These are interesting times when it comes to evaluating pitching with the mid-season implementation of the foreign substance rules by MLB, but even so, we have a baker’s dozen of top tier aces to use for two starts this scoring period. Not so many middle tier options with just eight arms to consider, although the lower group is chock full of hurlers to avoid.
Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.
Without further ado, here are this week’s two start pitchers:
Start 'em If You Own 'em | ||
Starting Pitcher | 1st Start/Opponent/Date | 2nd Start/Opponent/Date |
Trevor Bauer | vs. SF | @ WAS |
LAD | Anthony DeSclafani | Joe Ross |
Mon, 6/28, 10:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 11:05 AM | |
Lucas Giolito | vs. MIN | @ DET |
CHW | Bailey Ober | Wily Peralta |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:10 PM | |
Brandon Woodruff | vs. CHC | @ PIT |
MIL | Zach Davies | Chad Kuhl |
Tue, 6/29, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:05 PM | |
Jose Berrios | @ CHW | @ KC |
MIN | Dylan Cease | Brad Keller |
Tue, 6/29, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 2:10 PM | |
Zack Greinke | vs. BAL | @ CLE |
HOU | Tom Eshelman | Jean-Carlos Mejia |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:10 PM | |
Kyle Hendricks | @ MIL | @ CIN |
CHC | Freddy Peralta | Tony Santillan |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:10 PM | |
Freddy Peralta | vs. CHC | @ PIT |
MIL | Kyle Hendricks | Chase De Jong |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:05 PM | |
Trevor Rogers | @ PHI | @ ATL |
MIA | TBD | Kyle Wright |
Tue, 6/29, 7:05 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:20 PM | |
Anthony DeSclafani | @ LAD | @ ARI |
SF | Trevor Bauer | TBD |
Mon, 6/28, 10:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 9:10 PM | |
Robbie Ray | vs. SEA | vs. TB |
TOR | Chris Flexen | Ryan Yarbrough |
Tue, 6/29, 7:07 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:07 PM | |
Dylan Cease | vs. MIN | @ DET |
CHW | Jose Berrios | Tarik Skubal |
Tue, 6/29, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:10 PM | |
James Kaprielian | vs. TEX | vs. BOS |
OAK | Mike Foltynewicz | Nick Pivetta |
Tue, 6/29, 9:40 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:07 PM | |
Wade Miley | vs. PHI | vs. CHC |
CIN | Vince Velasquez | Adbert Alzolay |
Mon, 6/28, 6:40 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:10 PM |
This collection of arms are those you insert into your lineups, no matter who they are opposing or where they are stepping onto the hill to take the ball. Ray makes this group based on his two home starts, actually, so there is that qualifier to consider. Kaprielian, the Oakland rookie right-hander, also benefits from a pair of home starts this week, but his production has been superb to date.
Maybe Yes, Maybe No | ||
Starting Pitcher | 1st Start/Opponent/Date | 2nd Start/Opponent/Date |
Chris Flexen | @ TOR | vs. TEX |
SEA | Robbie Ray | Mike Foltynewicz |
Tue, 6/29, 7:07 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:10 PM | |
Joe Ross | vs. TB | vs. LAD |
WAS | Rich Hill | Trevor Bauer |
Tue, 6/29, 7:05 PM | Sun, 7/4, 11:05 AM | |
German Marquez | vs. PIT | vs. STL |
COL | Chad Kuhl | Carlos Martinez |
Tue, 6/29, 8:40 PM | Sun, 7/4, 3:10 PM | |
Nick Pivetta | vs. KC | @ OAK |
BOS | Brad Keller | James Kaprielian |
Tue, 6/29, 7:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:07 PM | |
Caleb Smith | @ STL | vs. SF |
ARI | John Gant | Sam Long |
Mon, 6/28, 8:15 PM | Sat, 7/3, 10:10 PM | |
Bailey Ober | @ CHW | @ KC |
MIN | Lucas Giolito | Danny Duffy |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:10 PM | |
Tony Santillan | vs. SD | vs. CHC |
CIN | Blake Snell | Kyle Hendricks |
Tue, 6/29, 7:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:10 PM | |
Jerad Eickhoff | @ WAS | @ NYY |
NYM | Erick Fedde | Michael King |
Mon, 6/28, 7:05 PM | Sat, 7/3, 1:05 PM |
Flexen is working on a three-game quality start (QS) streak, and has a pair of good to great matchups this coming week in store, especially facing the lackluster Rangers at home. Although his 6.1 K/9 ratio over this season is not attractive, he has been more effective at missing bats lately, with 14 Ks over his past 14.2 IP. He also continues to demonstrate great control, limiting the free passes each time on the bump.
Ross has pitched four games where he has blanked the opponents over his last six outings. Of course, those where he was not so masterful, he gave up 9 earned runs. He is averaging nearly a K per inning (8.8 K/9 through 74.1 IP this season, and when he is on, he is well worth employing in your rotation. The risk is that he suffers one of the occasional blowup games, and thus, he populates the middle tier.
Marquez has collected four consecutive QS while also striking out 27 opposing hitters over those 26.0 IP. Although both his upcoming starts are at Coors Field, where he has struggled previously, he has been better at home than on the road this season. He has a pair of good NL Central matchups on tap, especially the first contest against the Pirates.
Pivetta was lifted from his no-hit effort due to his pitch count being reached. His ability to rack up Ks and also his below-average control (10.4 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 through his 81.0 IP) contributed to his departure as the team exercises caution with his workload. The best time to use him this week would be in his first outing at home against the Royals.
Smith has thrown a couple of QS in his past two times toeing the rubber for the Diamondbacks, and sports an attractive 3.03 ERA this year. He is striking out a boatload of batters, too, with a 10.2 K/9 ratio, but his command leaves a great deal to be desired with an inflated 4.6 BB/9 ratio through 59.1 IP. The opposing SPs in both his starts grace the bottom tier this scoring period.
Ober has been extraordinarily effective on the road in a small sample size this season, with a miniscule 1.13 ERA away from Target Field. The 25-year-old rookie righthander features a 5.75 K/BB ratio in 2021. He is facing a pair of division rivals this coming week, which may be some inspiration to step up his game, too.
Santillan twirled a QS for his first MLB victory, fanning eight Braves at home. He has two more home starts coming up in Week 14. The 10.5 K/9 rate over a small sample size is intriguing, but he needs to work on his control and keeping the ball in the yard, especially with his home park in Cincy
Eickhoff’s first start in the majors went well, holding the Braves scoreless on three hits and three walks over 4.0 IP. Until Carlos Carrasco is ready to return from the IL he is likely to stick in the Met rotation as the fifth starter, which gives him value going forward in the short term, at a minimum.
Not On My Roster | ||
Starting Pitcher | 1st Start/Opponent/Date | 2nd Start/Opponent/Date |
Jameson Taillon | vs. LAA | vs. NYM |
NYY | Andrew Heaney | TBD |
Tue, 6/29, 7:05 PM | Sun, 7/4, 7:00 PM | |
Dylan Bundy | @ NYY | vs. BAL |
LAA | Michael King | Tom Eshelman |
Mon, 6/28, 7:05 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:07 PM | |
Blake Snell | @ CIN | @ PHI |
SD | Tony Santillan | Spencer Howard |
Tue, 6/29, 7:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:05 PM | |
Danny Duffy | @ BOS | vs. MIN |
KC | Garrett Richards | Bailey Ober |
Mon, 6/28, 7:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:10 PM | |
Erick Fedde | vs. NYM | vs. LAD |
WAS | Jerad Eickhoff | Clayton Kershaw |
Mon, 6/28, 7:05 PM | Sat, 7/3, 7:15 PM | |
Brad Keller | @ BOS | vs. MIN |
KC | Nick Pivetta | Jose Berrios |
Tue, 6/29, 7:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 2:10 PM | |
Garrett Richards | vs. KC | @ OAK |
BOS | Danny Duffy | Cole Irvin |
Mon, 6/28, 7:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 7:15 PM | |
John Gant | vs. ARI | @ COL |
STL | Caleb Smith | Kyle Freeland |
Mon, 6/28, 8:15 PM | Sat, 7/3, 9:10 PM | |
Vince Velasquez | @ CIN | vs. SD |
PHI | Wade Miley | Yu Darvish |
Mon, 6/28, 6:40 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:05 PM | |
Mike Foltynewicz | @ OAK | @ SEA |
TEX | James Kaprielian | Chris Flexen |
Tue, 6/29, 9:40 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:10 PM | |
Michael King | vs. LAA | vs. NYM |
NYY | Dylan Bundy | Jerad Eickhoff |
Mon, 6/28, 7:05 PM | Sat, 7/3, 1:05 PM | |
Chase De Jong | @ COL | vs. MIL |
PIT | Kyle Freeland | Freddy Peralta |
Mon, 6/28, 5:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 4:05 PM | |
Tom Eshelman | @ HOU | @ LAA |
BAL | Zack Greinke | Dylan Bundy |
Mon, 6/28, 8:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 4:07 PM | |
Kyle Wright | vs. NYM | vs. MIA |
ATL | TBD | Trevor Rogers |
Tue, 6/29, 7:20 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:20 PM | |
Jean-Carlos Mejia | vs. DET | vs. HOU |
CLE | Jose Urena | Zack Greinke |
Tue, 6/29, 7:10 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:10 PM | |
Chad Kuhl | @ COL | vs. MIL |
PIT | German Marquez | Brandon Woodruff |
Tue, 6/29, 8:40 PM | Sun, 7/4, 1:05 PM | |
Carlos Martinez | vs. ARI | @ COL |
STL | TBD | German Marquez |
Tue, 6/29, 8:15 PM | Sun, 7/4, 3:10 PM | |
Kyle Freeland | vs. PIT | vs. STL |
COL | Chase De Jong | John Gant |
Mon, 6/28, 5:10 PM | Sat, 7/3, 9:10 PM |
Of all the SP’s in this tier, Taillon has the most appeal. He has a pair of home games, but his performance is too erratic to be fully trustworthy, despite a couple of decent outings, at Yankee Stadium, against the A’s and Royals. If you feel that his most recent performance is indicative of what he can contribute in fantasy terms. Other than the Yankee righthander, though, you are best served avoiding all the rest of the denizens in this group if you value your counting and ratio stats.
Potential Streaming Options for Week
There is no promise that each game day will provide a streaming option. First of all, the pitcher must be available in at least 50% of leagues to be a viable candidate to snag off the wire. Then, the pitchers discussed above are not included as they have a different sort of value, even though some might be available as free agents in your league. Plus, some days the matchups and/or venues just do not figure as positive enough factors to favor plugging the arm into your rotation, even for one start. That all being said, here are this week’s best streaming candidates:
Tuesday, June 29, 2021
Zach Davies CHC @ MIL Freddie Peralta
Despite handing out five walks over 6.0 IP, Davies managed to hold the Dodgers hitless and scoreless in his most recent trip to the hill. He has been effective in keeping the ball in the park, which will be useful at the Brewer’s home field. Do not expect many Ks, despite Milwaukee’s free swinging propensities.
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Vladimir Gutierrez CIN vs SD Joe Musgrove
Despite crafting a QS against the Braves, he was saddled with the loss in his last outing. He has twirled three QS among his six starts, and has yet to fail to notch 5.0 IP in an appearance this season. Facing the Padres while at home is a positive here, too.
Kolby Allard TEX @ OAK Chris Bassitt
The Texas 23-year-old southpaw was roughed up by Oakland in his last start, but had been effective overall in the prior four starts, allowing two or zero earned tallies in each game. Here he gets a chance to exact revenge against the A’s, albeit in the Oakland home park, although his home/road splits are not terrible.
Kwang Hyun Kim STL vs ARI TBD
Kim has not been exceptional, merely decent as a SP option, with the burden on not being able to pitch deep into contests on a regular basis. He was also banged around in his last trip to the mound, allowing four earned runs on seven hits and a walk to the Pirates. He still possesses a useful 3.98 ERA although the 1.36 WHIP is not quite so useful for fantasy purposes. He does have the Diamondbacks at home, who are terrible outside of Arizona.
Thursday, July 1, 2021
Griffin Canning LAA @ NYY Jordan Montgomery
Canning has managed to again drive his ERA below 5.00 by holding opponents to just five earned runs over his past three contests. He strikes out better than a batter per inning (9.3 K/9 over 60.0 IP), which should play well against the Yankees, even on the road.
Friday, July 2, 2021
Zach Thompson MIA @ ATL Charlie Morton
The Miami rookie righty offers a stellar set of ratio stats, with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Granted, a small sample size of just three starts is not necessarily a true representation of his future production, and he is on the road in a less pitcher friendly park in Atlanta, so some tempering of expectations is suggested.
Saturday, July 3, 2021
Sam Long SF @ ARI Caleb Smith
Long has been effective in two of his three starts, and he is facing the team that handed him his worst outing to date when he heads to the Diamondback’s home park for this contest. He does have both good control and dominance on the hill, and has a propensity to keep the ball within the yard, and thus becomes the top streaming option for the day.
Patrick Sandoval LAA vs BAL Jorge Lopez
The Angel southpaw is also a good source of Ks, but is more generous with the free passes and long ball than the Giant SP profiled directly above. He does have an excellent matchup, facing the Orioles at home, so even as the second best streaming option on Saturday, he has potential to pump up your late week pitching stats.
Feel free also to send any starting pitching or other fantasy baseball questions to ia@fantasyalarm.com for a private response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better the response will be suited to your individual situation. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.
Player News
Cubs signed RHP Trevor Richards to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.
Pirates designated INF Tristan Gray for assignment.
Blue Jays signed OF Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract.
Rangers signed RHP Peyton Gray to a minor league contract.
Reds signed LHP Alex Young to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.
Padres re-signed LHP Austin Davis to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.