UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Pereira takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+.  The Main Event features two fighters on big win streaks looking to step into the Top 10 of the Middleweight Division.  Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez loves to mix in his submission skills while Michel Pereira is a powerful striker who loves to use his flashy striking to create chaos in the cage.  

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Pereira

A main event at the top of the Middleweight division takes place this week. "Fluffy" Hernandez is the much better grappler and wrestler in this spot, and I expect him to make his advantages clearer the longer the fight goes on. Pereira is extremely explosive, but he is limited by his cardio and although he has gone three rounds in the past, he does always slow down. This seems like a classic Pereira early, or Hernandez late spot, but either way I think we will want a piece of this fight in our lineups, but I am leaning more towards Fluffy in this spot as I think he eventually gets the submission.
 

Expensive Fighters

He is near even money to win by KO in R1, so his upside is clear. As long as this stays standing, he should be able to dominate lane, but he really struggles in any wrestling exchanges. I think the UFC is giving him a softball and I expect him to be able to KO Lane early.

Phillips is taking a big step up in competition here, and while I don't agree with the line I do agree with the upside. Font struggles in two areas, durability and wrestling and both of those areas are what leads to his opponents scoring well. If Phillips wins this fight, I expect multiple takedowns and probably a knockdown early, but if this fight stays at range and Font can get his striking going, I am worried Phillips will tire out later in the fight.

I don't love targeting against Brad Katona because he is pretty good at slowing the pace of fights, but he has showed some durability issues even in fights where he isn't finished. Jean is still young, and his wrestling defense is improving, so if he keeps it standing, he is likely going to outbox Katona for 15 minutes. Katona's game plan his last time out was to not even wrestle until R3, which if he does again, I expect the fight to end before we even see R3.

Johnson is a runaway train once you let him get going so while this should be close early, eventually Johnson is going to wear down Sumudaerji. Johnson does struggle with wrestling defense but his get up game is great, and his endless cardio makes it so his opponents can't ever relax. I think Johnson finds a late finish.

Asu is a good wrestler, and while I would normally put him higher on this list, I do respect Nicolau. Nicolau has all the talent needed to be a top 5 fighter in this division, but his chin gives out sometimes. While Asu isn't really a power striker, I could see him catching Nicolau and putting him out, but even if he doesn't his wrestling should lead him to a strong score.
 

Mid-Range Fighters

Hadley gets a short notice replacement which caused his odds to go from an underdog to a -575 favorite at $7700. He is going to be one of the most owned fighters on this slate and facing an opponent who was KO'd in a minute on the Contender Series he has the upside of someone who should be $9500.

Pineda has the advantages early and if you told me someone wins in R1 I am going to bank on Pineda. Elkins has been in war after war in the UFC and while his durability has always been his best weapon eventually with age that tends to go away, and I think we are going to see that. Pineda needs to pace himself, but I think this is the changing of the guard type fight.

I don't love the upside of the mid-range this week, but Penne is 41 years old, so the game has passed her by, but the question is how far. Reed should get the win; a finish will be tough here but I'm confident in her ability to keep it standing and out strike her.

Ardelean is going to look to control the fight along the cage, but this fight is pretty close to a tossup which is why I'm siding with the dog. I don't think there is a finish in this fight, and I don't have a strong lean to one side so with that said I'd favor the underdog in my lineups.

Elkins' fights are always chaos, and I expect this to be no different. At 8k and a small favorite he should be one of the more popular fighters, someone from this fight is highly likely to get on the optimal lineup.

Martinez was knocked down and out wrestled by Elise Reed which is a huge red flag. At this low level of woman's MMA improvements can be made quickly, but Elise Reed only has takedowns in one of her UFC fights and it was against Martinez so if she saw that gap in her game Ardelean may take advantage of it as well.

Paydown Fighters

Penne is going to try to wrestle, the question is will she be able to get the takedowns. The Reed who debuted in the UFC a few years back, would get handled in this fight, but I think her improvements may stop Penne from getting this fight where she wants it. Her wrestling gives her enough of a ceiling for me to be OK with playing her.

Nicolau has all the talent to win this fight, but his chin is suspect. This is a major step up for Asu so Nicolau may be catching him at the right time. Nicolau doesn't have the highest ceilings, but he is one of the few dogs down here that can win.

I'm a sucker for Rob Font. If he keeps it standing this is a 50/50 fight and Kyler slows the longer the fight goes so, he may be able to wear him down. Font doesn't have any finishing ability but in a striking battle he could easily put up 100+ strikes.

Edwards missed weight terribly which could impact her gas tank. Edwards has been trying to wrestle more lately, but Vidal is used to having it been a major part of her opponents attacks the last few fights. This is a very low-level fight, I would avoid it as much as possible, but if I had to play one of the two it's the underdog.

Katona can wrestle and that has been Jean's weakness. If he gets it to the ground Jean may not be able to get up and he could steal these rounds. On the feet Katona is in trouble, and while he normally fights a good game plan, he didn't wrestle at all last time out so who knows where his head is.

Sumudaerji has been subbed in any fight that he has been taken him down, but I don't think Johnson is going to wrestle. If this stays standing it is a close fight, but Johnson has been on a great run lately and I eventually I see him overwhelming Sumudaerji.

Lane needs to wrestle to survive in this fight. If he gets the takedowns, he could easily win this fight, but if the fight stays standing even for two minutes Robelis may KO him. His ceiling is very high, but his floor is 0.

This is a tough debut for Smotherman on short notice, and I think he is in way over his head. Smotherman should be the lowest owned fighter with how much ownership Hadley soaks up so if you want to take a shot on an underdog that is fine, but Hadley has never been finished in the UFC so even if Smotherman wins, he may not outscore other underdogs.

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Hadley (dog priced but favorite), Elkins, Font, Katona

Picks and Stats