UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Royval vs. Taira Cheat Sheet, 10/12

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+.

The Main Event features two fighters on the verge of title contention as former title challenger Brandon Royval takes on submission specialist Tatsuro Taira. The Co-Main Event features veteran of the division Brad Tavares against “The Iron Turtle” JunYong Park.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Royval vs. Taira Cheat Sheet, 10/12

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

A high-level main event, and title eliminator fight in the flyweight division caps off this card. Royval has been fighting the best of the best since he entered the UFC including facing Kai Kara-France, Moreno, and Pantoja in 3 of his first 4 fights so he is used to fighting the best in the division. Taira doesn't have the experience, but he has clear wrestling and submission advantages, and Royval has really struggled with stopping takedowns. Royval puts a blistering pace on his opponents so whoever wins this fight probably hits the optimal lineup as I don't see Taira getting the win without using his wrestling. I'm starting all of my lineups with one of these two.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Dawson has the wrestling upside to break the slate, and he should be able to get it done. The only concern is his chin, but I'm banking he holds off Garcia with his wrestling and never gets clipped.

Tafa no longer takes on Barnett and instead gets a newcomer in Sean Sharaf. Tafa has been awful in the UFC, but with Sharaf coming in on short notice, never facing a fighter with more than 3 wins in his career, and he has never been out of Round 1 Tafa should be able to dominate this fight especially if it gets out of Round 1. I'm picking Tafa by KO.

Gorimbo is someone who is constantly improving, and Price is on the downside of his career. Price normally pushes into the fire and if he does, I expect Gorimbo to be able to land at will as the more technical striker. Price's chin was one of the most durable in the UFC earlier in his career but as of late it has shown cracks, and I think it gets cracked here again.

He throws absolute heat, but I wasn't overly impressed with his tape. He has the upside for the KO, but he seems like he is going to be a low volume power striker, and my impressions are that if this goes to a decision, he won't pay off his price.

Rocha was taken down at will on the Contender Series so Carpenter should look to go down the same path. On the feet I give the edge to Rocha but if Carpenter mixes in the wrestling, he should be able to win.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Argueta is going to wrestle but that is really all he has. Haddon isn't a bad wrestler in his own right, but I think on the feet is where he can have the most success. If Argueta is successful early, it will really drain the scoring potential for Haddon so hopefully he can control the fight and put up a massive score.

This fight should stay standing, and both of these guys have power. Chidi is a KO or bust on DK because in a decision win he is only going to score 70-80pts but with a +150 ITD he has a decent chance to find the KO.

This is strictly a Brad Tavares fade as he is getting older and hasn't been his normal self. Park is tough and of the two I think he is the more likely one to find the finish. Tavares has great takedown defense historically so that could limit any wrestling points for Park, but in the end, I think Park gets this win, likely by decision.

Fremd is a fighter who is a great hammer but not a great nail. Alhassan is strong and should be able to control if he wants this fight on the ground or not, and with his power he is also always living for a KO. I'm playing Alhassan here, and likely fading Fremd as I don't love his ceiling and would rather take chances elsewhere. *UPDATE: Fight is reportedly cancelled.

Sabatini has zero chin, and while power striking isn't Pearce's game, he is someone who will push a pace. He is a massive favorite at $8200 so he is going to be highly owned, but he is "good chalk" because if he does win it probably carries a score that is enough to hit the optimal lineup.

She should be the better wrestler in this fight, but I'm not really confident either way. I don't want to put my money on a 50/50 fight that has almost zero chance of a finish but if I do have to pick a side, it is going to be on the underdog wrestler.

Good has great ITD for an underdog and Chidi is known to take his fights too slow. If either fighter is going to mix in the takedowns it'll be Gooden, so he has more than one path to a good score.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Argueta is going to wrestle a ton; he always wrestles and gets takedowns whether he wins or loses so he always has a ceiling. When he is a god, he is a must play in at least a few of your lineups. He always finds ways to lose the fight but the one time he wins he is going to score 100+.

Rocha has a good mix of KO and Submission wins, and he is always looking to finish a fight. When trying to hunt for punt plays, I always like to target fighters who are going against fighters with not much experience. He will likely try to keep the fight standing, and he is going to sell out for a finish at some point in the fight, but I like to back dogs who will go down swinging.

Morono does have decent submission skills so if he wants to win this fight, he should try to get this fight to be a battle in the clinch, but he hasn't been pushing that lately. D-Rod probably wins this fight by keeping at range and striking, but there is a clear path to victory for Morono.

I don't have much faith in Temirov being a great fighter, but Vergara is on the verge of getting cut by the UFC so this should be a close fight. If Vergara survives an early swarm, I think he can win this fight late, but he needs to be careful while Temirov is fresh.

Price at his best pushes the pace and makes every fight a war. In this case though I think he is giving up technical ability to Themba, and he isn't the better wrestler anymore. If this fight becomes chaos Niko can thrive, but if it stays at range he is going to be in trouble.

We don't have a salary on Sharaf yet but based on his regional tape, he is an early finisher with a lot of questions. He has one fight in his career against a fighter with 3+ wins and he is only 4-0 so this is a major step up in competition. He could look like the worst fighter in the world after the first five minutes but for the beginning of this fight he should be able to get a takedown if he wants it because Junior has looked like the worst defensive grappler in the heavyweight division. High Ceiling, low floor play that is likely in over his head.

Rafa struggles to stop takedowns, and Dawson is someone who will get a takedown and do the minimum to stop the ref from standing up the fight. He'll need to hit Dawson with some power to get his respect or he'll be stuck on his back for 15 minutes.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Royval, McKenna, Argueta, Vergara, Sharaf

Royval vs. Taira UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats