duel attempts across 21 maps played in the past three months.
  • NiP leaders on Nuke past three months: hampus 1.42 Rating, 1.37 K/D ratio | Brollan 1.15 Rating, 1.00 K/D ratio | Plopski 1.08 Rating, 0.98 K/D ratio | REZ 1.03 Rating, 1.15 K/D ratio

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

Brollan ($9,000) | hampus ($8,000) | nicoodoz ($7,000) | REZ ($7,400) | FASHR ($6,400) | Plopski ($6,800) | roeJ ($7,800) | es3tag ($5,600) 

 

*Top Stacks: Vitality, NiP

*Top Captains: ZywOo, Brollan, Spinx, hampus, magisk, roeJ

*Top Value: apEX, nicoodoz, REZ, Nertz, dupreeh, FASHR, Plopski, es3tag, CRUC1AL, Kjaerbye