UFC 308 DFS Picks & Lineups: Topuria vs. Holloway Cheat Sheet, 10/26

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway takes place this Saturday live from Abu Dhabi. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00AM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 2:00PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event for the featherweight title features two fan favorites as Ilia Topuria looks to defend his title against Max Holloway. 

Holloway is coming off of a win up at lightweight to claim the BMF belt, while the last time we saw Topuria he was knocking out Alexander Volkanovski in under two rounds. This fight should be all action for as long as it lasts. The Co-Main event pits Khamzat Chimaev against Robert Whittaker in a fight that has major implications in the title picture at 185lbs. 

Check out all the latest UFC 308 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at the UFC 308 cheat sheet and some plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 308 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 308 DFS Picks & Lineups: Topuria vs. Holloway Cheat Sheet

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

Both of these guys are coming off highlight KO's and this should be a front runner for fight of the year. Topuria is more well-rounded and has more ways to win. His submissions skills are good, his wrestling is good, and he has more power than Max. Max's boxing has been his bread and butter in every matchup outside of his fights against Volk, but I think he has the advantage here. Max has always been susceptible to leg kicks but that isn't something Topuria relies on. This is a hard fight to pick, Topuria has all the power, but Max has never been KO'd. Max has unlimited cardio so if he doesn't get KO'd how does Topuria react? I'm backing Max here as the underdog, but in terms of DraftKings scoring I want one of these guys in each of my lineups. If Topuria wins he probably gets a few takedowns, lands a ton of strikes and maybe even a submission. If Max wins, he is going to have to land 125+ significant strikes and at his price that should be enough to win you a GPP.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

This is a weird slate where the high end has a lot of questions, but one question we know is that if Chimaev wins he scores well. Chimaev's worst score is still over 90 DK points, and it was in a three round decision due to his high volume of takedowns and aggressive striking. I actually think this line is too wide and should be closer to a pick'em, but with five rounds to work with I know the winner of this fight is going to be on the optimal lineup so I'm going be loading up on Chimaev. With so many fighters in the high-priced range having a lot of questions, I'll be focusing on the upside.

Basharat would have been my favorite fighter in the high end, but Hugo missed weight by nearly 10lbs so I'm not sure what is going on there. I wouldn't be surprised if the fight somehow got cancelled, or if Hugo is injured. Basharat is better everywhere but if Hugo is able to outmuscle him early on due to the weight advantage it may put a damper on his score. I think Basharat gets the late finish here probably by submission.

Orolbai is a talented wrestler who has locked up 12 takedowns through two UFC fights. Rebecki is a good wrestler in his own right, but when push comes to shove, I think Orolbai is going to be the one in control. He is another fighter who goes to a lot of decisions, but with his volume and wrestling he can still score 100+ in a decision.

Fakhretdinov takes on Leal who is coming in on short notice. Fakhretdinov is reliant on his takedowns and if he doesn't get them here, he is probably going to lose this fight. He also doesn't have great cardio for a wrestler, and we have seen him tired later in fights multiple times. If he wins, he probably has 5+ takedowns and 7+ minutes of control time so he would score well. Leal is talented, and while he does normally struggle with takedowns, he is hard to hold down.

I don't know what do with Kennedy this week. He has looked terrible in his last two fights, losing to an over the hill OSP and getting KO'd quickly two fights ago and he is going to be highly owned. He gets a major step down in competition in Chris Barnett here, but at his salary we probably need him to score 110+ fantasy points and with only one fight with a takedown in his UFC career, and average volume that works out to about 80 significant strike landed over three rounds, I don't see how he pays this off without a KO. Barnett is giving up 8 inches in height and reach so he is going to be having to crash inside the pocket to land anything so Kennedy peppering jabs to keep Barnett away may help land a few extra strikes.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Aslan is taking on a debuting fighter on short notice and between the two of them they have never gone to a decision. I don't rate Aslan very high but all the tapes I have watched on Cerqueira shows me someone who doesn't belong in the UFC. Maybe I'm wrong here but I think Aslan is going to win this fight in a dominant fashion. Whoever wins this fight probably scores enough to pay off their price so I will have both sides of this fight in my lineups, but Aslan is going to be the less owned fighter, and I am picking him outright.

I still want some Cerqueira in my lineups. He actually has pulled off some decent submission wins, but finding some of his fight tape is hard to track down. He doesn't throw in combination, everything is just one and done, but what he does throw has a lot of heat behind it. His last win by spinning elbow was one of the cleanest landed elbows I've ever seen so if he lands one of those it will KO anyone, but he was 100% losing that fight until he pulled that out.

This is another fight that I don't understand where the line is coming from. Naurdiev had an unsuccessful run in the UFC, and then mixed results outside of the organization but he finds himself back again. Naurdiev is a talented fighter, but he tends to gas out early, and that is where I think Silva can takeover. Silva looked terrible in his fight against Weidman, but he was poked in the eye multiple times in that fight, so I think he was just thrown off his game. I'm going to be betting on Silva and expect him to get his hand raised in this spot, I don't see what warrants Naurdiev to be a -170 favorite.

Abus has had a tough run in the UFC going 2-2 but it is hard to judge him when his two losses were against Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. He is giving up some power here, but he is the better striker and wrestler. We don't know much about Ferreira outside of Round 1 which speaks to his upside, but I think Magomedov is good enough to drag this fight out a little bit before taking over later on.

I'm not sold on the ceiling of Shara, but I do know Armen has been good when he doesn't have to deal with takedowns. This fight should be closer to 50/50 and if Petrosyan can get his kicks going, he should be able to outpace Shara. Winning a decision in Abu Dhabi might be tough so he'll really have to put a stamp on it to win, but if this fight is close, I wouldn't want to be paying $8600 for Shara.

He has the upside that you need to win a large tournament so if he does win, it is probably by KO. He only has one path to victory as I don't see him outvoluming Abus over 15 minutes so for me he is KO or bust, but that gives him the huge ceiling.

Although I don't think Naurdiev should be this big of a favorite, he does push a decent pace especially early on, so if he does get going early, he could be able to get the win. I don't want to play him, but he is going to be close to 35% owned so going in with him in 0 of my lineups might be a little too aggressive.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

Whitaker is getting five rounds to work with, and I expect him to have to weather a storm early, but if he does this fight is his. He has the championship experience to go five rounds, he has better technical wrestling (I don't think he can match Khamzat's strength early) and we've seen him in wars in the past, so I know come Round 4/5.

I don't know if he wins this fight, but the way he does is by being the better wrestler. If he does win, he scores a ton of points, in a loss he probably survives until the final bell, so he won't kill your lineups.

Ankalaev fights extremely close fights, so I don't get these odds. Rakic looked great in Round 1 using his striking against Jiri but eventually fell when Jiri kept up an incredibly high pace, which isn't something Ankalaev is known for. Jiri landed 68 significant strikes through 1.5 rounds, Ankalaev hasn't exceeded 80 in either of his 5 rounds decisions. This fight probably goes to decision, someone wins it 29-28 and I expect the winner to only score around 70 DK points, but for $6800 I'm fine with that.

Leal has fought some good competition in PFL and has passed almost every test outside of actually winning a title. His takedown defense isn't great, but he should be able to get back up and for as long as it is standing, I favor him to win. Rinat gases out, and if Leal can put up any resistance to keep it standing, he will gas out even quicker
 

RDA will need to control this fight to win it, and he is normally pretty good at it. He never had success at 170lbs, but he was also taking on some phenomenal fighters in their prime like Covington, Usman, and Edwards. The longer this fight goes the more I favor RDA, but he is going to have to battle and grind for 15 minutes, while Neal will only need to land clean once to win.

Ige is willing to step in there against anyone, but this isn't a great matchup for him. Murphy is low volume, has good counter wrestling, and physically can match Ige pretty well. I don't think the winner of this fight scores more than 75pts so I won't be playing much of either side. The fight should be close but even if Ige wins it feels like he'll need others in this range to lose as well if he wants to outscore them.

He missed weight by nearly 10 lbs. I was going to recommend fading him, but he should be bigger and stronger than Farid to start the fight, so he has a bigger chance than I originally planned for. I still think Farid dominates him, but the added weight is a big question mark. If he does win it is probably by a flukey submission like a guillotine.

Barnett is a fun fighter, but this is a terrible matchup for him. Kennedy is known for just raising his guard high, absorbing strikes with his arm and then countering once you start to slow down and Barnett's only path to victory is a prayer that one of his massive strikes’ lands. With this height disadvantage that he is going to face I honestly don't even know if he can land a kick on Kennedy's chin. No one is going to play him, so if you want to make your lineup differently you can start here, but he likely loses this fight, and it isn't even close.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 308 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Whittaker, Holloway, Rakic, Ige, Ferreria

Topuria vs. Holloway UFC 308 Picks & Stats