UFC Fight Night: St. Louis DFS Picks & Playbook - MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento takes place this Saturday live from the St. Louis MO.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN/ESPN+. 

The main event this week features fan favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis taking on up and coming Rodrigo Nascimento in a heavyweight fight that will be fireworks for as long as it lasts.  

The co-main event this week has hometown favorite Joaquin Buckley taking on a fighter who is always bringing the pressure in Nursulton Ruziboev.  This card should be exciting from start to end.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Nascimento

A matchup of two heavyweights at different points of their career as Lewis is losing to the best in the division, while Nascimento is winning against unranked opponents. The power advantage in any Derrick Lewis fight is always going to favor him, but Nascimento is at his best as the game plan that neutralizes Lewis, holds him against the cage or get him down and just hold position. Lewis throws almost no volume so even in a 2nd round KO I only expect him to score 90 unless he has multiple knockdowns, so he is essentially first round or bust in GPPs. This fight probably doesn't see the judges’ scorecards but if it gets out of Round 1 it also may not see the optimal lineup. I'm going to have this fight combined for about 65% ownership across both fighters and will split the ownership fairly evenly because if Nascimento wins I think he has to control Lewis for long periods of time, so he'll rack up some decent volume. I think Lewis gets the KO taking a step back in competition but at his age he is getting harder and harder to trust.

Expensive Fighters

Rebecki is by far the safest option on the slate, but he has a crafty veteran in front of him. Rebecki is -500 but my biggest fear for this fight is that Rebecki just tries to point fight for a win instead of pushing his normal pace. He probably plays it safe in the first round before shooting takedowns later on, hopefully he does enough to score 105+ which I think he'll need to make the optimal lineup this week.

Despaigne has to be the second option here even though I don't really like him this week. He has five career MMA fights and would have hit the under 60 second quick win bonus on DK in 4 of them. He is an Olympic Gold Medalist in Taekwondo so his striking is great, but he is reckless, and we don't know how long his wild pace can last. If this fight gets two round 2 I wouldn't be shocked for Despaigne to lose, but he also has the best odds of any fighter on the UFC roster to score the quick win bonus and for that upside you have to play him. He'll be 40-50% owned but it is fair for the upside he has.

McKinney is basically the same as Despaigne, so Ribovics will need to weather the early storm before turning it up after the first three minutes. If Ribovics is still standing after the early onslaught McKinney is going to fade and get finished either late in R1 or in R2 as he has absolutely no gas tank. I have a bet on Ribovics 2nd Round KO, and I think that's how this fight ends.

Ulberg has a good chance to win this fight with his superior volume, but I don't like targeting against Menifield. Menifield is a monster and has a ton of power so a lot of times his opponents will stick and move from the outside which isn't great for DK scoring. For me personally this is a huge tier drop below the top 3 this week in terms of ceiling, but he might be the most likely to actually win outside of Rebecki.

Woodson at his best puts up a load of volume, but he doesn't have much finishing power. Caceres has been extremely durable in his career and with a +330 ITD line on Woodson he is clearly the worst play of the above 9k fighters. If he somehow gets a finish in the 1st or 2nd round, he probably is the top score on the slate because 35+ significant strikes per round is pretty much his average so with the knockdown and finishing points it'll be a ton of points. I'm fading him this week for other options.

Mid-Range Fighters

The $8200-$8800 range this week doesn't have a favorite over -165 so these fights are extremely tight, so for that reason I'm targeting upside. Waters has had decent volume in his fights but Goff is someone who isn't going to take a step backwards, so this is a pace up spot for Waters. This fight is a toss-up in my eye’s, but I think if Waters gets the win here it is probably a KO and it comes with a ton of volume as well.

This fight is going to be pure domination one way or the other. On the feet Borchschev is miles ahead of Hooper and if you could guarantee me this fight was all striking for 15 minutes Borshchev would be -5000 but his takedown defense is absolutely terrible. Hooper's wrestling is equally as bad, but his BJJ is extremely high level so one takedown may be enough for him to keep the fight there the rest of the round. I'll have a ton of both sides of this fight but I'm leaning on "Slava Claus" to win by KO.

Another fight on the card where someone has an opponent who is a monster in the first round but has a lot of questions if it gets any further. Ruziboev has 44 professional fights, and he only has 2 decision wins so Buckley needs to survive the early part of this fight and then turn the pressure on later. Ruziboev is also moving down to 170lbs for the first time in years, so it'll be interesting to see how the cut impacts his cardio. Official pick is Buckley by R2 KO.

Ricci and Pennington (formerly Torres) are a very good stylistic matchup as they are very similar but Ricci is younger and with Pennington having given birth last year I'm not confident we are going to get the best version of her. Neither of these women are known as potent finishers so for Ricci to score well enough to make the optimal lineup she'll need a bunch of takedowns and control time. I'll have 20% Ricci in my lineup but that is the only exposure to this fight I want.

I think this is a good spot for Johnson as he doesn't have to worry about being taken down, and he can probably use his own wrestling offensively. He normally has some good volume and although he is giving up power here, I think he can win this fight in a close decision.

I'm personally avoiding this fight, but I wanted to write it up. Hardy is -135 at $8200 which is decent value on this card, but this fight is almost -600 to go to the judges’ scorecards so Hardy would need to land 3-4 takedowns, 60+ significant strikes and have 5 minutes of control time for her to be able to score enough to make her price payoff. I'm avoiding this fight but of the two I think Hardy is the one making improvements while Aldrich has kind of staled out at this point in her career.

Hooper might only need one takedown to win this fight and with how poorly Borshchev defends them he can likely get one if he survives the early strikes. Hooper is durable so he should be able to survive standing for a while, but I expect him to start shooting takedowns immediately. He likely scores a ton or gets KO'd early.

Paydown Fighters

At $7500 and only +110 with a +175 ITD line he is going to be one of the most popular plays. This is Ruziboev's toughest fight, and I personally thought Buckley was going to be closer to -200, but his upside is as high as any underdog on this slate. He has the early power advantage but if this gets out of the first the wheels could fall off.

McKinney is similar to Ruziboev, he is going to start fast, he has a clear path to a first round KO, and he is going to be popular. It's hard to say what he is better or worse than compared to Ribovics because for the first three minutes he is better everywhere, but after that he'll look like he doesn't even belong in the UFC.

Goff to a lesser extent is similar to McKinney and Ruziboev. In the UFC Goff has averaged 10+ significant strikes landed through his first two fights, but this is probably a step up in competition for him. He's gone eight fights without going even 1.5 rounds so early there are a ton of questions if this fight gets extended. His aggression leads to a high ceiling so at his price and in a win, he could score a ton of points.

Waldo is a clear tier below the other three above him in the Pay-Downs. Waldo is a much bigger underdog, and he is going to have to weather the early storm instead of being the one leading the dance. If he loses this fight a score under 5pts is within the range of outcomes. Despaigne has never been to a second round in the UFC, so Waldo needs to maintain distance, have Robelis chase him around the cage and then once tired he needs to turn up the volume and look to attack after the first few minutes. If anyone wrestles here it would be Waldo so anyway that he wins this fight he'll put up a great score, but he's far likelier to lose than McKinney and Ruziboev but is also going to come in at much lower ownership

I don't think this fight finishes, but I do like Caceres to win this fight. Caceres is a crafty veteran who is always in a ton of close fights, and I expect the same here. He probably only scores 70-80 in a decision win but at his price that might be enough if these other dogs don't get the job done.

He has the power advantage, but he is similar to Lewis where he needs an early KO, or he won't score well. At his price any win would be great and with his power and his wrestling he is live to win this fight, but I don't love his ceiling compared to some other underdogs.

This is a play if you want to get your lineup unique. He's aging and at the tail end of his run in the UFC, but he is stillonly losing fights to legitimate top 10 competition. He has the better BJJ but is likely going to have to hunt submissions off of his back which isn't where you want to be against Rebecki. Outside of a submission win, or a wild hook I don't think he wins this fight.
 

Sample Lineup 

Live Dogs

• Rodrigo Nascimento +136
• Alex Caceres +180
• Terrance McKinney +140
• Charles Johnson +114
   

Picks and Stats