UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Kape vs. Almabayev Cheat Sheet, 3/1

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+. The Main Event features top ranked fighter Manel Kape taking on rising prospect Asu Almabayev.

Kape has his sights set on the belt and with an exciting victory on Saturday he may just be next in line for the title shot. Almabayev is taking a step up in competition as he takes this fight on short notice replacing the injured Brandon Royval. This fight should be a clash of styles as a powerful striker takes on an emerging grappler in what should be nonstop action to top off this card.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Kape vs. Almabayev Cheat Sheet, 3/1

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

I'm going to preface this by saying I have a bet on Kape to end 2025 as champion so anything here might be slightly biased towards that. Kape is the quicker, more powerful striker and has faced better competition, but his biggest weakness is his lack of activity. By the official numbers he lands 5+ significant strikes per minute, but he has four fights that went to decision where he failed to land 65 significant strikes, and in three of them he didn't get any takedowns either so he needs a finish to score well. Almabayev is going to look to wrestle and it's probably his only path to victory. If Kape goes out there and looks to make a statement he should dominate the fight, but if he doesn't put the pressure on Asu he might get wrestled into the ground. I have a bet on Asu to land 2+ takedowns since this fight likely goes to decision. On a different slate I might look to fade this fight, but with so many unknowns that we will get to later on, I am going to be playing this in almost all of my lineups.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

He's one of the biggest favorites on the card and if the fight gets extended his volume can still help him score well. With the way he fights mixing in wrestling and striking he has the highest floor and as high of a ceiling as anyone on the card. 

Barlow has a much lower floor than Chepe, but he can land a KO punch at any time. He needs a finish in the first or second round to pay off his price, but his ITD is better than Chepe, so he still makes for a great play.

From what I have seen on tape I am not impressed with Pinto, but he's a -550 favorite with the highest ITD on the card. He is a counter striker so he is going to try to catch Lane coming in, but if he lands clean, he will put him out. He has a high ceiling, but his floor in a decision win is in the 60s so he can ruin your lineup even if he does win.

Both of these guys have landed 150+ significant strikes in a three round decision so they are really safe floor plays. I expect this to get to decision, but if anyone finds the finish it should be Ribovics. Neither of them really wrestles so I'm expecting a striking battle until one gets KO'd and it's likely Esteban coming out on top.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

The mid-range is really unreliable this week, so I am going for ceiling plays. Someone in this fight is going to score 90+ and I think it is Marquez, but it is going to be close. Marquez has had a terrible chin of late so if he gets clipped, he is going out, but early on in the fight he should be able to win the grappling and striking exchanges.

Johnson is someone who gets stronger the longer the fight goes on and Temirov is someone who dominates early on in fights. If Johnson loses it is probably by R1 KO but if he survives the first half of the fight, he is going to dominate the later part and probably land around 100 significant strikes. He's a favorite for $7800 so he should be highly owned.

If this fight was a few years ago I would be on Lee in this spot, but I'm going to go with Aldrich. Her striking is a little more powerful, and her wrestling is good enough. She has the best odds of anyone in this range, but she doesn't really have any ceiling.

Silva is still a big question mark to me. In his Contender Series fight he landed 200+ significant strikes, in his UFC debut he was getting out struck and needed to fall back on his wrestling to get the win. 

Brundage will be highly owned and for good reasons. His power in Round 1 is solid, and his wrestling is better than Marquez. He is just one of the biggest quitters in the sport so if he faces any adversity look for him to look for a way out. Someone in this fight is probably getting on the winning lineup this week.

Temirov is absolutely jacked for 125lbs, even the guy running scales could be heard saying "you are the biggest 126lb fighter in the world" this week. With no fighters priced between $8400 and $7800 a lot of people will be clicking on Johnson as the favorite at $7800. Temirov has massive Round 1 upside, so if you choose him and get it right you will not only be getting a huge score for yourself but knocking out the 30% of people who had Johnson as well.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

Almeida is a good striker who should have some advantages and Silva is willing to trade early in the fight. If Almeida lands clean, he could hurt Silva. Silva may rely on his wrestling which Almeida has struggled to defend but as long as my low-priced fighters have an advantage somewhere, I like to lean on them. He did miss weight by two pounds but as of now the fight is still on.

Amil is going to throw a ton of volume if he can catch Gomis and with this being in a smaller cage he should be able to find them. This should be a back-and-forth fight, but Amil is probably going to attempt double the strikes that Gomis will be attempting.

Both of these guys throw a lot so even in a loss Haqparast could score 40pts. Haqparast has fought the higher level of competition so he should be ready for anything that gets thrown at him, I think he is just going to be a little bit behind in most of these exchanges.

Lee is very well rounded, but she just can't seem to win fights. She has gone to split decision with multiple fighters in the top 10 but she is getting older in age so her best years are behind her. If she doesn't get any takedowns, she probably loses the fight, but either way I expect a decision, so she'll have to really put up a lot of volume to make it to the winning lineup.

Patterson is likely getting KOd in this spot, but he has better grappling than Barlow. If this fight gets on the ground all bets are off because Sam has an incredibly tight squeeze on his submission attempts. Submission or bust, but at $7000 that is a risk I'm willing to take.

I think Pinto is being overrated in this spot. I have a bet on Lane winning and will consider betting on his takedown prop once it comes out. He's a massive dog but with Pinto's low volume, one takedown per round could be enough for him to win the fight.

Ramos has great submission skills, but he has quit in him. He is one of the highest level BJJ Blackbelts in his weight class and he has found himself submitted by multiple fighters so if he doesn't get it early, he probably breaks. Ramos’ best chance to win is by submission so while his +1400 odds to win that way are intriguing, I'm going to pass on him this week.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Almabayev, Brundage, Amil, Johnson (priced as dog)

Kape vs. Almabayev UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats