UFC Fight Night 251 DFS Picks & Lineups: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Cheat Sheet, 2/15

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+. 

The Main Event features former title challenger Jared Cannonier against all action Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. Both of these fighters are capable of ending the fight at any moment so it will be all action until one of them gets KO’d.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night 251 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night 251 cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night 251 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night 251 DFS Picks & Lineups: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Cheat Sheet, 2/15

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

This fight is going to play out with one of the two looking like they should have been -500. Cannonier is 40 years old but has faced all the greats of the middleweight division, so this is a major step back for him. Cannonier still has massive power and if he lands on Rodrigues, he likely puts him away. Rodrigues has better grappling but it's tough to take Cannonier down. Rodrigues also puts out more volume on the feet than Cannonier, but this is the toughest test of his career, so it'll be interesting to see how he deals with this level of competition. I'm betting Cannonier at this price, and also Cannonier by KO, but if I was playing 10 lineups, I would split this close to 50/50.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Shahbazyan has always been a great DFS player because if he doesn't get his opponent out of there quickly, he falls off a cliff. He should start strong, and I expect him to get the early finish, but if this gets halfway through R2 he probably gets finished late.

Kattar really struggled with Sterling’s takedowns last time out and I expect the same from Zalal. If this stays on the feet, it'll be way closer than the -485 line indicates. Kattar is very durable so a finish is going to be tough, but I could see Zalal landing 5+ takedowns in a decision victory.

Delgado should be able to win this fight anyway he wants to. Matthews legitimately might be the worst fighter currently in the UFC.

It seems like I've been saying this a lot lately but the highest priced fighter on this card is again a major question mark. She's won her last two fights by split decision, and she doesn't wrestle so how is she going to pay off this price? This fight is going to go to a decision, and while the smaller cage might lead her to land more, she'll need to land 175+ significant strikes to pay off her value, and she has never even broken 100.

Estevam is well rounded so he could finish this fight by KO or sub, but he has to be careful with Aguilar. I expect him to keep the fight standing and outclass him on the feet.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Vieira is one of the best submission specialists in the UFC and Petroski called for this fight and specifically said he's going to submit him so this fight should take place in Vieira's wheelhouse. He could end this fight quickly if Petroski shoots a sloppy takedown.

Vaulter's style is great for DK and Mayes really struggles to get up once he is taken down. This fight may be over if Valter gets one TD per round, he could rack up 10+ minutes of control time.

Both of these fighters have solid striking, but I lean towards Bonfim in this matchup. He has a better finishing ability than most of the other fighters in this range, so his ceiling is higher, but Sadykhov is a tough out for anyone.

Hill recently started mixing in wrestling more, but at her heart she is a volume striker. This should be a razor close fight, but I lean Hill and her experience.

Most underdogs this week are in the +200 range so we don't get much odds value, but Sadykhov could KO Bonfim if he lands. The more technical this fight is the worse it is for Sadykhov.

Mayes is a length striker, and he should be able to win exchanges on the feet but his get up game is horrible. It's possible Valter fades, but Mayes lacks KO power.

She's a very similar play to Hill, I just think Hill is going to be a little better everywhere. She has the lowest ceiling of any underdog.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

This is a tough range this week, but I'm putting Petroski here because he has told everyone what his game plan is. He said he is going to wrestle and wants to test his grappling, so I expect someone in this fight to score well. He has high upsides, but Vieira could submit him quickly if he isn't careful.

Khaos is durable and throws heavy punches. He isn't going to mix in wrestling, and this is a short notice fight for him, but luckily for him Bonfim was preparing for a grappler so there is a chance Bonfim isn't well prepared for Khaos.

Morales is going to be one of the highest owned fighters because of his line value but he probably doesn't score as good in a decision win as Khaos or Petroski if they win so I have him third for GPPs, but he would be first into a cash lineup. If he wins I think it'll be by submission or on control time.

Budka needs to weather the early storm, if he can fight off the early onslaught, he should be able to take over later in the fight. 

All of his losses are by submission, but he really needs to watch out for the ground and pound here. Aguilar only has one career KO, and it was against the chinniest fighter on the roster so I'm not expecting him to last big here.

Kattar is a great boxer, but the question becomes can he keep it standing. Zalal is a good striker in his own right so it will still be a tough fight on the feet. This fight likely goes to decision either way.

This is similar to the main event with an older fighter taking on a rising prospect. Cavalcanti is low volume but has some power, but this could be a close fight on the feet. Avila has been slowing down lately, and her takedown defense has been really bad of late if Cavalcanti decides to mix it up.

I was so uninspired by Matthews first fight that I put him as the lowest fighter this week. He doesn't move well, he didn't have much power, and he was taking on a fighter who was 0-2 in the UFC. He's tough, but I don't think he has the skills to compete with Delgado.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night 251 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Cannonier, Williams, Petroski, Morales

Cannonier vs. Rodrigues UFC Fight Night 251 Picks & Stats