UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Cheat Sheet, 9/28

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis takes place this Saturday live from Paris, France. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 12:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 3:00PM EST on ESPN+.

The Main Event features “Money” Renato Moicano taking on the “God of War” Benoit St. Denis. This main event should be all action since neither of these two lightweights have ever had a boring fight. The co-main event features Brandon Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov in a fight that could determine who is next up for a title shot at 185lbs. 

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at our UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Cheat Sheet, 9/28

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

This is a great main event for the fans, and it should cement one of these two firmly in the title challenger picture at 155lbs. Saint Denis is the more powerful fighter and outside of his fight with Dustin Poirier he has had a great gas tank. I tend to think the staph infection he had in the lead up to that fight was the cause for that. Moicano is a great fighter in his own right, but he has failed most tests he has had against power punchers, and I think Saint Denis presents that problem here. I'm taking Saint Denis to get it done early. If Moicano wins he probably hits the optimal lineup on DraftKings because beating Saint Denis is going to require either a ton of volume or a stoppage victory, so he is playable as well if you want to take a shot on the underdog.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Klein has looked much improved in his recent fights mixing in his wrestling and his crisp striking. Roberts has struggled in the UFC, especially with wrestlers so I think Klein wins this fight early or even in a decision win it's likely he gets 3+ takedowns and 70-80 significant strikes so he has a great floor and ceiling.

Sy has a major wrestling and grappling advantage, and I expect him to hunt the early submission. Sy sometimes will forgo throwing strikes to keep position and while it's a smart game plan it isn't great for his ceiling. I like him to win the fight by finish and probably score 100-105 pts.

Taking a shot here on a low volume fighter, but if Brito can catch Gomis, he can put him out. Brito is strong and should be able to control the fight, but unlike Sy and Klein, if this goes to a decision, I am worried about how much he scores.

***PEREZ LOOKED AWFUL ON THE SCALES*** I'm starting this section with a disclaimer that Perez looked awful on the scale, and I wouldn't be surprised if this gets canceled. Perez has a clear wrestling advantage and we've seen her put up double digit takedowns before in a UFC fight so with that ceiling she has to be played. If she didn't look terrible on the scale I would have her above Brito.

Charriere is a rightful favorite, but with Miranda we know he has heart, and he could be a tough out. Miranda made his debut up a weight class against St. Denis and didn't give an awful account of himself. Charriere lets fights get too close and has been in multiple split decisions so at $9500 I don't trust him to score as well as the other high-priced fighters.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

In the mid-range I expect Ivan to be one of the highest owned fighters. He possesses a finishing ability that is unmatched on this card and Cutelaba has really been struggling lately. Someone from the fight is likely going to hit the optimal lineup and it is lined at -700 to end inside the distance so expect a big score from one side.

Oki this fight is likely going to be fireworks for as long as it lasts as Duncan is normally a kill or be killed type of fighter. I like Oki here to get the KO.

Battle is a talented striker, and he can throw volume with almost anyone in this weight class. Jousset does have some wrestling in his back pocket and if he opts to use it here, I could see Battle getting flattened out and controlled for long stretches of the fight. I think Battle is going to be able to keep it standing long enough to get the win here.

I think Altamirano is the better wrestler here, but it is a tough call. Altamirano is off of a 9 td performance but in the past, we have seen Barez be able to get his own wrestling going. I'm not confident in either guy getting the finish here but at his underdog price, any win for Altamirano is going to be great for your lineup. 

Cutelaba throws hard enough to KO pretty much anyone in his weight class, but he really has struggled to get it going recently. I don't want to tie my lineups to Cutelaba again but the way he fights always makes him live to hit the optimal lineup with an early KO.

I normally don't target Ziam in his fights because of his slower pace and the way he keeps distance, but Frevola sometimes just chases after bonuses and causes a fire fight. If Frevola pushes forward recklessly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ziam land clean and KO him.

I'm putting Frevola here for the same reason as Ziam. If Ziam has his way with the pace and spacing of this fight it could be close, but with Frevola being able to mix in his wrestling he has multiple paths to a high score. 

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

Duncan has as high of a ceiling as anyone on this slate and at his underdog price he is a great play. He normally gets multiple takedowns if his fights get outside of the first round so expect a decent score with any win from Duncan.

Allen is extremely talented, but he has a tough opponent in front of him. Imavov has struggled with takedowns in the past so if Allen gets the fight down, I expect him to be able to keep it there. On the feet he will be a little behind, but he is more well-rounded than Imavov here, so this fight is pretty close to a coin flip.

I didn't like Zhelezniakova before the weigh-ins but at this point Perez may have limited energy for the fight. Daria is the better striker, but she struggles with takedowns. I expect Perez to be able to get them fairly easily when both fighters are fresh, but if Perez gasses out, I can see Daria taking over the fight late. She likely won't score well so while she has a decent chance to win, she will also need others around her to lose for her to hit the optimal lineup.

Gomis has power and has better footwork than Brito, but the power is firmly against him here. He'll need to fight a perfect fight to win.

Lapilus is a decision fighter, so it'll be tough for Morales to get the win here. Due to Lapilus being mostly in decisions I'm not prioritizing this fight but if I had to pick a side it would be Morales.

Jung is going to be a step behind everywhere this fight goes, but he will take some risks here to try to score a big KO. I don't think he gets it done but backing someone who takes risks is always fine for large GPPs.

Miranda is a huge dog and fighting a hometown fighter, so he'll really need to outperform his opponent to get the win. Charriere hits hard but is mostly a decision fighter, and if Miranda has any wrestling, he might be able to steal some rounds. Miranda also proved he can take a beating and won't go down on the first punch when he made his UFC debut up a weight class against St. Denis, so I expect him to drag the fight out.

Roberts has really struggled in the UFC. He has a decent job but other than that he won't be able to control Klein. He has the reach advantage so in a win he likely keeps it standing by staying to the outside, but I doubt that happens.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Moicano, Allen, Erslan, Duncan

Moicano vs. Saint Denis UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats