UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Magny vs. Prates Cheat Sheet, 11/9

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+.

The Main Event features one of the hottest welterweights in the UFC, Carlos Prates, taking on veteran fighter Neil Magny. Prates is fighting out of the Fighting Nerds gym which has been on a massive winning streak lately and as a huge favorite he looks to keep it rolling against his toughest test yet in Neil Magny.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Magny vs. Prates Cheat Sheet, 11/9

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

Prates has been one of the hottest fighters in the division, knocked out all of his opponents within the first two rounds to start his UFC career. Magny is a major step up for Prates, but he is clearly declining and towards the end of his career. Prates likely KOs him, but if Magny can get some takedowns and use his wrestling, he might be able to wear down Prates. We haven't seen Prates extended and if this gets to the 3rd round there is a better chance for Magny. I'll mostly be focusing on Prates, but if I play 10 lineups, I'll have 1 with Magny just in case.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Mansur is explosive and should look to make short work of Dusko. He only has 6 career professional fights, but he has made quick work in all of them, so he has the upside for his price tag. I expect him to get it done early by ground and pound.

Reinier is going to hunt for submissions, which can be dangerous with Gerald since he is pretty talented on the ground as well. Reinier is the opposite of Mansur, having competed for titles in other organizations and holding a 17-2 record. I expect him to be well prepared and be the more athletic fighter. GM3 has made a career of submitting fighters once they get tired, but I don't see that happening here.

Robertson always has the upside for submissions, and while this line is absolutely crazy, she is live for it. If she gets the submission it'll come with probably a few takedowns and control time, so she has as high of a ceiling as anyone on this slate.

Gomes is likely to win this fight, but Karolina is tough. If Karolina gets her wrestling going this fight is going to be closer than the line indicates, but I think Gomes is able to outmuscle her and KO or just win a dominant three round decision.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Elizeu faces a short notice replacement, and he is rightfully a massive favorite. Scroggin's is undefeated in 6 professional fights, but this move up is likely too much. I expect this fight to be fairly quick and Elizeu to get a KO victory. At $8000 and -800 he is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card.

Gore is coming off of a long layoff but at his best he is a powerful striker with decent wrestling. Trocoli is all about hunting submissions and using his size to bully his opponent down. If Gore can look anything like the fighter who outwrestled Josh Fremd, I expect him to be able to dominate this fight.

Radtke has a ton of power and Semelsberger's chin is always a question. If this becomes a technical battle Semelsberger should thrive, but if it is chaos Radtke should thrive.

Trocoli is live for the finish, having the same line to finish as the $9400 priced fighter Gomes. Gore coming off of the long layoff and a shoulder injury is a wild card, so if Trocoli makes this a dog fight we will see if Gore is fully prepared to go the distance.

Semelsberger has terrible takedown defense, but he can crack, and if Radtke keeps it standing this fight is as close as any on this card. Semelsberger has had multiple knockdowns in a few of his fights so he has the ceiling needed to win a GPP, I honestly feel like with the new gloves though it will take a lot to put away someone unless you truly have KO power.

This is a weird slate with, so few fights priced between $7600-8600 so I expanded up this week. Romious has a bunch of power, but he is only 5'4 so eventually he is going to get picked apart from the outside, but I'm not sure if this is the matchup. He has a ton of power and is built like a fire hydrant, so he is live for the KO.

He is more technical than Romious and I'll likely bet him, but It's tough to see a clear path to a high score for him. He could get there on volume, but this feels like a card where you'll need 6 fighters to score 100+ if you want to win a GPP.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

Robertson is fully submission or bust, so if she keeps it standing, she wins the fight. It's tough to see her keep it standing the whole time, but we've seen Robertson struggle in the past when she faces top 15 competition and that's what she gets here.

Mullins hasn't been impressive to start her career, and while I don't think Sygula is anything special she should be able to at least compete here and squeak out a decision.

Gerald has submission skills, and while he isn't athletic enough to keep up with people early on in the fight, he eventually will catch you if you slow down. He has a very low floor, but his ceiling of catching Ridder in a second-round submission is pretty high.

Stamann has talent but his DraftKings scores are never good. If he wrestles, he should be able to get the fight to the ground, but he never fully commits to it, I don't trust him here even though he should be able to get the fight down if he wants it.

Karolina is similar to Stamann, she will need to get the fight to the ground to be able to win. Her wrestling isn't great and against Gomes I think she is just going to get beat up on the feet.

Dusko is probably a better GPP play than Stamann and Karolina because of his upside to find the finish, but I think he gets KO'd early, so I won't be playing much of him. His floor is literally zero, but if he does win, he makes for a great contrarian play.

Scroggin is lengthy, but this is a huge step up for him. With how highly owned Elizeu is going to be owned I expect him to come in at around 4-6% owned so if you really want to make a unique lineup you can start here, but he is going to need to land something massive to win this fight.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Zaleski, Bolanos, Pinheiro, Trocoli

Magny vs. Prates UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats