MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Yusuff vs Barboza Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza kicks off from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada with the Prelims at 4:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. Up-and-coming Sodiq Yusuff takes on the owner of some of the best KO highlights in the UFC in Edson Barboza. This fight will be a back-and-forth striking affair that should offer plenty of action. The co-main event this week features former title challenger Jennifer Maia taking on the highly talented Viviane Araujo
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sodiq Yusuff vs Edson Barboza | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Low | -165/+140 | 140./200. |
The main event this week is headlined by two strikers in what should be a back-and-forth fight. Barboza is 3-3 since moving down to the 145lb division but he has faced fighters who are staples in the top 15 such as Bryce Mitchell, Dan Ige, and Giga Chikadze. Yusuff is 6-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming to Arnold Allen, but his wins aren't against the same level of competition as Barboza's. On the feet, these two are pretty even and I expect Yusuff to be able to outland Barboza in terms of volume, but Barboza has some of the best kicks in the UFC so if he lands some powerful shots, he can sway the judges with the damage he deals. I'm leaning towards Yusuff and the superior volume, but this fight isn't one that I'm willing to take a heavy stance on. Neither of these fighters utilize wrestling much, so it should be 25 minutes of fighting on the feet and there is a chance that the winner only lands 125-150 strikes which wouldn't be enough to get on the optimal lineup. I'm likely playing around 30% Yusuff, 20-30% Barboza and fading this fight in about 40% of my lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Terrance McKinney | 9500 | Brendon Marotte | Somewhat-Safe | -535 | -450 |
| T-wrecks were supposed to fight a few weeks from now but were rescheduled to this card. McKinney always comes out extremely fast and his kill-or-be-kill style is perfect for DraftKings. Marotte is nearly impossible to figure out for this slate as when searching for fights the most recent ones I could find and film on were from 2020, so it's hard to really tell what improvements he has made in his recent fights but the fact he was taking on fighters with 11-20 records this late in his career is probably a red flag. McKinney should have more power, better wrestling, and better submission skills for the first five minutes but if Marotte survives the first round, we may see McKinney fall off a cliff like he has in the past. I'll probably have McKinney in about 50% of my lineups. | |||||
| Edgar Chairez | 9200 | Daniel Lacerda | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | -200 |
| This fight just happened and was ruled a no-contest after Chairez choked out Lacerda. Lacerda is probably going to come out with the same game plan of trying to wrestle early, but eventually, Chairez is going to catch him unless Lacerda and his 3 minutes of cardio can land a hail mary punch early. Chairez and McKinney are the two fighters on the slate most likely to win ITD, and I'm leaning towards Chairez only for the $300 in savings if I had to pick one, but both are great plays in the high price range this week. | |||||
| Emily Ducote | 9300 | Ashley Yoder | Somewhat-Safe | -395 | +105 |
| Ducote throws a ton of volume and has good takedown defense which I'm suspecting she'll need in this matchup with Yoder. Yoder at her best is a 50/50 fighter in the UFC, and at 36 years old and coming off of a two-year layoff I doubt we see the best version of her. If this fight gets to the ground Ducote may struggle, but I'm confident that she'll be able to avoid being on the ground for long. Ducote wins this fight fairly easily, and even in a decision she likely scores 120+ strikes so she has a pretty good floor, but with Chairez and McKinney priced around her, I expect her to get overlooked. | |||||
| Tainara Lisboa | 9400 | Ravena Oliveira | Moderate | -325 | -105 |
| Lisboa has both striking and submission skills and looks to be a much more technical fighter. Oliveira has no problem running into the pocket to trade shots based on some of her last few fights and that can be a dangerous game with Lisboa. I think Lisboa finds the finish here, but her being controlled for the majority of her last fight against Jessica Rose Clark is a huge red flag, especially with the frequency I've seen Oliveira hunt takedowns. I think she'll end up being one of the higher-owned fighters on the slate as people are going to be looking to avoid the mid-range this week. | |||||
| TJ Brown | 8800 | Darren Elkins | Moderate | -180 | 180. |
| Any fight against Darren Elkins is always going to be a war. Elkins is slowing down, and Brown should have much better striking especially early in this fight. If Brown can't get Elkins out of there early, this fight could get greasy the later it goes but eventually Elkins chin is going to give up on him and it could be as early as this weekend. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Melissa Dixon | 8600 | Irina Alekseeva | Moderate | -148 | +215 |
| Dixon is likely the lower owned of these two fighters, so she makes a decent leverage play. Dixon should have a technical striking advantage and a wrestling advantage but Alekseeva is a threat to pull guard and hunt for submissions. Alekseeva attempted nearly 50 strikes in her last fight which lasted only two minutes, so she has no problem pushing a crazy pace to try to end a fight. I think this fight is going to be a sneaky contender for the winner ending up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Michel Pereira | 8600 | Andre Petroski | Moderate | -205 | 110. |
| Pereira is normally the more aggressive fighter in his contests, but Petroski is going to come out shooting takedowns from the minute this fight starts. Pereira hasn't shown great takedown defense, but as long as he survives the early parts of this fight, he should be the fresher fighter once this hits round 2/3. This fight is up at 185lbs after Pereira missed the 170lb pretty badly last time out so there is a chance he is giving up strength to Petroski up at this new weight class but prior to the UFC he used to fight as high as 205lbs so I think he should be fine. Pereira by R2 KO. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 8000 | Adrian Yanez | Somewhat-Risky | -108 | 215. |
| I'm leaning toward Martinez in this toss-up fight. Yanez is going to look to push forward, and it should present the perfect opportunity for Martinez to find counterpunches. Yanez was brutally KO'd by Rob Font last time out and Font is far from a power puncher, so it looks like the step up in competition was too much for Yanez at this point. I think Martinez is closer in talent to Rob Font than he is to other fighters Yanez has beaten such as Tony Kelley, so I'll be leaning toward Martinez to win a tightly contested decision. | |||||
| Jennifer Maia | 8500 | Viviane Araujo | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 650. |
| This is a pretty evenly matched fight but I'm giving the lean towards Maia because she is coming off of back-to-back wins where she landed 100+ strikes. Maia has the volume, but she'll need to avoid being taken down if she is going to win this fight. I may just be a fade altogether as I don't think Maia gets the finish and without the finish, it's tough to see a path for Maia to put up 90+ points in this matchup. | |||||
| Adrian Yanez | 8200 | Jonathan Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | 180. |
| Yanez starts fast, and he has a ton of early KO wins on his UFC resume, so he isn't someone I'm looking to fade here. He was just KO'd 6 months ago and has been wobbled in a bunch of his other fights, so his chin is a major concern here. After being KO'd sometimes a fighter will come out hesitant, but I doubt Yanez changes his approach, so I'm still looking for him to swarm early and with that early pressure could come a huge score on DK. | |||||
| Christian Rodriguez | 8400 | Cameron Saaiman | Somewhat-Risky | -162 | 250. |
| This is one of the harder fights for me to break down on this card which is why I'm ranking it down here. Rodriguez is tough, and has shown he can fight through adversity, and has both wrestling and striking skills. I'm going to make Rodriguez my official pick, but I'll probably have 20-30% of both of these fighters in my lineup. | |||||
| Cameron Saaiman | 7800 | Christian Rodriguez | Risky | +136 | +225 |
| Saaiman lands more volume than Rodriguez and has a ton of finishes in his young UFC career, but he hasn't fought the same competition that Rodriguez has in the UFC. I think this one is a sneaky contender for fight of the night and while I'm picking Rodriguez to get the win, you can't ignore someone who has a floor close to 75-80 even in a decision win. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Andre Petroski | 7600 | Michel Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | 400. |
| Petroski has a clear wrestling advantage and has decent power in his hands although I doubt, he'll want to use that against Pereira's wild striking. Wrestling is the best way to get a high score on DK, so I expect him to be around 30% owned as any type of win likely means he hits the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Darren Elkins | 7400 | TJ Brown | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 330. |
| Elkins is always a bloody mess so it's tough for him to win decisions with blood all over him, but Brown is a pretty good matchup for him. If Elkins can survive the early part of the fight, he should take over later. I'm taking a long-shot bet on Elkins R2/3. | |||||
| Heili Alatengheili | 7200 | Chris Gutierrez | Risky | 230 | 500 |
| This fight should be a low-volume affair which is why I'm avoiding Gutierrez. Alateng has been in some wars in the UFC, and he is always moving forward so for a fight that I think reaches the judges’ scorecards I'm going to play the underdog as if this goes to the full 15 minutes, I don't think Gutierrez does enough to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Ravena Oliveira | 6800 | Tainara Lisboa | Risky | 260 | 550. |
| Oliveira seems willing to exchange shots, and her clinch work is decent. If she can get the fight to the ground and maintain top control, she could win this fight based on control time. I don't think her skills are better than Lisboa, but she is aggressive, and in this sport sometimes aggression is enough to win a fight. | |||||
| Brendon Marotte | 6700 | Terrance McKinney | Risky | +400 | +600 |
| I don't think Marotte will win this fight, but he probably ends up around 8% owned in tournaments and with his upside due to McKinney dancing, I have to at least give him some chance of reaching the optimal lineup. Marotte is going to be giving up speed, strength, and technical ability in this fight, but he does have cardio on his side. I can't find any footage of his last two wins which is pretty concerning since those are his only fights since 2020 but this fight is more about McKinney than Marotte. If he survives the first round, he's probably the favorite to win the fight and as the cheapest fighter on the slate, and the lowest owned he is the ideal contrarian play in case McKinney slips on a banana peel. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Barboza, Elkins, Saaiman, Martinez
Picks and Stats
Sodiq Yusuff | vs | Edson Barboza |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 23-11-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 13 |
9 | Subs | 2 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jennifer Maia | vs | Viviane Araujo |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 21-9-1 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
13 | Subs | 10 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Jonathan Martinez | vs | Adrian Yanez |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 12 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-108 | Vegas Odds | -112 |
Andre Petroski | vs | Michel Pereira |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 28-11-0 (2 NC) |
1 | Knockouts | 12 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Edgar Chairez | vs | Daniel Lacerda |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
-355 | Vegas Odds | 280 |
0 | ||
Christian Rodriguez | vs | Cameron Saaiman |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 13 |
6 | Subs | 3 |
-162 | Vegas Odds | 136 |
Darren Elkins | vs | TJ Brown |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 27-11-0 | Record | Record: 17-10-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 2 |
13 | Subs | 10 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Tainara Lisboa | vs | Ravena Oliveira |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 6-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Subs | 10 |
-325 | Vegas Odds | 260 |
Terrance McKinney | vs | Brendon Marotte |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-535 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
Irina Alekseeva | vs | Melissa Dixon |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
124 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
Chris Gutierrez | vs | Alatengheili |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 19-5-2 | Record | Record: 16-8-2 |
3 | Knockouts | 10 |
4 | Subs | 13 |
-270 | Vegas Odds | +230 |