EPL DFS Playbook October 15: Jose Sa is an Elite Play
Saturday’s EPL DFS slate only has three games (two on DK) but they all figure to be quite interesting. The first early game features Wolverhampton and Nottingham Forest in a battle to see who can climb (at least temporarily) out of the relegation zone. Both teams have struggled to score this season but while Nottingham Forest has conceded the second-most goals in the league, Wolverhampton’s defense has been quite stingy.
Bournemouth actually has the second-worst goal differential in the league, but they are currently ninth in the table, one point ahead of their opponents, Fulham. Both teams have conceded in bunches so expect a high-scoring and closely contested game.
The last game should be much different than the first two, with third-place Tottenham hosting 12th-place Everton. Only three teams have scored fewer goals than Everton but no team has conceded fewer. For as well as they have played this season Tottenham is still most comfortable when they can counterattack, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they struggle to break down Everton.
EPL DFS Playbook for October 15th
| Goalkeepers | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Jose Sa | WOL | NFO | 5700 | 6.79 | 12 | 10.11 |
| Paying up for the Wolves keeper seems like a bad idea on any slate but beggars can't be choosers, especially on DK. Wolves have allowed just 12 goals this season despite allowing eight in their last three games against Chelsea, West Ham and Manchester City. Only Wolverhampton has scored fewer goals than Nottingham Forest this season. | ||||||
| Dean Henderson | NFO | WOL | 4100 | 4.78 | 8 | 7.11 |
| In a slate with few good keeper options, pick the cheapest one. More importantly, pick the keeper facing a team that has managed just three goals all season. I'm not expecting a win or very many saves but even just a clean sheet would be enough at this price. | ||||||
| Hugo Lloris | TOT | EVE | 13 | 13.89 | ||
| I think you pretty much have to play Lloris on FD. Everton has been better lately but they still have just eight goals in nine games. Tottenham is -210 to win and +120 to keep a clean sheet. It also helps that only three teams have allowed more opponents' saves than Everton. | ||||||
| Forwards | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Diego Costa | WOL | NFO | 3500 | 0.99 | 16 | 0.65 |
| Costa has just one shot and one cross to show for 88 minutes of play but this should be a much better matchup than those previous games. Costa managed 0.58 goals + assists per 90 minutes with Atletico Mineiro last season. He is a GPP punt play on DK. | ||||||
| Harry Kane | TOT | EVE | 22 | 29.82 | ||
| It is had to imagine why Kane wouldn't be the best top-tier target on the FD slate. He has goals in four straight Premier League games and seven of his last eight. Everton has been surprisingly stingy defensively but I still expect an attacking return from Kane in this game. | ||||||
| Carlos Vinicius | FUL | BOU | 7700 | 1.36 | 9 | 1.50 |
| Only two teams have conceded more goals than Bournemouth and I will have an awfully hard time fading Vincius on FD if he starts for Aleksandar Mitrovic again. | ||||||
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | FUL | BOU | 11400 | 15.54 | 21 | 26.91 |
| Much like Harry Kane, I'm going to have an awfully hard time getting away from Mitrovic, especially on FanDuel. This is a great matchup and Mitrovic is by far the best fantasy play on his own team. He has six of his team's 11 goals, and nobody else has more than two. | ||||||
| Midfielders | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Adama Traore | WOL | NFO | 5500 | 3.55 | 9 | 1.43 |
| I never thought I would say this, but Traore is a must-start in DK cash games. Traore has 12 crosses and two chances created in his last two games. For the season, Traore has 8.01 crosses per 90 minutes. I don't really expect Traore to get an attacking return but he has as good a chance as anyone on that team. | ||||||
| Joao Moutinho | WOL | NFO | 4300 | 6.18 | 12 | 12.11 |
| He isn't as safe as Traore or as likely to score as Diego Costa but Moutinho should be on set pieces if Goncalo Guedes sits. Nottingham Forest has allowed 6.78 corner kicks per 90 minutes, second only to Everton. If Moutinho gets 5+ corners, that would more than justify playing him on DK. | ||||||
| Neeskens Kebano | FUL | BOU | 6600 | 7.1 | 10 | 8.90 |
| Most of the Fulham attackers feel overpriced, but given the matchup and the small slate, we probably have to just bite the bullet. Kebano has 15 crosses, nine chances created, six shots and three assists in seven starts. He is probably the best value on this team and he has a reasonable floor and ceiling on both sites. | ||||||
| Andreas Pereira | FUL | BOU | 8400 | 9.63 | 13 | 12.29 |
| He is averaging more fppg than any other midfielder on the DK slate, which makes me feel better about paying $1,500 more than he has cost at any other point this season. He should get nearly all of Fulham's free kicks and he has five chances created in his last three games. | ||||||
| Marcus Tavernier | BOU | FUL | 7400 | 9.19 | 11 | 6.08 |
| Fulham has allowed nearly as many crosses as Bournemouth, and Tavernier has double-digit crosses in three of his last four games. Like Pereira, Tavernier isn't usually this expensive, but he is safe and there are plenty of other places to save money on the slate. | ||||||
| Defenders | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Antonee Robinson | FUL | BOU | 4600 | 4.74 | 10 | 12.09 |
| Robinson has three crosses in each of his last two games despite playing just 29 minutes against Tottenham. No team has allowed more crosses than Bournemouth this season and Robinson should be one of the safest defenders on the DK slate. | ||||||
| Steve Cook | NFO | WOL | 2800 | 1.05 | 9 | 9.71 |
| I don't really love any defenders on FD so we may as well save some money. Wolves have shockingly allowed the most tackles + interceptions in the league this season, and Cook has at least 9.1 FD fantasy points in five of his last six games. | ||||||
| Ivan Perisic | TOT | EVE | 10 | 8.79 | ||
| Matt Doherty is a solid pivot if you need to save $1 but Perisic is more likely to be involved in the attack. Neither is particularly save but I like the idea of chasing an attacking return given the nature of the slate. | ||||||
| James Tarkowski | EVE | TOT | 14 | 17.11 | ||
| If you are inclined to pay up for defenders, Tarkowski has the added benefit that Tottenham has struggled to defend free kicks all season. If he gets his head on the end of a corner he could have a huge fantasy day, and he should get a handful of defensive stats if nothing else. | ||||||
| Ryan Fredericks | BOU | FUL | 2700 | 1.55 | 8 | 2.17 |
| Fredericks was a sneaky fantasy play whenever he would start for West Ham the last two seasons and that should be the case this season, at least when Bournemouth has a good matchup. Only four teams have allowed more crosses than Fulham and Fredericks had six crosses last week in his first EPL appearance in over a month. | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Renan Lodi | NFO | WOL | 6000 | 7.82 | 9 | 8.65 |
| I can't bring myself to pay up for Neco Williams but Renan Lodi has been nearly as good and he is more reasonably priced. Maybe I will pivot to Williams if Mitrovic is out and I suddenly have a lot more money to spend. | ||||||
EPL DFS Playbook Core Plays
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Andreas Pereira | $8,400 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | $11,400 | |
| Mid Tier | Antonee Robinson | $4,600 |
| Adama Traore | $5,500 | |
| Value Tier | Diego Costa | $3,500 |
| Ryan Fredericks | $2,700 | |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Harry Kane | $22 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | $21 | |
| Mid Tier | Hugo Lloris | $13 |
| Diego Costa | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Steve Cook | $9 |
| Carlos Vincius | $9 | |
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