UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: Namajunas vs. Cortez Cheat Sheet

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez takes place this Saturday live from Denver, Colorado. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM ET. The main event this week features former champion “Thug” Rose Namajunas against Tracy Cortez in a matchup for a top 5 spot in the division. With the card taking place at mile-high elevation, we should see some wild finishes and a highly entertaining card.

Explore the most recent UFC DFS picks, statistical data, forecasts and detailed analysis of the matchups for the complete fight card provided below. Don’t hesitate to contact me via Discord or Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now, let us dive into some of the top selections and strategies for UFC Fight Night DFS for the upcoming Saturday event. Best of luck with your MMA fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Namajunas vs. Cortez

Main Event

Thug Rose highlights the Main Event this week as Tracy Cortez steps in to replace Maycee Barber on a few weeks’ notice. Rose has the clear striking advantage, but we have seen her freeze up sometimes against wrestlers so there is concern we don't see her typical volume here. Cortez is taking a major step up in competition here and I hate the spot for her as Rose has faced a ton of wrestlers on her way to the top of the division. Rose has been five rounds plenty of times before, and at elevation that experience could be huge. I think Rose gets it done with a decision, and while I like her to win, she isn't a must play here as she likely needs 175+ significant strikes to hit the optimal lineup in a decision win.

Expensive Fighters

Bonfim has been a 1st Round or bust fighter, and after gassing out there is a chance he tries to conserve his energy early on, but I personally think since he won the first round 10-8 last fight that he won't change anything. Loosa is tough to finish, but Bonfim has a well-rounded game and I think he'll look to wrestle here and get the submission victory.

Agapova is always aggressive so Santos is going to have to return fire quickly, and I expect her to try to get the fight to the ground where she should be able to dominate the fight. Agapova likely gasses out after the first round, Santos by second round submission is my play.

Neither of these guys are high volume fighters, and neither one really wrestles so outside of a finish they aren't going to score well. Elder has more power, so if anyone is getting the KO I think it is him. This fight was thrown together on pretty short notice so one of these guys gassing out in the third wouldn't surprise me. I'm far from confident in Elder this week and would be prioritizing Bonfim and Santos over him, even if they were all priced the same.

Van is a slow starter, but so is Johnson so this will be an interesting first round. Van has shown he can put up 50+ significant strikes in a round fairly easily and really focuses on his opponents tiring out and finding late finishes. Johnson has a similar style, though with less finishing ability. Johnson is a tough finish, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Van land enough to score 90+ pts and at his price that might be enough.

Erosa normally makes his fights interesting, since either he pushes a hellish pace, or his chin gives out on him in the first round. Rodriguez is coming up a weight class, and while that is normally something that concerns me, he has been missing weight at 135lbs so this could be his more natural weight class. Rodriguez is the superior grappler, and I just have a suspicion that he hurts Erosa and finds a submission in this matchup.

Mid-Range Fighters

Jackson has more power, is stronger, and has better cardio. Blackshear is coming in here on short notice, so I expect that to really drain his gas tank by Round 3. Jackson isn't the most high-volume fighter, but I think he does enough here to get the late finish.

Alhassan has a ton of power, but he is getting close to 40 years old so how long the power stays with him in fights is getting shorter and shorter. He needs a Round 1 KO, or this fight is going to get sloppy. Brundage normally quits if he faces any sort of adversity, and in this spot, I expect him to get outmuscled early, hopefully he looks for a way out.

Silva is coming in on short notice, but he did just fight a few weeks ago so he was in shape. Dober's defense is just to lead forward with his chin up and he's made a career of absorbing a shot to land his own. His chin has started to fail him lately, and I think in this spot it fails him again.

He's another high upside Round 1 or bust type of fighter, and at altitude it isn't going to help his cardio. Even if this somehow gets to a decision, it likely means Andre has a bunch of takedowns so at $7900 any win probably scores him enough to hit the optimal lineup.

Kline is coming in on short notice and up a weight class so it's a tough first fight in the UFC for her. Jasmine has decent offensive wrestling and normally relies on it, but I think she is going to start this fight looking to strike. Eventually the wrestling opportunities will open up, but I think it'll be later on and with this fight likely going to decision, so it'll be tough for Kline to score 100+.

Dober trains at elevation so he is going to have an advantage if this fight extends. Both of these guys are KO artists with a ton of power, so if Dober lands a counter and KOs Jean I wouldn't be surprised.

Blackshear has great grappling and is a fast starter so if he wins this fight, I think it is almost always by early submission. He isn't going to have an easy task in front of him as Jackson's grappling has improved in the last few years, but he has huge upside in a win.

Paydown Fighters

Due to the pace that Van pushes in Johnson wins this fight he is going to have to land 125+ significant strikes so his floor in a win is very high. I don't think he gets the KO, but I do think that someone in this fight scores really well for their price.

Erosa is another high upside underdog this week. I don't love targeting someone as talented as Rodriguez, but if Erosa's chin holds up this fight should be extremely close.

Salikhov throws such low volume that it wouldn't be surprising to me if he scored under 60pts in a decision victory. Both of these guys have been slowing down as of late, and while Ponzinibbio has the speed advantage, I do think Salikhov is the more likely fighter to land a one-shot KO.

Agapova throws a lot of volume for as long as the fight lasts, but her problem is keeping fights standing, and an even bigger problem is getting them back onto the feet. For as long as this stays standing it should be a 50/50 fight, but once it hits the ground she is in trouble.

I don't know what to do with Flowers, he wrestles a little bit and throws some power, but he doesn't do anything really consistently. He's another low volume fighter that even in a win I don't know if he'll score enough points to make the optimal lineup even with a super cheap price.

Loosa was getting beat up bad by Bryan Battle last time out, and this is a tougher fight for him. If he does weather the early storm, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win the later rounds, but I think Bonfim's early power is going to be too much.

Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

• Silva, Petroski, Jasudavicius, Cortez, Blackshear

Namajunas vs. Cortez UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats