CFB Best Bets For Week 11: Expert Picks, Predictions & Player Props
You know what the best part about college football is starting in Week 11 and beyond? MACtion, baby! These midweek games in that specific conference every season always somehow wind up being great for us spectators.
It might not be the prettiest form of football ever, but it’s usually pretty fun to watch! We’ve got some work to do this week so let’s get after it with our Week 11 CFB best bets for the midweek games!
CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: 11/5-11/8
Full transparency to start this one: I’ve been absolutely killed during this middle of the season stretch run. Whether that’s due to injuries, bad reads or teams somehow only scoring 3 points in 3 red zone opportunities (thanks, Penn State), it has not been great recently.
That said, it might be better to wait until closer to kickoff before tailing some of these CFB predictions. I write this well in advance for most of the games, and am unable to really take weather into account, for one.
Secondly, in college football, teams aren't really required to release any sort of injury report throughout the week. Late scratches can, have been and will continue to happen, like Army’s Bryson Dailey last Saturday.
It sucks, but it’s a part of the game, and there’s nothing I personally can do but continue giving what I believe are the best reads on these matchups. Don’t be afraid to alternate some spreads, totals or whatever and parlay them together, either. Let’s kill it in Week 11, starting with my CFB best bets below!
- Season Record: 47-49-3
- Units W/L: -6.2 Units
*All CFB predictions to be placed at 1 Unit unless otherwise specified. Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @stevenw_hall!
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Prediction: Tuesday, November 5th
Ironically, I’m writing this on Monday, so I know what I said above, but this is a situation where I can take advantage of the weather when making CFB best bets. It’s calling for a gloomy and windy day in Mt. Pleasant, MI Tuesday evening when these two teams get together, with a solid chance of showers.
It’s been raining there all day today, too (AKA, I live less than 15 minutes away from the stadium). But even in perfect weather, the under might still be the play here. Aside from a few outbursts here and there, these offenses have been rather average this season.
The Falcons have amassed more than 27 points just one in their last 7 games, whereas CMU has 25 or less in all but 3 games overall this campaign. BGSU has shown the ability to pass, but that’s the Chippewas’ best strength on defense.
If Central Michigan has any success offensively, it’ll almost certainly be on the ground. Which, in turn, chews up the clock. I either see this one winding up a Bowling Green route due to CMU showing no pulse on offense, or it to be a competitive, low-scoring, ugly game. Either way, points should be tough to come by.
- Expert Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan Prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Iowa vs. UCLA Prediction: Friday, November 8th
Let’s keep the above trend going to cap off my Week 11 midweek CFB best bets. Well, sort of. Anytime there’s an Iowa game involved, traditionally, the under would be the call. They’ve definitely bucked that trend this season, but we can still make use of their stout defense in this matchup against an abysmal UCLA team.
The Bruins are 124th or worse in the country in total yards per game (309.1) and points scored (18.6). They’ve improved recently, but that was against Rutgers and Nebraska. Neither possess a defense like the Hawkeyes, one of the best units all around this season from a statistical standpoint.
The Iowa offense, though? Built on the ground game, like always, and tends to wear an opponent down. This could matter in the second half, but we’ll avoid that part. This matchup is actually solid for the Bruins defense too, as they struggle to stop the pass but are 11th best against the run.
If points do wind up being scored in this one, I think it’ll happen in the second half after the “feeling out” period by both teams.
- Expert Iowa vs. UCLA Prediction: 1st Half Under 23.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks This Week: November 2024
- Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan: Broncos ML (+106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina: Pirates 2H -4.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- California vs. Wake Forest: Under 55 (-110 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
Player News
ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg reports Curtis Samuel (hamstring) was not spotted at Sunday’s practice.
Getzenberg also notes that Samuel “didn’t participate in a good chunk of Friday’s practice,” which is presumably due to the same injury that’s left him sidelined for Sunday. Samuel, along with free agent signee Elijah Moore, is expected to battle for playing time behind Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Joshua Palmer. The veteran receiver totaled 31-253-1 in limited action with the Bills last season and is unlikely to have much fantasy upside at this stage in his career. That said, this injury will be something to watch if his absence extends multiple days/weeks into camp. In addition to Samuel, linebacker Terrel Bernard is also dealing with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Sunday.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Dolphins and Minkah Fitzpatrick have agreed to a revised contract.
The revised contract does not add any additional years to Fitzpatrick’s deal, which is good through the 2026 season. Instead, the veteran safety will have a $16.245 million signing bonus added to his deal, which agent Drew Rosenhaus said Fitzpatrick was “comfortable” with as they “continue to work with the Dolphins on a multi-year extension.” Fitzpatrick was acquired from the Steelers in the trade that sent Jonnu Smith and Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh. The 28-year-old safety should be in line for another big extension after totaling 96 tackles, one interception, and four pass breakups last season.
Diamondbacks activated OF Alek Thomas from the bereavement list.
Thomas returns to Arizona’s outfield mix after spending two games away from the club on bereavement leave. The 25-year-old outfielder holds a .660 OPS with five homers and five steals in 90 games.
Saints beat reporter Mike Triplett reports Taysom Hill (knee) was “working off to the side with a trainer in his jersey for the first time” this offseason.
Hill opened camp on the PUP list due to a torn ACL he suffered in December. While the team has declined to put a timeline on his return, Hill’s returning to the field in any capacity is a good sign. It still seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for the start of the season, but we will be sure to provide any updates as they come across.
Jackson Holliday is on the bench for Sunday’s series finale against the Rockies.
Jordan Westburg slides over the second base, and will handle the leadoff spot, on Sunday afternoon against Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber. It’ll be Ramón Urías entering the lineup at the hot corner in this one. It’s an extremely rare day off for Holliday, who has played pretty much every game this season for Baltimore.
Yankees recalled LHP Brent Headrick from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Headrick has been summoned to bolster New York’s overworked relief mix ahead of Sunday’s game against the Phillies. The 27-year-old southpaw has posted a pedestrian 4.73 ERA across 13 1/3 innings (11 appearances) this season at the highest level.