In yesterday’s EPL DFS Playbook we noted that four of the top six teams were playing at home, and while we did recommend loading up on those teams, I don’t think we could have anticipated they would combine for 17 of the 24 goals scored in the slate. Sunday’s slate figures to be much different, and not only because there are only three games on FanDuel and two on DraftKings. Four of the lowest-scoring teams in the league are in action Sunday and while I do not expect West Ham to remain scoreless for long, goals should be hard to come by in this slate.
The other thing that stands out about the slate is the lack of high-priced options, especially on DraftKings. No one on the DraftKings slate costs more than $8,100 and when you combine that with some cheap keepers I like, it makes paying up for multiple expensive defenders more viable than we are used to.
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Nick Pope
NEW
WOL
4900
11.17
10
18.50
It is a bit puzzling that the two keepers on the slate averaging the most fantasy points are amongst the cheapest. Newcastle is tied for the lead with two clean sheets through three games and only Brentford and Nottingham Forest have more saves. Only West Ham had fewer goals than Wolves heading into Week 4 but only four teams had allowed more saves. Wolverhampton's scoring woes have been well-documented and while Raul Jimenez's return makes them more dangerous, Nick Pope looks like a great tournament play at the very least.
Dean Henderson
NFO
TOT
7
21.17
I'm not expecting a win or a clean sheet but Nottingham Forest is at home and it has been that kind of season. More importantly, Henderson led the league in saves heading into the week and only two teams had allowed more saves than Tottenham. Henderson is safe and cheap and with only three games on the slate, it could be smart to lock him in rather than chasing a clean sheet that may not materialize.
Lukasz Fabianski
WHU
AVL
4500
1.56
9
2.50
I don't think West Ham is as bad as their record looks. They should have gotten something from their last two games but I think Nottingham Forest and Brighton are both solid. Perhaps more importantly, Aston Villa has been only marginally better than West Ham in terms of xG and xGD. If you want a cheap option on DK I don't think there is anything wrong with chasing a West Ham bounce back.
Hugo Lloris
TOT
NFO
13
10.50
Tottenham is +130 to win and keep a clean sheet. I think your money is probably better spent elsewhere but if you wanted to pay up to chase those 17 points, I wouldn't blame you.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Harry Kane
TOT
NFO
23
27.07
Kane had a quiet Week 1 while his teammates went off but he has a goal in each of his last two games with five chances created in that span. He is the best bet of anyone to score Sunday and the chances created give him a nice floor on FanDuel.
Leon Bailey
AVL
WHU
6000
7.36
15
7.20
Bailey leads Aston Villa with 6.43 crosses per 90 minutes and he is third to Douglas Luiz and Emiliano Buendia with 2.14 chance created. He is my favorite forward on DK if he starts.
Ollie Watkins
AVL
WHU
8000
11.46
19
17.30
Watkins has been involved in all three Aston Villa goals and while he isn't really safe, he is worth paying up for in tournaments on both sites.
Son Heung-Min
TOT
NFO
22
17.47
Son looks like a poor value compared to Dejan Kulusevski but 80 percent of Kulusevski's points game in Game 1 against Southampton. Son is safer and is probably due for a goal after he tied for the Golden Boot last season.
Goncalo Guedes
WOL
NEW
7800
7.84
15
7.00
Guedes made an impact in his first Premier League start with five shots and three chances created at Tottenham. Wolverhampton doesn't have a lot of attacking juice but Guedes
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jarrod Bowen
WHU
AVL
8100
6.95
18
5.77
I don't know if Bowen will ever match his 22 goals+assists from last season, but he is as good a bet as anyone to finally get West Ham on the scoresheet. He provides a nice combination of safety and upside at a reasonable price.
Allan Saint-Maximin
NEW
WOL
6900
12.92
16
16.97
I'm not quite sure what to make of Saint-Maximin having his best game of the season against Manchester City. The game won't be nearly so wide open against Wolverhampton, but I still think he will generate some chances. His eight crosses are nice for DraftKings, but his real value comes from chances created and attacking returns, as well as his forward eligibility.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Bruno Guimaraes
NEW
WOL
5700
6.83
12
11.37
It may not be a coincidence that Bruno's fantastic second half of the season came while Callum Wilson was out. Guimaraes probably won't play up front with Wilson out again but he could be much more involved in the scoring. He is an upside play on both sites but he should be safer on FanDuel.
Joao Moutinho
WOL
NEW
4300
6.64
11
13.30
Moutinho only played 58 minutes in his season debut at Tottenham last week and he still managed two crosses and four chances created. Moutinho looks like the best value attacker on FanDuel and he is a worthy punt play on DraftKings as well.
Pedro Neto
WOL
NEW
7600
11.61
15
8.83
Neto is a fantastic cash play on both sites but if this turns out to be a low-scoring slate, he will be even more valuable. Neto has 23 crosses, five chances created and four shots through three games.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Kieran Trippier
NEW
WOL
6700
14.6
14
21.23
Trippier's ceiling is just as high as Lucas Digne's and I think he is more likely to score on free kicks like he did last week against Manchester City.
Lucas Digne
AVL
WHU
6800
9.38
10
10.80
I didn't really want to include Trippier and Digne in the playbook but Digne's price on FanDuel is impossible to ignore. He has shown a decent floor to this point and he is more likely to provide attacking returns than the defenders in his price range.
Ivan Perisic
TOT
NFO
12
13.57
The most impressive part of Perisic's short Tottenham tenure is that he is only averaging 37.3 minutes per game. There are safer defenders on FD but even if Perisic doesn't record an assist for a third consecutive game, he should create at least a couple of chances.
Steve Cook
NFO
TOT
9
9.10
Cook leads the expect Nottingham Forest starters with over eight clearances per 90 minutes. I will probably play whoever starts in the middle of Nottingham's back three but I will feel best about it if it is Cook.
Vladimir Coufal
WHU
AVL
4600
6.25
8
8.50
Coufal has 13 crosses through three games and looks like one of the safer defenders on the DK slate. If the top defenders are kept off the scoresheet, Coufal will likely wind up looking like a very nice value.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Maximilian Kilman
WOL
NEW
2600
4.15
8
10.33
Kilman has 16 clearances through three games, and he should be safe on FanDuel. Newcastle is probably the best attacking team in the slate after Tottenham and that should lead to more clearances for Kilman.
Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Jarrod Bowen
$8,100
Pedro Neto
$7,600
Mid Tier
Kieran Trippier
$6,700
Leon Bailey
$6,000
Value Tier
Vladimir Coufal
$4,600
Joao Moutinho
$4,300
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Harry Kane
$23
Son Heung-Min
$22
Mid Tier
Goncalo Guedes
$15
Emiliano Buendia
$17
Value Tier
Steve Cook
$9
Joao Moutinho
$11
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