UFC 312 DFS Picks & Lineups: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 Cheat Sheet, 2/8

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland takes place this Saturday live from The Sydney Australia. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on Disney+/ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM on ESPN2/Disney+/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.

Dricus Du Plessis faces off against the man he took the title from in Sean Strickland in what should be a chaotic fight from start to finish to see who becomes the champion of the Middleweight Division.

The Co-Main event features Weili Zhang, arguably the best woman’s 115 lb fighter of all time, taking on the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. Both of these fights should be nonstop entertainment and closely contested.

Check out all the latest UFC 312 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at the UFC 312 cheat sheet and some plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 312 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 312 DFS Picks & Lineups: Du Plessis vs. Strickland Cheat Sheet

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

A rematch of a closely contested title fight, and I expect this one to play out similarly. Strickland has good striking defense and doesn't overextend his combinations, and I expect him to do the same again. Dricus is going to shoot takedowns and has more power than Sean, but this is all going to come down to the wrestling and the optics. Sean is going to land more strikes, but they won't be as impactful. I'm expecting another close fight where the winner scores 100+ and the loser scores 60-70 pts. For cash games this fight is a must stack, and for tournaments I'm going to be having someone from this fight in at least 90% of my lines.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

The high-priced range this week features a lot of fighters making their UFC debut or with only one or two fights under their belt so I'm expecting some pretty big variance this week. Quillan is the superior wrestler, and I think he has the better cardio as well. On the feet the fight may be close but from watching Quillan's previous fights he knows that wrestling is where he is going to make his money so expect him to come out shooting for takedowns early and often. He attempted 22 takedowns in his fight to earn a contract into the UFC and with that type of upside he is the clear choice in this price range.

This is a pure upside play. Topuria is the older brother of the current champion Ilia Topuria, but he has far less experience in MMA. Topuria has a ton of power, but he only has six professional fights so is this -360 tag warranted, I'm not sure. He's either winning this fight by an early KO or this is going to get extremely greasy, but his upside to finish this fight in the first two rounds is so high that he makes for a good tournament play.

Cong was coasting in her first fight before getting caught by a head kick, and she should have the striking advantage again here. Her volume is pretty high and she has good power. I'm more confident she wins her fight than Topuria, but she doesn't have the power for a first minute KO, so her upside isn't as high.

Steele is another debuting fighter who has good power and submission skills, but this is a tough first test for him. Unlike Topuria who is coming in and making his debut against another debuting fighter, Steele is coming in and facing Rongzhu who has 4 UFC fights. Steele is the better prospect at this point, and he should get the win, but facing a veteran might mean the fight goes later and the scoring isn't as high.

I love Jousset this week and think he is better wherever this fight goes. His wrestling is better if he wants to use it, although he normally relies on his striking. Jousset is also the rare French fighter who fights out of City Kickboxing in Australia so he should get the hometown backing from the crowd in this fight. He was KO'd a few months ago but against Bryan Battle he absorbed nearly 100 strikes in two rounds, which isn't something Micallef has in his bag.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Someone from this fight is going to be on the optimal so I'm ranking them both at the top of the Mid-Range. Suarez needs to get her wrestling going to win this fight, and if she doesn't get the submission early, I don't think she wins the fight. At her best she is the best wrestler and submission artist in all of women’s MMA, but her problem is she has been constantly hurt. Anything after Round 2 is unknown with her cardio and in a dog fight, I favor Zhang, so let's hope she gets the takedowns early.

Weili is always moving forward and the fact she is an underdog is a little insane with how long she has been dominating this division. Her takedown defense is her one weakness so if she gets taken down it could be an issue, but we do know that she can fight for a hard 25 minutes so even if she does get taken down early she should be able to turn the tide of the fight late. This is as close as a fight gets and both women score well on DraftKings so this is essentially a must play fight.

Teixeira has a major height and reach advantage against Tafa. He has the best ITD of the mid-range fighters and his volume is pretty good for a heavyweight. All of his fights have ended in the first round so it's to be seen if he has cardio but at heavyweight most of the time you don't have to worry about testing that.

Borshchev struggles when he has to fight off of his back but that isn't the case here. I really love Borshchev to win this fight by KO since Nolan has had durability issues. He is getting a little older so maybe his durability isn't what it used to be, but I think it should be enough to get the job done here.

Santos can wrestle, but Jenkins is someone who slows the pace of their fight down so if he can't get his takedowns his score probably isn't enough to pay off his price. He doesn't have good ITD for his price.

Matthews is facing an opponent who is moving up a weight class and is only 22 years old so there are a lot of question marks here. Matthews at his best has power and can wrestle a bit but I'm not confident he deserves to be a -245 favorite.

Crute should be a little faster than Bellato, but I don't feel super confident about this fight. Bellato has some power but I'm not sure about his cardio, and I think Crute can take advantage of that late.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Anyone below Strickland this week is a pretty big dog, but Prado does have some skills that make this interesting. He is younger and quicker than Matthews but doesn't have much experience. He should be an improved version of himself from last time out so I'm banking on the 22-year-old to get the win.

Jenkins is a better striker than Santos, especially with his leg kicks. If Santos can't wrestle, I expect his lead leg to get chewed up and Jenkins to be able to take over the second half of the fight.

Rong is KO or bust this week, but at $7100 having any path to victory is pretty good. High ceiling, extremely low floor.

Thicknesse is in on short notice, but he is the hometown fighter so he didn't have to travel from overseas. Topuria has power, but we haven't seen him in a dog fighter, so after the first five minutes this is anyone's fight. Thicknesse probably won't get a finish, but he could be able to control the fight and get out of there with a decision.

Cong was just knocked down and subbed in her last fight, and while I don't bank on it happening again, Bruna is a better grappler. She'll need to get a few early takedowns to slow down Cong but at $6800 and wrestling upside she is a good play.

Micallef doesn't have a solid advantage anywhere this fight goes but he'll probably try to get it on the ground but even if he doesn’t, I still think he'll be behind.

Jubli gassed in his last fight, and he is giving up a massive wrestling edge here. Unless he looks like a completely different fighter he will struggle to keep up.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 312 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Zhang, Strickland, Prado, Crute

Du Plessis vs. Strickland UFC 312 Picks & Stats