MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Song vs Gutierrez Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
This card was originally supposed to take place in Shanghai but was recently relocated to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The Main Event gives us top prospect Song Yadong facing veteran Chris Gutierrez in what should be a strikers delight as both men look to make a statement to move up in the division. The Co-Main Event features former title challenger Anthony “Lionheart” Smith vs Khalil Rountree which could be a blink-and-you-miss-it type fight as both fighters have massive power. The prelims start on ESPN+ at 7:30PM EST followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 10:00 PM.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Song vs Gutierrez
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Low | -380/ +300 | 110./800. |
| This card was supposed to be the UFC Shanghai card but was relocated to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, so we do have a few late-notice replacements and some new matchups. The Main Event stays the same with Song Yadong taking on Chris Guttierrez. Yadong is the better boxer and probably the better wrestler if he looks to use it, but I think this fight stays standing. Yadong should be able to manage the distance and Gutierrez lacks the power in his striking to be able to deter Song from entering the pocket. Gutierrez has solid kicks so I'm expecting him to try to beat up the legs of Yadong to slow him down, but I don't think it will be enough as Yadong wins by late finish or by decision. I think the winner of this fight probably lands around 125-170 significant strikes if it goes to decision so while that would be a great score, I don't think it is a must-play if you want to look at other options. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| HyunSung Park | 9500 | Shannon Ross | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | 120. |
| He's the better wrestler, and while he isn't the better striker if this was shadowboxing, he has something that Ross doesn't which is a solid chin. Ross is not able to take any damage in his recent fight as he's been KO'd by an early shot in both of them. I'm actually surprised the UFC is giving Ross another shot here, but it is likely because they know a highlight KO is in the cards for Park. | |||||
| Tatsuro Taira | 9400 | Carlos Hernandez | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | -125 |
| Taira has dominated in the UFC so far and I don't think this is any different. He should be able to get Hernandez because everyone who has fought Hernandez so far has been able to, and once he gets him down, I don't think he gets back up for the rest of the round. Taira either wins a dominant decision or wins by submission. If for some reason he can't get a takedown, this fight is going to be very close so let's up he can just get the fight where he wants it. | |||||
| Melquizael Costa | 9000 | Steve Garcia | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | -115 |
| This is rescheduled from last week when Garcia was sick and had to go to the hospital, so the fight was canceled so the breakdown is basically the same. Costa is the more polished striker and wrestler, but Garcia has more power. I don't think this fight gets to the judges’ scorecards, so someone is going to score well, but I think Costa is able to weather the early storm and find the KO. | |||||
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8900 | Anthony Smith | Moderate | -205 | -150 |
| Rountree really excels when he lands heavy kicks, and this is a matchup against Smith where his strengths match up perfectly with what Smith struggles at defending. Khalil likely either lands a bunch of nasty low kicks and wins this fight by KO, or Anthony Smith grinds to a snail’s pace against the fence and wears on Rountree. It won't be an easy fight for $8900 but he has the upside to score extremely well. | |||||
| Nasrat Haqparast | 8700 | Jamie Mullarkey | Moderate | -192 | 275. |
| Haqparast is the more talented striker, but he has failed over and over again to live up to his hype. He needs to keep the fight standing because Mullarkey is the stronger wrestler, but Mullarkey has been getting KO'd lately, so it'll be interesting if he has the desire to enter the pocket to land any takedowns. On most slates I would look past Nasrat and his decision style, but with only 11 fights and having decent odds value I expect him to get some ownership. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tim Elliott | 8400 | #N/A | Moderate | -135 | #N/A |
| Elliott comes in on short notice but I'm hoping he is motivated for this fight. Elliott is coming off of a tough loss to Mokaev where he just needed to survive R3 to get the victory but unfortunately, he was choked out, but Mokaev is a top 10 fighter in the division so this is a major step back for Elliott. Tim is the better wrestler and more dynamic striker, but he needs to be careful of Sumaderji's straight punches down the middle. I think Tim can do enough to get the win as long as he avoids the big shot. Since this is a late replacement, we still don't have ITD lines, but if Elliott by Submission opens up at +350 or more, I'll be taking a stab at it. | |||||
| Kevin Jousset | 8500 | Song Kenan | Moderate | -155 | 165. |
| Kenan likes to bring the heat and has power but he's also aging and has been getting knocked down in almost every fight recently. Jousset has the well-rounded skill set to win this fight, and if he lands clean, he can easily KO Kenan. I'll be playing both sides of this fight but since I don't really trust anyone in the 8300-8800 range Jousset is one of the few who doesn't have too many question marks. | |||||
| Rayanne Amanda | 8300 | Talita Alencar | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | 250. |
| We don't have any fighters in the 8000-8200 range, so I expect Amanda to be highly owned at -166 and only $8300. Both of these girls love to go for submissions so I expect this fight to take place on the ground and whoever has the better wrestling should be able to control the fight. I think that is Amanda (her last name is Dos Santos on some sites), so I'll be leaning towards her, but both fighters are in play as this is extremely low-level MMA between two women who are 28+ years old so they aren't any sort of major prospects. | |||||
| Talita Alencar | 7900 | Rayanne Amanda | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 400. |
| I'm going to put Alencar here because I think she is a sneaky play and if she wins it's probably by submission. This is not a play if you are entering double-ups or head-to-heads, but if you are in large tournaments and want to try to get different, she is a good play. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 7600 | Luana Santos | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 380. |
| Santos is talented but at only 23 she is going to be moving up a weight class against Egger here. From the limited tape I could find on Santos she looked to be more about putting her weight on her opponent to get takedowns but I'm not sure that is going to work up a division. I'm taking Egger to win the fight straight up, and while it may be tough for her to find a submission to really score well, there are only 11 fights and multiple fighters are massive underdogs so any win from a fighter under $8000 is going to be gold on this slate. | |||||
| Luana Santos | 8600 | Stephanie Egger | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 200. |
| I have to mention Santos only because of her last fight against Miller. Miller couldn't earn the respect of Santos, so Santos just marched her down and pummeled her landing over 60 strikes in a fight that didn't even last five minutes. If Egger can't earn her respect she is going to walk through Egger, she also is the better submission specialist if she gets in a good position, but I think she will struggle with Egger's strength here. | |||||
| Song Kenan | 7700 | Kevin Jousset | Risky | 130 | 275. |
| Kenan has 8 fights in the UFC and in those fights, he has a knockdown in 5 of them, and he has been knocked down in 2 of them. He probably needs to KO Jousset to get the win, and even if he doesn’t, he throws enough volume that the winner of this fight will need to wrestle, or land 100+ strikes to get the win. Kenan is a great dance partner for a high DK score and sometimes he's the one to come away with the huge score. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Su Sumudaerji | 7100 | #N/A | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | #N/A |
| His price is off by about $800 based on his odds so he will be one of the highest owned dogs. He has the power advantage, but his Achilles’ heel has always been his takedown defense and he'll have to prove that he fixed that because Elliott is going to try to wrestle at some point. Elliott admitted he has only been in the gym two times for serious training since his last fight, so it'll be interesting how this fight looks once the second round starts. If Sumudaerji survives the first round I may take a stab on him to win as a live bet. | |||||
| Andre Muniz | 7400 | JunYong Park | Somewhat-Risky | 145 | 250. |
| Muniz is a different class than what Park has been facing when it comes to submission fighters, and I think this is a great matchup for him. Muniz struggled against Paul Craig who could match him on the ground, and Allen who seems like a top 5-8 fighter in the division, but this is a major step back. Park is a good wrestler, but I think he tries to keep it standing here so Muniz will have to do his own work to get the fight to the ground. Either way I feel like Muniz is going to be able to find the submission in this matchup as Park is a defensive liability once the fight hits the mat. | |||||
| Steve Garcia | 7200 | Melquizael Costa | Risky | 215 | 300. |
| Garcia has 7 fights in the UFC and he and his opponents have a combined 10 knockdowns in those fights, so he comes in looking to throw leather. His only fight that didn't have a knockdown which is also his only fight to go to decision, his opponent racked up 14 minutes of control time in a 15-round fight. Garcia isn't technical, but he is going to move forward and look to get the early KO. This fight is going to be chaos, I want to have one side in almost all of my lineups. | |||||
| Anthony Smith | 7300 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Risky | 170 | 300. |
| Smith is the better wrestler and has fought at a higher level than Rountree when he is at his best, but this isn't the prime Anthony Smith that went to war with Jon Jones. Smith must have seen something when analyzing this fight because this is a weird matchup for him to take on short notice, but at his best, he can control Khalil against the cage, get some takedowns and possibly find a submission win. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 7500 | Nasrat Haqparast | Risky | 160 | 450. |
| I probably should have Mullarkey higher, but I honestly just don't trust him here. I don't think he has a path to a finish, maybe he can use his wrestling and chain wrestle to get the win, but it is going to be a tough matchup for him. | |||||
| Shannon Ross | 6700 | HyunSung Park | Risky | 440 | 750. |
| Ross can strike, if his chin ever holds up. I doubt he can make it three full rounds, but maybe he lands something early and gets a quick win. I probably won't play any of him in my lineups. | |||||
| Carlos Hernandez | 6800 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | 440 | 1,000 |
| Hernandez is actually a well-rounded fighter, and he can mix in takedowns and striking but Taira's wrestling is going to be too much for him. I think if he wins it's probably a sloppy fight and he only scores 60-70pts, so I probably won't be using him in any lineups. If you want to punt, I think Ross is the better play only because there is a chance, he can land some clean strikes and KO Park. | |||||
Sample UFC DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Muniz, Egger, Kenan, Gutierrez
Picks and Stats
Song Yadong | vs | Chris Gutierrez |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 20-7-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-5-2 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-380 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
Anthony Smith | vs | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 37-18-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC) |
20 | Knockouts | 8 |
14 | Subs | 0 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Nasrat Haqparast | vs | Jamie Mullarkey |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 13 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Sumudaerji |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 20-13-1 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 10 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +114 |
JunYong Park | vs | Andre Muniz |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 23-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
6 | Subs | 15 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
0 | ||
Song Kenan | vs | Kevin Jousset |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 20-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
HyunSung Park | vs | Shannon Ross |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | 440 |
Steve Garcia | vs | Melquizael Costa |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-6-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
215 | Vegas Odds | -265 |
Luana Santos | vs | Stephanie Egger |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Tatsuro Taira | vs | Carlos Hernandez |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 0 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | 440 |
Rayanne Amanda | vs | Talita Alencar |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-1 |
2 | Knockouts | 0 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | 140 |