MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night January 13: Top DraftKings Picks
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Strickland kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Strickland
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov | 7700/8700 | - | Stackability: Medium | +115/ -130 | +275/+180 |
| The Main Event this week takes place up at 205 lbs after Sean Strickland stepped in on short notice to replace Kelvin Gasteluem. Strickland headlined the last card of 2022 in a five-round fight with Cannonier so I'm nervous he isn't really ready for this fight here. With that said Strickland has faced the best of the best in the weight class so this should be a step down in competition for him. I expect this fight to be close early, but Strickland to run away with it late as long as his cardio holds up in this short-notice fight. At only $7700 Strickland will be one of, if not the highest-owned fighter on the slate. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mateusz Rebecki | 9400 | Nick Fiore | Somewhat-Safe | -740 | -280 |
| Rebecki is a massive favorite here against Fiore and with -280 odds to win by finish, he is the safest play on the slate. Rebecki is going to look to wrestle right out of the gate which we love to see for DraftKings scoring, mix that in with his ability to find the finish and we get a ceiling that is as high as anyone else's on the slate. He'll be highly owned and for good reason. | |||||
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 9300 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Safe | -975 | +200 |
| This line is getting wider and wider as we get closer to fight day and we see Umar now at nearly -1000, but still, only +200 to finish inside the distance. Raoni is a massive step up in competition for him so he may not find the finish, but even in a decision we have seen that Umar can score a ton of points for us by landing a ton of takedowns (averaging 5 per 15 minutes). I'm confident he gets it done here and for DFS purposes he is in play, but this line should be closer to where it was to start the week at around -550. | |||||
| Javid Basharat | 9200 | Mateus Mendonca | Moderate | -315 | +130 |
| A sneaky good fight as both are undefeated in this matchup. Basharat is well-rounded and has a good fight IQ, so I expect him to get the win here, but Mendonca is explosive, so he needs to be careful. Mendonca has one of the craziest resumes I have ever seen, he made his pro debut July 2019 and by December 2019 he already had 7 professional fights. I'm taking Basharat here, but this fight is going to be closer than the line suggests. | |||||
| Charles Johnson | 9000 | Jimmy Flick | Moderate | -340 | -135 |
| Johnson showed he can get up from takedowns in his first fight in the UFC against Mokaev and he'll need to keep it standing against submission specialist Flick. Johnson is the better striker and should have better cardio as well so the longer the fight goes the more it favors Johnson. I'm taking Johnson by second-round KO. | |||||
| Allan Nascimento | 9100 | Carlos Hernandez | Moderate | -330 | +165 |
| Both of these fighters look for submission so at some point this fight is going to hit the ground. I think Nascimento has the advantage, but Hernandez should be able to hold his own. These two fighters have a combined 2 knockouts and 16 submission wins and neither fighter has been KO'd before. I'm taking Nascimento to win by decision, but he should do enough on volume to score decent. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Argueta | 8600 | Nick Aguirre | Moderate | -520 | -125 |
| Argueta is going to be the highest-owned fighter on the slate as a massive favorite at only $8600 after his original opponent dropped out of the fight. Argueta should be able to use his wrestling here, but he'll need to watch out for the submission coming back his way from Aguirre. Aguirre has 7 professional fights and has 3 KOs and 4 submissions with all but one coming in the first round so look for him to come out fast to start the fight. If Argueta survives early and doesn't find a finish of his own, I expect him to take over once the fight hits the late second and third rounds. | |||||
| Sijara Eubanks | 8800 | Priscila Cachoeira | Moderate | -240 | +110 |
| Eubanks has the wrestling and BJJ to sub Cachoeira in the first round and score massively and like most of her fights, I expect Eubanks to look incredible to start the fight. Eubanks major issue is that after round 1 she gasses and the wheel completely falls off. If you look back at her fight against Pannie Kianzad, she gets a takedown in round 1 and controls almost the entire round, and still, in Round 2 she comes out tired, and by halfway, through the round, you can tell she isn't going to win the fight. Cachoeira isn't talented but she has heart and grit so if Eubanks comes out flat after the first round this fight is up for grabs. I'll be heavy on this fight in my lineups since the two outcomes both score well, Eubanks as the favorite finding an early finish or Cachoeira getting the late stoppage. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 8400 | Damon Jackson | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +240 |
| A major step back in competition for Ige here and I think he shows us why he has been fighting at the top of the division the last few years. Ige is well-rounded and has a major advantage on the feet in this fight so if he keeps it standing, he wins. Jackson is pretty durable so he may not score well and with others in this price range having higher ceilings I think he'll be low-owned. I love Ige to win, but there are probably better plays if you are trying to win a GPP and need to score 100+. | |||||
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 8300 | Claudio Ribeiro | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +120 |
| Alhassan comes in as a small dog against the debuting Ribeiro and I personally think this line is backward. Alhassan has only had a ton of power but last fight camp he moved to Team Elevation in Colorado, and I think we see a different fighter here. In all the tape I watched Ribeiro really struggled to get off the cage when his opponents held him against it, and I think Alhassan could use some wrestling to win this fight. If it stays standing either guy could KO, the other and I wouldn't be surprised. The fight is an-240 to go under 1.5 rounds so expect fireworks and an early finish here. Both sides are viable in tournaments. | |||||
| Claudio Ribeiro | 7900 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +100 |
| The other side of the Alhassan fight and equally as good of a play. At only $7900 his path to winning is a KO early and a huge score. From what I've watched on tape he can be defensively reckless at times, but he hits like a ton of bricks. I think he is giving up strength here so he could be outmuscled if they get in the clinch. At only $7900 and being the -115 favorite, I expect him to come with a ton of ownership but if he does win you will likely need him in your lineup to take home any GPPs. | |||||
| Punahele Soriano | 8500 | Roman Kopylov | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +130 |
| This fight should stay standing, and Soriano has shown good durability in his time in the UFC. His power drops off severely after about 5 minutes but hopefully, he doesn't need to go that long. I'll be back Soriano, but if this fight gets to a decision he won't score well since he doesn't throw much volume. | |||||
| Ketlen Vieira | 8200 | Raquel Pennington | Risky | -120 | +450 |
| I'll mostly be avoiding this fight, but I do think there is a small chance Vieira wins by KO here as the better striker. Pennington loves to clinch and slow down the fight and she is good enough to do that against most fighters. I don't think anyone is going to be playing this fight so if you really want to go off the board on a GPP dart throw take a chance here. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7400 | Sijara Eubanks | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +300 |
| Zombie Girl likes to press the pressure in all of her fights, but she has horrible takedown defense and doesn't get up once she is taken down. She isn't passed trying to purposefully eye-poke someone going for a submission like she did to Gillian Robertson, so you know she'll fight for your money. I think Cachoeira takes over in the later part of the second round if she survives long enough to get there. | |||||
| Damon Jackson | 7800 | Dan Ige | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +380 |
| Jackson is going to look to get the fight to the ground and we've seen him be successful in all of his fights once he gets to the ground. I personally think this is too big of a step up in competition for him in this spot, so I won't have much of him, but the public seems to be on him since he is only +105 at $7800. | |||||
| Jimmy Flick | 7200 | Charles Johnson | Risky | +280 | +400 |
| The only way Jason Witt wins the fight is to take them to the ground where he can't get knocked out. Though he likely gets his night ended early, if he can survive to the judges’ scorecards it’s because he controlled the fight on the ground and will put up a nice fantasy score. | |||||
| Nick Aguirre | 7300 | #N/A | Risky | +410 | +600 |
| Aguirre has shown some slick submissions and while he is the rightful dog here, I think the line is too wide. He is +600 to win inside the distance (around 14% chance) and with Argueta being the highest-owned fighter if you roster him and he does come through you have massive leverage on the field. If you play lineups, play him in 1-2 if you are looking to get unique. | |||||
| Mateus Mendonca | 7000 | Javid Basharat | Risky | +260 | +450 |
| Mendonca has some power and will look to come out aggressive. He had a two-year layoff prior to his fight on the Contender Series and since that fight was only a minute long, we didn't learn how he has improved over that time. Going back to his fights in 2020 he was able to be taken down and controlled in some spots but always found a way to get the win. I think this is the best competition he has faced by far so I'm not overly confident in this spot, but he is a live dog. | |||||
| Carlos Hernandez | 7100 | Allan Nascimento | Risky | +275 | +800 |
| Hernandez normally tries to get the fight to the ground, so it'll be interesting to see how he approaches this fight with Nascimento. Hernandez has been in a couple of split decisions in his last few outings, so he knows how to overcome adversity to get a win. If Nascimento overextends and puts himself in a bad position on the ground Hernandez is more than capable of snatching up a submission win. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 7700 | Punahele Soriano | Risky | +135 | +275 |
| Kopylov has looked improved lately, but I can't get out of my head how lost on the ground he was in his fight against Roberson. If Soriano opts to get this to the ground it could be a long night for Kopylov, but if it stays standing it is anyone’s game. | |||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 6900 | Umar Nurmagomedov | Risky | +675 | +1200 |
| Barcelos is a talented fighter in his own right but faces a tough task in Cousin Umar. Barcelos throws a ton of volume, but he is going to have to keep it standing long enough to throw enough strikes in order to win this fight. The line is off here, so I'll have some Barcelos, but Umar is the rightful favorite. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Strickland, Cachoeira, Alhassan, Mendonca, Hernandez
Stats and Picks
Sean Strickland | vs | Nassourdine Imavov |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 25-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
Dan Ige | vs | Damon Jackson |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-4-1 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 15 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Punahele Soriano | vs | Roman Kopylov |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
Ketlen Vieira | vs | Raquel Pennington |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-9-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
Umar Nurmagomedov | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 8 |
7 | Subs | 2 |
-975 | Vegas Odds | +675 |
0 | ||
Javid Basharat | vs | Mateus Mendonca |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-315 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
Claudio Ribeiro | vs | Abdul Razak Alhassan |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Mateusz Rebecki | vs | Nick Fiore |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-740 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
Allan Nascimento | vs | Carlos Hernandez |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 0 |
13 | Subs | 4 |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
Dan Argueta | vs | Nick Aguirre |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
-520 | Vegas Odds | +410 |
Charles Johnson | vs | Jimmy Flick |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 0 |
3 | Subs | 14 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
Priscila Cachoeira | vs | Sijara Eubanks |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
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