UFC 307 DFS Picks & Lineups: Pereira vs. Rountree Cheat Sheet, 10/5

UFC 307: Pereira vs Rountree takes place this Saturday live from Salt Lake City Utah. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM EST on ESPN News/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. 

The Main Event features the most dangerous striker in the UFC, Alex Pereira taking on one of the most powerful strikers in lightweight division history, Khalil Rountree. Rountree isn’t a household name, but he is currently 3^rd in division history for the most knockdowns so any missteps by Pereira could spell the end of the night for Alex.

The Co-Main Event features a title bout between Raquel Pennington and Juliana Pena in a fight that was supposed to take place nearly ten years ago on the ultimate fighter so there is some bad blood between these two. 

Check out all the latest UFC 307 DFS picks and lineups,plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at my UFC 307 cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 307 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 307 DFS Picks & Lineups: Pereira vs. Rountree Cheat Sheet

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

An unexpected title shot for Khalil Rountree headlines UFC 307 against one of the most active fighters on the roster Alex Pereira. Both of these fighters like to keep it standing, and while both have shown durability issues in the past, I think this step up in competition for Rountree is going to be too much. Pereira eventually finds his left hand that has put down even the most durable fighters and gets the stoppage. If Pereira doesn't get the stoppage until R3 he may not get on the optimal lineup and at his elevated price he needs to score 110+ pts. I'll probably have 30% Pereira and 10-15% Rountree as if Rountree wins this fight it is going to be by KO and at his price he is going to hit the optimal lineup.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Kayla has been dominant in almost all of her fights and if she can get her wrestling going, she can score a ton of DK pts. This line has moved nearly 400 pts in the past few days, so it is getting a little wild, but she is rightfully the biggest favorite on the slate. I don't think this is going to look like a -1050 favorite but that could be good if Harrison has to go for multiple takedowns. I'll probably have more Harrison lineups than Pereira, but I fully expect her to face more resistance than the line indicates.

Almeida can easily KO Ihor in this spot, as he has a win over Pereira in kickboxing, so his skills are top notch. He is way behind anyone in the UFC in terms of grappling so if Ihor tries to wrestle he could be in trouble. Since Ihor isn't really a wrestler, I think Almeida eventually finds the KO.

Spann is going to score 100+ or under 30. Spann normally gasses out hard after the first round so if he doesn't get OSP out of there early this fight is going to get sloppy. Fighting at elevation isn't going to help his terrible gas tank so if this fight gets to the end of R1 I expect OSP to take over, but there is still a high chance OSP ends this fight early.

If Buckley fights this smart and tries to wrestle, he could get a bunch of takedowns and a ton of control time, but this is a very tough fight for him. Thompson is coming off a fight against Shavkat where he stopped most of the takedowns that came his way, and he is a much better wrestler than Buckley. If Buckley gets careless, he could get KO'd, but Thompson is over 40 and we've seen his chin go in a couple of fights now. Buckley is a clear step below in terms of finishing ability compared to the three fighters in front of him.

This fight is probably going to be a war, and in the past McGee was extremely durable but that has started to change. Means in chinny so one good shot could end him, but he is the better striker so as long as he avoids the power shots and some submissions when they scramble, he should be able to win this fight.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

This fight is more likely to get on the optimal lineup than the actual main event due to pricing. I'm going to have someone from this fight on almost all of my lineups and I'm backing Pennington here strictly due to Pena coming off a layoff. She has the better cardio and with this being at elevation I think that will be a huge part. Once Pena gets tired the takedowns will be there for Rocky and on top of control time and strikes in the clinch, 100 is likely her floor in a decision win.

Pena is explosive early and if she wasn't two years removed from her last fight, I would probably have her in front of Pennington. She is more likely to end this fight inside the distance and we've seen her takedown and gas out Nunes so if she can do that, she can do that against anyone in this division. I'll probably split this fight close to 50/50.

Alex is the more physical fighter in the matchup, and he could look to use his power striking or wrestling. Hernandez is another fighter that even though he fights at altitude has always had cardio issues, but if either one of these fighters ends this early it is going to be Hernandez.

Holland is the longer striker, and he should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. Dolidze is another fighter on this card who has cardio issues so once the first-round ends, I expect Holland to be able to take over the fight.

I don't love the midrange this week, so I'll be focusing on the underdogs. Rodriguez has been in there with the top of the division, and this is a massive step up for Lucindo. Rodriguez should be good enough to make this fight close, and in a close fight give me the woman who has been in there with multiple champions and title challengers.

Aldo is a similar play to Rodriguez. If your best weapon is leg kicks, you may struggle with Jose Aldo. This is another fight that I think should be close and it will likely be kept standing so in a fight where both fighters are landing similar numbers, I think Aldo will land the more impactful strikes.

Dolidze has fought as high as 205 and Holland used to fight at 170 so Dolidze should be strong enough to get some takedowns. If he gets this fight down early, he might be able to put up a big score, but personally I think Holland gets it done.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

Carla, at her best, is a takedown machine, and at this price a win with multiple takedowns would pay off the price. She just had a baby and is retiring after this fight, so it is tough to tell where her mind is at but I'm still going to have a fair share of her due to her wrestling upside.

I don't trust Means chin, and between the two of them I think someone is getting KO'd or Subbed. McGee's path to victory is him to survive the early part of the fight and turn it on late but with his chin looking worse lately I don't know if he makes it that far. If this gets to R3 he is alive.

Hubbard is going to be behind in R1 but has the cardio advantage and is crazy durable. His wrestling should be able to neutralize Hernandez later in the fight, but the early part of this fight is going to be greasy. I'm going to be looking to bet Hubbard live if he survives R1.

I'm not trusting Spann here and OSP looked great last time out. This is a common theme for the underdogs but again if OSP survives Round 1 Spann is going to fall off of a cliff. I wouldn't be shocked if OSP gets his infamous Van Preux choke in R2 and ends up retiring.

Thompson is a problem on the feet for anyone, and as a counter striker this is a good matchup for him. If he keeps it standing it is a close fight, but he won't score well on DK unless Buckley gets reckless. He likely scores 60 in a decision win so for him to hit the optimal he'll need others in this range to lose.

If Potieria tries to strike he is likely getting KO'd, if he has been working on his wrestling, he can likely get this fight down but anytime this fight is standing he is in danger. His ceiling is high, but his floor is literally 0 if he gets KO'd early.

Vieira is the rightful underdog, but this line is getting wild. She is the #2 fighter in the division for a reason and a BJJ black belt, so I expect her to hold up better on the ground than Holm did. If she wins, she hits the optimal lineup at this discounted price, and while that is a hard task, we have seen Harrison lose to a fighter of a similar style in her only career loss.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 307 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Pena, Rountree, Aldo, Rodriguez, Esparza

Pereira vs. Rountree UFC 307 Picks & Stats