UFC 309 DFS Picks & Lineups: Jones vs. Miocic Cheat Sheet, 11/16

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic takes place this Saturday live from Madison Square Garden in New York. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on Hulu/ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM EST on ESPNEWS/FX/Hulu/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. 

The Main Event features the greatest of all time in Jon Jones taking on the greatest heavyweight of all time Stipe Miocic. Jones is coming off of a long layoff after a shoulder injury, while Stipe looks to make his return from a four-year layoff and put a stamp on the end of his terrific career. 

The co-main event features two all-action fighters, Charles Oliviera and Michael Chandler in a fight that should be great for as long as it lasts.

Check out all the latest UFC 309 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at the UFC 309 cheat sheet and some plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 309 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 309 DFS Picks & Lineups: Jones vs. Miocic Cheat Sheet

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

The greatest of all time vs. the greatest heavyweight of all time caps off the card this week. Jones is coming off almost two years of inactivity and had a massive shoulder injury derail him for a long time. Stipe hasn't fought since he was brutally KO'd by Francis Ngannou in 2020 so it's tough to say what version of him, we see. Jones is priced at $9500 so we likely need around 110 for him to hit the optimal lineup and Jones hasn't been the most voluminous striker/wrestler. Jones is rightfully a huge favorite, and while I do think he wins this fight, it isn't a lock that he is in the DK optimal lineup. I'll have Jones in around 30-40% of my lineups, and Stipe will be in 10-15% because on the off chance that he does win, he is going to easily pay off his $6700 price tag.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

This is a wild week for the high-priced range, with four fighters at $9500+. Nickal has the wrestling upside if he wants to play in the guard of Paul Craig, but he can also KO him on the feet. He should win this fight easily, but with Craig's best skills being his submission game I'm nervous Nickal won't use his world class wrestling here which could hamper his upside if this gets out of Round 1. At a price of -575 ITD he is one of the safest picks to score 100+.

This is my favorite fight on the card this week. Oliveira is my second pick strictly on the upside. He has five rounds to work with if needed, and Chandler is someone who pushes such a relentless pace that Oliviera is going to have to be landing or shooting takedowns to keep Chandler off of him. He isn't the safest pick in this range but in terms of upside, it is almost impossible for him to not score 95+.

Onama is the much better striker, but I'd like to see him mix in the wrestling here. From all the tapes I've seen of Romero he is going to shoot takedowns early and often, but he isn't a high-level wrestler. Onama should get the better of him, but we have seen Onama gas out before against Landwehr, but that was mostly due to chasing a finish as he won the first round 10-8. There is no ITD line yet, but Onama is likely to get the finish.

Ruffy is another prospect out of the Fighting Nerds camp, but we are paying the full price for him here. Ruffy arguably was down 2-0 on his Contender Series fight, and he lands about the same number of strikes as his opponent, although his are more impactful. Llontop's best skill is his cardio and durability so while Ruffy could just KO him clean, I have concerns if this gets out of Round 1. Ruffy's ceiling is as high as anyone on this card, but if he doesn't win in Round 1 it'll be tough for him to get to 100+ points since he hasn't shown any wrestling ability and, in a decision, I expect him to land 80-100 significant strikes.

Silva is going to shoot for takedowns, and she should be able to get them. I'm going to bet Silva to win by submission as a long shot and if she does get the sub she'll score well, it is just really hard to click her name at +240 ITD when all of these other high-priced favorites are at minimum -175 ITD. On another slate she would be a top play, but on this one I think she gets overlooked which could make her exactly what you need to win a GPP.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

I don't love the mid-range favorites this week, but we do have some interesting matchups. Elliott is a huge favorite at $8800 and if he does win it's likely by using his wrestling. Hafez is strong but has cardio issues so if Elliott really pushes on him, I can see him dominating the fight late. His +320 ITD makes him a pretty hard pick, but most of these fighters in the mid-range have some flaws or unknowns, but we at least know what Oban wants to do, and it's a path that scores well if he succeeds.

I'm overly confident in Tybura this week which could be dangerous. Diniz was taken down and controlled for a full round by Austen Lane, and Tybura is much more skilled on the ground than Lane is. If Tybura gets a single takedown he probably wins the fight, but at the minimum he'll win the round because we haven't seen Diniz show any ability to get back to his feet. On the feet he is in danger, but Tybura is smart enough to know that.

I love McGhee in this fight, but he is a 34-year-old untested prospect taking on a fighter who just lost a decision to Jose Aldo. His upside is high, and we have seen Martinez been KO'd in the past so it could happen again here. 

Gall is the more well-rounded fighter, which says a lot about Ramiz's striking. Gall is going to put out more volume so he should win rounds here unless Brahimaj gets a takedown and ends up on top of him. Brahimaj has two wins in the UFC and both of those fighters have been cut immediately after the loss, while Gall gets thrown fringe top 15 competition and although he doesn't always win, he at least competes. Gall should be able to win this, and if Brahimaj doesn't get the early finish I expect him to fade.

This fight should be chaos, and I'm concerned about Jim Miller after the absolute beating he took at UFC 300. Miller has always been someone who can win a fight early, but if he doesn’t, he probably gets dominated later on. I'm taking Jackson to weather the early storm and find the win late, but it's going to be a tough opening round. Miller is also local to NY and likely retiring soon so I wouldn't be surprised if a close fight gets given to Miller.

Both of these fighters are complete unknowns as to what version of themselves will show up. Anders at his best mixes in wrestling with him cage control, but that is also where Weidman can excel. Anders is much more durable, so I'll be picking him, and we have seen Weidman tired and hurt late in fights so if anyone is getting a finish, I think it'll be Anders.

For as long as Miller has been in the UFC, he has always been live for a submission win. He's kneebared Charles Oliviera, he's had a fighter of the night with Dustin Poirier, and while those years are far behind him he still has the skillset that makes him an always dangerous fan favorite. I'd like to see Miller get his hand raised one more time and call it a career, but Jackson is a tough test for him at this point in his career.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Moura is going to be one of the chalky underdogs plays this week. She is going to try to wrestle non-stop as shown by her 26 takedown attempts in her last fight, and at only +120 for $7500 she has some serious odds value. I expect her to be around 40% owned in large field contests and closer to 50% in smaller field. If you are making a cash game lineup, she is a staple this week.

Chandler has a much higher ceiling than Moura, but his path to getting there is much harder. Chandler can KO anyone in the first round, but the later the fight goes on he tends to fade. He's also getting up there in age and we haven't seen him compete in years as he was trying to wait out McGregor for a big money fight. His explosiveness is still going to be there, but I don't think his cardio will be any better, he has 7.5 minutes to get the win otherwise he is going to get drowned.

Hafez is stronger than Elliott so he should be able to get some takedowns of his own, but his cardio is suspect, and he doesn't really do much with the takedowns. He'll need multiple takedowns and a ton of control time to get the win, but if that happens, he's going to score extremely well for his $7400 price tag.

If Silva can't get the fight down Araujo should be able to excel. She needs to have others in this price range lose as well since her ceiling isn't nearly as high as some others, but she is the cheapest fighter before we get into the +500 range of underdogs so she isn't a terrible play.

I don't love Romero but the only way he wins this fight is wrestling. All of the tape I've watched on him is just relentlessly shooting for takedowns, so his upside is clearly there, I just think he is going to have a hard time getting Onama down with the takedown attempts that I have seen.

This fight is going to be at a catchweight of 165lbs because it sounds like Llontop was struggling to cut down. Llontop is durable and I could see him surviving here and making this a close fight, but at the end of the day he is going to be giving up a lot of power and I don't see him KOing Ruffy.

Craig is always live for a submission win and that is his only path to winning here. If Bo keeps it standing, he is going to lose a striking battle, if Bo opts to wrestle Craig is going to go all out for submissions off of his back and while I'm not fading him completely, I do think it is a long shot that he wins.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 309 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Chandler, Moura, Hafez, Miocic

Jones vs. Miocic UFC 309 Picks & Stats