MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Vettori vs Cannonier Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Cannonier kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10:00. The Italian Dream, Marvin Vettori, looks to get back in title contention against another former title challenger in Cannonier with what an action-packed main event for likely 25 minutes should be as neither of these men have ever been finished at 185lbs. In the co-main event, we have top 155lb prospect Armen Tsarukyan coming in as the highest priced DraftKings play of the year, trying to get into the top five of the division against long time UFC veteran Joakim Silva. Tsarukyan will look to use his well rounded striking and wrestling game plan to get through the tough Silva.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Low | -125/+105 | +500/+240 |
| Two of the best middleweights in the world’s main event the card this week in what should be an exciting striking battle. Cannonier has more power, having fought as high as heavyweight in his career, but Vettori has been one of the most durable fighters in the history of the division. I expect Vettori to land more and maybe mix in his wrestling so I'm leaning towards him here because I do think this fight does make it to the judges’ scorecards. Cannonier should be landing the more impactful strikes, and he does have the power to KO anyone in the division if he lands clean, but I expect him to land under 100 strikes while Vettori may be up in the 130-140 range. I think this fight makes for a great stack in cash games at their price, and I'll have a little of both sides in large field tournaments, but if the fight does go to decision I wouldn't be surprised if the winner only scores around 85. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 9800 | Joaquim Silva | Somewhat-Safe | -1000 | -350 |
| He's -1000 for a reason this week, but he's priced at $9800 which I haven't seen since Khamzat a few years ago. He has the advantage everywhere as long as he just avoids a big shot from Silva. I think Tsarukyan will opt to use his wrestling since he really has an advantage on the group so I'm expecting him to score extremely well. He's a lock for cash games and should be used in a bunch of your tournament lineups. | |||||
| Manuel Torres | 8900 | Nikolas Motta | Somewhat-Safe | -188 | +120 |
| I'm putting Torres up here only because of how much I like him for GPPs. From everything that we have seen from Torres, he is going to come forward and look to land a ton of strikes. He's attempting nearly 20 strikes per minute and landing at over 50% through his two UFC fights if you include his fight on the Contender Series so if he wins here, I'm expecting a huge score. I've only seen Max Holloway put that type of pace on someone and not eventually gas out so if this fight goes more than 7.5 minutes I'm concerned Torres gasses out, but I think he'll find the finish before then. | |||||
| Alessandro Costa | 9400 | Jimmy Flick | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | -125 |
| This is more of a play on Flick's terrible chin than on Costa. Flick has been knocked out five times in his career and there is a chance that he comes out here and gets sparked in the first minute of the fight, so Costa has a huge ceiling. You aren't going to be able to make a lineup with Tsarukyan and Costa in it unless you decide on playing 3 big underdogs and with a small amount of fights this week, I don't think it is viable. I'll be looking to split my exposure approximately 60/40 between Tsarukyan and Costa. | |||||
| Tereza Bleda | 9500 | Gabriella Fernandes | Moderate | -225 | +200 |
| Bleda showed a surprisingly good account of herself in her loss against Natalia Silva, so I expect her to get the win here against Fernandes using her clinching and cage control to score pretty well. Between the three highest priced fighters I expect her to be the lowest owned, so if you really want you can play her in large field GPPs, but I'll be looking elsewhere. | |||||
| Pat Sabatini | 9100 | Lucas Almeida | Moderate | -188 | +175 |
| Sabatini is tough to judge, especially in this matchup against a fairly good striker in Almeida. Pat has been able to secure 5 or more takedowns in multiple fights and if this fight makes it to the judges, he probably will need to get a bunch if he is going to win. He doesn't throw much striking volume which is a concern if he doesn't get the takedowns, but the biggest concern I have here is his chin. He has a high ceiling because of his ability to get takedowns, but he may also get knocked out in the first few minutes. I'll be underweighted to him compared to others in this price range. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 8700 | Dan Argueta | Moderate | -188 | +240 |
| Lawrence loves to use his wrestling when he has the advantage, and even if it stays standing, I think he has an advantage. He may not be able to find a finish in this matchup but if it goes to decision I wouldn't be surprised if he still scored 90+ points. | |||||
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 8600 | Armen Petrosyan | Moderate | -163 | +163 |
| This is a good test for Duncan against Petrosyan. I'm expecting both of these guys to want to stand and trade in the pocket so someone should be scoring well. Duncan only has 8 career professional fights so I'm not going to be overweight on him (probably will end up in about 25-30% of my lineups) but he has the ability to knockout Armen and if he finishes him early, he likely ends up on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Denys Bondar | 7900 | Carlos Hernandez | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | +300 |
| I'm not sure if Bondar is all that good and he is coming off a fight ending injury so there are some red flags, but at $7900 against a fighter who has limited takedown defense I can see him winning this fight. He probably ends up pretty chalky as the favorite in the fight at an underdogs price tag, but it shouldn't get too out of control with the main event being priced right above him. | |||||
| Armen Petrosyan | 7600 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +500 |
| Petrosyan throws a ton of volume and has proved he can go three hard fought rounds before so if this fight gets into round 3, he should be the favorite to win the round. Even when fighting against wrestlers who are trying to hold him against the cage, he still lands at nearly 6 strikes a minute so as long as he can stay separated from Duncan, he should be able to score well in a win. | |||||
| Carlos Hernandez | 8300 | Denys Bondar | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +300 |
| Hernandez throws decent volume and mixes in his wrestling (which I don't expect here) and should come in as one of the lowest owned fighters on the card. Bondar was injured in his last fight, and it remains to be seen how that will affect him going forward so Hernandez is worth a shot here. I'll have Hernandez in about 15% of my lineups and I think that will be enough to be overweight to the field. | |||||
| Dan Argueta | 7500 | Ronnie Lawrence | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +500 |
| Argueta has decent wrestling of his own, but I think he is undersized in this matchup and will be behind if it stays standing. I'm likely fading Argueta for other options in this price range. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 7400 | Cristian Quinonez | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +450 |
| Kang mixes up his wrestling and striking which should be enough for him to come out on top against Quinonez in most exchanges. Kang should be one of the higher owned fighters in this price range, but that won't stop me from having a bunch of him in my lineups. | |||||
| Lucas Almeida | 7100 | Pat Sabatini | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +200 |
| Almeida is an excellent value at his price, and he has the power to knock Sabatini out cold. As long as he stays off the ground, he is going to win rounds against Sabatini strictly off of volume. | |||||
| Jimmy Flick | 6800 | Alessandro Costa | Risky | +210 | +300 |
| Flick is a submission or bust fighter, so he has the ceiling you need to win a GPP. I won't be playing much of him, but he should be able to win by submission if the majority of this fight takes place on the ground. | |||||
| Nikolas Motta | 7300 | Manuel Torres | Risky | +150 | +163 |
| Motta has power and even came in as a big favorite over Jim Miller, but he doesn't throw much volume. Torres is going to our work him for as long as this fight goes, but if Motta can land one of his power’s shots, he has the power to end the fight. Him winning inside the distance is almost the exact same line as him to win which shows just how reliant he is on getting the finish. | |||||
| Gabriella Fernandes | 6700 | Tereza Bleda | Risky | +180 | +450 |
| Fernandes was just outwrestled for nearly the whole fight in her debut against Jasmine Jasudavicius, but Bleda isn't as good of a wrestler as her. Bleda is going to try and hold her against the cage the whole time, so she'll need to make the most of it while they are separated. If she wasn't priced at $6700, I'd be fading her in this matchup but with such great plays at the high end she can make sense if you want to force in two of the high-priced fighters. | |||||
| Nicolas Dalby | 7000 | Muslim Salikhov | Risky | +160 | +600 |
| Salikhov is always involved in low volume fights, so I don't really want any of this matchup. If I play anyone from it, I'd have some Dalby only because of the price but I don't think the winner of this fight scores more than 70-75pts unless someone gets knocked out. | |||||
| Joaquim Silva | 6400 | Arman Tsarukyan | Risky | +600 | +900 |
| Silva is a huge underdog and needs a KO to get the win. I'll likely be fading him because he only wins this fight about 1 every 10 times, but at $6400 you can make some pretty good lineups if you do catch lightning in a bottle. | |||||
| Zac Pauga | 7200 | Modestas Bukauskas | Risky | +150 | +300 |
| Pauga was an undersized heavyweight on his season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and I thought moving back down to 205 would help him, but he looked terrible. He fought Jordan Wright last time out and Wright is known for action packed fights, but Pauga just help him against the cage and was the only fighter ever to go to decision against Jordan. Bukauskas is extremely calculated with his striking so this wasn't going to be a high-volume fight to begin with, mix in Pauga's game plan of just stalling opponents against the cage and this could be painful to watch. I can't X out all of the underdogs, so I'll end up playing some Pauga, but he really doesn't have the upside to win a GPP unless no one else in the low tier wins their fights. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Vettori, Almeida, Kang, Bondar, Petrosyan
Stats and Picks
Marvin Vettori | vs | Jared Cannonier |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 19-6-1 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 10 |
9 | Subs | 2 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Arman Tsarukyan | vs | Joaquim Silva |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Armen Petrosyan | vs | Christian Leroy Duncan |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
Pat Sabatini | vs | Lucas Almeida |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 9 |
10 | Subs | 5 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Manuel Torres | vs | Nikolas Motta |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
0 | ||
Nicolas Dalby | vs | Muslim Salikhov |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 21-4-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 13 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Jimmy Flick | vs | Alessandro Costa |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 7 |
14 | Subs | 3 |
+210 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
Kyung Ho Kang | vs | Cristian Quinonez |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 18-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 10 |
11 | Subs | 3 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
Carlos Hernandez | vs | Denys Bondar |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
Tereza Bleda | vs | Gabriella Fernandes |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Dan Argueta | vs | Ronnie Lawrence |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
Zac Pauga | vs | Modestas Bukauskas |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 9 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
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