UFC 304 DFS Picks & Playbook: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Cheat Sheet, 7/27

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 takes place this Saturday live from Manchester, England. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on ESPN2/ESPN+ and finally the Main Card at 10:00PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. 

This is an entertaining card in England where the Main Card is going to be starting around 4:00 AM local time, so expect a wild crowd. The Main Event features a rematch between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad from a fight that ended in a controversial eye poke. The Co-Main Event is another rematch as Tom Aspinall looks to avenge his loss to Curtis Blaydes that ended in Aspinall tearing his ACL.

Check out all the latest UFC 304 DFS picks, stats, predictions and matchup breakdowns for this weekend’s fight card below. As always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at some top UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 304, Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Main Event

A rematch of a fight that ended in controversy headlines our card this week. Edwards has far better striking and distance management, while Belal is the better wrestler. In the first matchup Edwards was doubling up Belal in total strikes, but I think Belal is a better wrestler now than he was then especially after training with Khabib this last camp. I do think Edwards wins this fight but it's tough for him to score 100+ especially in a matchup where Edwards is going to be worrying about takedowns and dealing with a lot of clinch work. If Belal wins, he is almost a lock for the optimal lineup so having 30% of him feels about right, for Edwards I'm capping my exposure at 25%.

Expensive Fighters

Aspinall has to make the top of the list. He gets his opponents out of there quickly, and even if he doesn’t, he'll have 5 rounds to work with. If Blaydes gets his wrestling going it could be a tough matchup, but I expect Aspinall to win in either the first or second round. 

Patterson is the much better wrestler so he should use it, get the takedowns early and find a submission. Even in a decision I expect him to have 8+ minutes of control time and land a bunch of takedowns.

Wood is 8 years younger than Pineda and I think he is a little better everywhere plus he'll get the hometown bump. I'm not going to go crazy with my exposure to him, but I do think he is one of the safer plays up here, I'm not sure he has the upside though as Pineda has been durable since his return to the UFC.

She has multiple wins scoring 90+ in a decision so even if she doesn't get the finish she can still score enough. McCann has also taken on a bunch of fights with 125lbers, but she is better suited for 115lbs. Her ability to mix in the wrestling and striking I think eventually gets her a late finish.

Parkin doesn't wrestle often but if he does, he'll dominate this fight as Brzeski has only stopped 28% of takedowns against him. There is a clear tier drop off after McCann, but I do think Parkin wins this fight and if he lands one takedown per round, he could end up getting a score up in the 90s.

Mid-Range Fighters

Loughran should be the more physical fighter here, and Hadley is coming up in weight class, so I expect him to have some size to him. His wrestling is pretty strong, and he showed in his last fight he can land 125+ significant strikes in a fight if needed so I expect his volume to be pretty strong.

Parsons can really wrestle, and Elliott has struggled to stop takedowns. It's a close fight and might get a little overlooked without closing the line compared to only $100 more for Loughran but I think he has the higher ceiling of the two.

This is another close fight in the mid-range, but if Mokaev wins it’s probably because of 4+ takedowns and a ton of control time. The bigger moments of the fight are going to come from Kape, so Mokaev is going to need to really control him to get a win, this gives him a huge ceiling in a win.

I'm targeting this fight on both sides, but slightly leaning towards CLD. CLD has power, and Rodrigues is getting older and has shown he is a little chinny at times. This fight is going to be chaos so I want any part of it I can get.

I like King Green to get a win, and actually have a bet on him already. He is the much better striker, and his takedown defense has improved so I think he can keep it standing. Paddy has been durable so a KO might be tough but 150 significant strikes is within reach.

This fight is pretty much a coinflip and while I don't love Prachnio in most matchups, he has a clear speed and volume advantage here. If this fight goes to a decision, I expect him to outland Modestas nearly 2:1 in the later rounds so an 80pt decision victory is a possibility. He does have to be careful of the power coming back at him though as Modestas has Round 1 KO power.

Kape is the better striker and if he can outmuscle Mokaev he can win this fight. Mokaev is still only 22 years old so learning a lesson and taking a loss here wouldn't surprise me.

Paydown Fighters

He's +300 to win this fight and while I don't think he wins; the line is too wide. Blaydes has an unmatched ceiling as he put up 174 pts in his only 5 round decisions. He technically has won this matchup already (via injury to Aspinall) but I don't think he looked out of place at the start of that fight. If he wins, he hits the optimal lineup guaranteed.

Elliott is only +120 for $7600 so he'll be a value play. He can wrestle a little bit himself, but he really has shown poor defensive wrestling. This feels like a fight where whoever gets the takedowns gets the win and if that is the case he makes for a good dog play.

I don't think Bannon is any good, and also don't think Alice is good either (even if she has 3 million followers on TikTok). Bannon is a decision fighter so she should get 15 minutes to score points, so she won't crush your lineups in a loss if she gets to work that whole time.

To beat McCann, you need to put up a lot of volume, so in a win I think she scores well. With this fight likely getting to decision Brasil should be able to put up 30+ even in a loss so she isn't a bad punt play in cash lineups.

Patterson was chinny at 155 lbs but since he moved up, he's been more durable. I don't like targeting Patterson when his advantage on the ground is so massive, but early Round 1 Crosbie is live for the KO. He is a KO or bust fighter and has some of the highest upside for the low-priced fighters.

Hadley has never landed 100+ significant strikes and he doesn't wrestle. With 14 fights on this card, I'm looking to target upside and Hadley doesn't really offer it. If he wins a low volume decision, you'll also need no other dogs in this price range to win to hit the optimal.

Another low volume striker. He is more technical than Allen, but he really just doesn't do enough to be worth it on DK. If Allen could survive 25 minutes with Max Holloway, I think he'll be able to do it here as well.

Wood is constantly a massive favorite despite being a disappointment in his UFC career. Pineda can wrestle and throws decent volume, so even though I think he'll be a step behind Wood, I do think he is worth taking a shot on in some lineups.

Sample UFC 304 DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

• Belal, Blaydes, Prachnio, Kape

Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 UFC 304 Picks & Stats