UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Adesanya vs. Imavov Cheat Sheet, 2/1

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov takes place this Saturday live from The Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 9:00AM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 12:00PM on ESPN+. 

Get ready for some breakfast and fights as the card between former champion Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov kicks off early. The former champion is going to look to get back on track after a loss in his last fight against the current champion Driscus Du Plessis, while Imavov looks to launch himself into the top five of the division. 

This is a changing of the guard type of fight, but will the veteran be able to hold off the rising contender, we will see on Saturday morning. 

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Adesanya vs. Imavov Cheat Sheet, 2/1

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

Adesanya takes a major step back in competition this week as he faces Nassourdine Imavov, but this isn't an easy fight. Adesanya in his prime dominates this fight, but his durability hasn't looked great lately so his age might be catching up to him. Adesanya should be able to dominate the fight at distance, anytime distance is closed Imavov should be able to capitalize. This fight isn't a lock to lead to a high score but at their prices it should be pretty good. I'm taking Izzy to win here but if I was making 10 lineups, I would definitely include Imavov in a few just in case.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

McKinney is a kill or be killed fighter and it is always in the first two rounds so a big score is incoming from this fight. McKinney has a massive wrestling and submission advantage here so he should look to use it, and I expect him to get the sub in the first round. With only 11 fights this week, and -500 for $9200, I expect him to be the highest owned fighter.

Pavlovich might lose this fight, but if he does win it's a first round KO. He has more power and durability than Jairzinho, and as long as he isn't shaken from his fight against Volkov he should be able to get the KO early.

Gaziev has a tough test for the highest priced fighter on the slate. Gaziev is a wrestler at his best, and Peterson has a wrestling background so I'm a little hesitant with this fight. If he doesn't get his wrestling going, he'll need a first round KO to hit the optimal lineup and with only a -120 ITD it isn't very likely.

Bueno Silva always gets taken down, and Jasmine is a great wrestler for the division so she could get her wrestling going for a high score. Bueno Silva is a tough test because even at 125 lbs she is a size bully for the division, and this is at 115 lbs so she may be able to just outmuscle Jasmine. Bueno Silva also has great submission skills even off of her back so she sometimes likes to stay on the ground for too long, but that could be dangerous against Jasmine.

Naimov is someone that I don't really cheer for since every fight he is in he seems to either poke an eye, grab shorts, or grab the cage to prevent takedowns, but that doesn't impact his score on DK. He has power and good submission skills, and while I think there is a clear tier gap between him and the other 9k+ fighters, he is still someone who is extremely dangerous at all times during the fight.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

This is a tough range this week. Said isn't your typical Nurmagomedov, he doesn't train with Khabib and isn't related so don't expect him to wrestle too much. His striking skills are very good, and his submission skills can bail him out in tough situations. He is giving up power in this matchup, but he should be able to win the fight using his distance striking or submission skills.

Shara should win this fight; he is fighting in his natural weight class and Page is moving on up to 185 lbs. Anything close in Dubai I expect them to give it to him, and the way MVP fights this is likely a low volume striking battle. He needs a KO to pay off his price because he won't land much on MVP, so while I'm confident he wins, I'm not confident in his score.

This is an upside play that I don't have any real confidence in. Hamdy popped for steroids in 2022 and hasn't fought since so we don't really know what we will get. He has a weight advantage here and while he isn't very experienced in MMA, he does have an Olympic wrestling background. High risk high reward type of play with many unknowns, this is strictly a GPP play.

Davis has grappling upside, but this is another close fight. Ziam looked career best in his last fight against Frevola. I expect him to have to deal with more wrestling here, which has always been his weakness. Davis should look to wrestle early and often and if he can get a bunch of takedowns and some strikes, he should outscore anyone who doesn't get a finish in the mid-range.

Alexander is another fighter off a long layoff, but his seems to have been for better reasons. His chin looked rough during his last couple of fights, so I think the time off probably helps him. He missed weight, but that could help him. His striking is better than Grad, and if this is a kickboxing fight at distance he should win, if this goes into the clinch he may start to struggle.

Oliviera has a ton of power, so he is pretty much KO or bust. I don't think he does enough in terms of volume to compete with Said, but power is the ultimate equalizer in MMA.

Ziam is one of the better fighters on the card, but he has a tough matchup here. With Davis mixing in the wrestling, he probably won't score great in a decision win, but at $7800 any win might be enough. His striking is quicker and more powerful than Davis, so he does have advantages if Davis doesn't fight smartly.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

Purely for her upside I have Silva at the top. She has nasty submission skills and Jasmine is going to look to get in close so she should have opportunities. She is a high upside play, but I could see her getting wrestled for 15 minutes if she can't find the sub, so she has a low floor.

MVP is going to be popular based on his odds and price, but he is a tough fighter for DK. His striking accuracy is some of the best in the world, but he just doesn't let his hands go enough. His line for significant strikes landed is 42.5 in a fight that is -240 to go over 2.5 rounds so even if he gets a late finish, he may only get you 50 strikes to go along with it which won't be enough if other dogs win. There is a real chance though that only he and one other dog win in which case he can still be usable in lineups.

If he wins it'll likely be by KO but he doesn't have the same one-shot KO power that his opponent possesses, but his floor is him getting KO'd in the first minute, so he is a GPP only play but his upside is 100+ in a KO and he has the best ITD of all the dogs in this price range.

Ofli can mix in his striking and submission game, but Naimov is tough out for anyone. Naimov should have the raw strength advantage here and he is no stranger to grabbing the cage to keep a dominant position so don't expect a clean fight. Neither of these fighters are high-level so I'm expecting a close back and forth fight that Naimov ends up winning.

He has a wrestling background, but Gaziev is a legitimate top 15 heavyweight, so he has his hands full here. I think their wrestling might negate each other and, in that case, it'll be up to Petersen's chin in a sloppy heavyweight scrap. 

Hadzovic has to get out of Round 1 to have a shot here. He has bad takedown defense and to make matters worse he hasn't fought in nearly three years. If he can survive the early onslaught, he is live for a second-round finish since McKinney has no gas tank, but it's going to be a rough first five minutes. Hadzovic has the highest upside of any underdog, but he might have to go through a war to get there and I don't know if he makes it.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Imavov, Oliveira, Page, Ziam, Pogues

Adesanya vs. Imavov UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats