MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Holloway vs The Korean Zombie Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs The Korean Zombie live from Singapore kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00AM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 AM on ESPN+. The Korean Zombie makes his final walk to the octagon in a matchup that he requested against Max Holloway. Zombie has been a fan favorite for a long time and with exciting fights against Yair Rodriguez, Jose Aldo, Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier he has shared the cage with some of the best in the world. It’ll be sad to see him ride off into the sunset, but I’m excited to see him take the center of the cage one last time.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs The Korean Zombie
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Max Holloway vs Chan Sung Jung | 9700/6500 | - | Stackability: Low | -750/+600 | -135/+1000 |
| Two of my favorite fighters off all time take the center stage for the main event this week. Holloway has been the most consistent fighter in terms of DraftKings scoring for years now. If he wins the fight, he scores well, if he loses then his opponent scores well. Holloway has the durability and volume advantage in this matchup, and The Korean Zombie already announced that this is his retirement fight. Max wins this unless Zombie can get his wrestling going, I'm confident being all in on this fight and will have Max in almost all of my lineups. Holloway by 3rd Round KO. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rinya Nakamura | 9600 | Fernie Garcia | Somewhat-Safe | -900 | -300 |
| Nakamura has power in his hand and has the power to get the fight to the ground, if need be, as well. Garcia seems like a tough out, so I think Rinya gets it done by submission but either way I think he is most likely to get the quick win bonus. | |||||
| JJ Aldrich | 9400 | Liang Na | Somewhat-Safe | -535 | -150 |
| Liang Na comes out hot in the first round so Aldrich may have to weather the early storm, but Na isn't very durable and doesn't have much of a gas tank either. Na is also moving up to a higher weight class so any physical advantages she had at 115 lbs. are out the window. I think Aldrich finds a late second round finish, likely by KO from ground and pound. | |||||
| Rolando Bedoya | 9200 | Song Kenan | Somewhat-Safe | -340 | +130 |
| Bedoya landed a ton of volume against Khaos Williams, and while Kenan can land with power of his own, he is nowhere near as durable as Williams was. Bedoya is going to land a lot and eventually Kenan will succumb to the pressure. Bedoya wasn't tested on the ground in his last fight and Kenan does wrestle sometimes, so unless Bedoya has zero ability to get off the ground, he should win this fight while landing 100+ strikes in a decision, or by a late KO. | |||||
| Giga Chikadze | 9000 | Alex Caceres | Moderate | -238 | +250 |
| Giga is coming off of a long layoff after losing his fight to Calvin Kattar, but he takes a huge step back here. Giga has the cleaner, more powerful striking, and while sometimes he falls into lulls and doesn't throw much, he has also shown that he only needs one to land clean to KO his opponent. He isn't my favorite fighter in this range only because if he doesn't get the early KO, it is hard for him to score well. | |||||
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 9100 | Lukasz Brzeski | Moderate | -218 | +165 |
| Cortes throws a ton of volume but hasn't shown any ability to finish a fight. I expect this to go to decision so for that reason I won't have much of this fight, but on the chance that he finds a finish he probably will have a lot of volume on top of a knockdown or two which should get him to a huge score. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Garrett Armfield | 8700 | Toshiomi Kazama | Moderate | -162 | +150 |
| I'm targeting this fight on both sides because someone should score well in this matchup. I expect Kazama to be one of the higher owned underdogs on this card so this is a leverage play against that as well as someone who possesses a high ceiling. Armfield has a bunch of early KO wins, Kazama has a bunch of early submission wins, so I expect both of these guys to take chances and I'm banking on Armfield to find the KO. | |||||
| Yusaku Kinoshita | 8400 | Billy Goff | Moderate | -142 | +120 |
| The midrange is going to be where this slate is won this week with multiple fighters being priced under +150 to win the fight inside the distance and Kinoshita is one of those to target. Goff has some good cardio, but I think the power and speed advantages are in favor of Kinoshita. Kinoshita’s red flag here is that he has absolutely ZERO ground game so if Goff gets this fight to the ground once I don't even know if Kinoshita can get back up. Goff has never won a fight by submission so I'm banking on this to be a standing affair for as long as it lasts with Kinoshita finishing the fight in the first round. | |||||
| Ryan Spann | 8300 | Anthony Smith | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | -115 |
| This is a rematch from a few years ago, and Spann got absolutely dusted in the first round so why am I banking on him here? I think Spann is getting better while Smith is slowly on the decline after the wear and tear of 50+ fights. Spann has the strength advantage early, so I'm hoping he can finish the fight in the first five minutes, but he routinely quits if he becomes the "nail" instead of the "hammer". The winner of this fight probably scores 100+ and the loser scores 15 or less so this fight is a risk you need to take in tournaments, but in a double up contest I would stay away. | |||||
| Anthony Smith | 7900 | Ryan Spann | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +165 |
| Smith was lifted up and carried across the octagon in the first minute of the fight by Spann, but you don't get a nickname "Lionheart" by quitting at the first sign of adversity. If Smith survives the early onslaught of submission attempts and power striking, he should be able to turn the tide in the second round and win this fight by finish. I think Spann is the chalk play in this price range, and Smith put up 120 fantasy points in the first matchup, it's tough to play someone who hasn't won a fight in two years but he has the ceiling to break the slate and the potential to knockout 40% of the field in a win. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 8200 | Chidi Njokuani | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | +140 |
| I'm leaning towards Mikey O in this matchup due to his durability, but this fight is going to be a war. Both of these men have a ton of power and aren't afraid to throw it, and while Michal is going to be a liability if this fight hits the ground, I don't expect Chidi to push for wrestling unless he feels like he is in trouble. | |||||
| Billy Goff | 7800 | Yusaku Kinoshita | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +165 |
| Goff has a more well-rounded game, but he is giving up a lot of power to the 23-year-old Kinoshita. He hasn't shown any submission skills but getting this fight to the ground should be a priority for him as I don't think he has the power on the feet to get Kinoshita's respect. Prolong the fight, drag Kinoshita into deep waters, and drown him in the later rounds. | |||||
| Erin Blanchfield | 8500 | Taila Santos | Risky | -148 | +250 |
| I keep going back and forth on this fight and still I'm confused on which side I like. Blanchfield is the next big prospect in the division at only 24 years old. She has already had victories over some of the biggest names in the division, Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann. She has the grappling advantage, but I'm not sure she has the strength to get Santos to the ground here. I think this is probably a back-and-forth match, and of all the fights priced in the mid-range this is the one that I'm least confident in the winner scoring really well. I'm excited to watch this but will probably be avoiding these fighters in my lineups, unless they are the last piece in, and I have the money for one of them. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Parker Porter | 7600 | Junior Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +225 |
| Porter is the better wrestler, but he needs to avoid being KO'd by Tafa. If this fight takes place at range, I expect Tafa to piece up Porter, but if Porter can get even one takedown or just wear Tafa against the cage, I think it will be enough for him to win this fight. | |||||
| Toshiomi Kazama | 7500 | Garrett Armfield | Somewhat-Risky | +136 | +240 |
| Kazama has a ton of first round finishes on his resume, so he has the upside needed to win a tournament. Almost all of Armfield's losses involve him getting taken down so if Kazama gets it to the ground I'm confident that he'll be able to control the fight. | |||||
| Jarno Errens | 7400 | SeungWoo Choi | Risky | +120 | |
| Errens is only +120 at $7400 so he is going to get some ownership. Choi has no problem entering the pocket to trade punches which leads to a lot of volatility in his fights. Errens has never been KO'd so if he can showcase his durability, I think he has what it takes to win this fight, hopefully by submission. | |||||
| Taila Santos | 7700 | Erin Blanchfield | Risky | +124 | +600 |
| Santos is the strongest fighter Blanchfield has faced, and probably the most talented as well. Santos went to split decision with champ Valentina Shevchenko, but this is a different matchup stylistically. I expect Santos to have to fight off multiple takedowns attempts from Blanchfield per round, so while I think she may be able to win this fight, I find it hard for her to score well if she has to spend so much time trying to avoid being taken down. If she wins this fight, I think it is by decision. | |||||
| Alex Caceres | 7200 | Giga Chikadze | Risky | +195 | +450 |
| Caceres is an awkward fighter and has some crafty submission skills, but he'll need to close the distance to get out of Giga's kickboxing range. Caceres is at his best when he can fight at range and mix in grappling exchanges, but he'll need to sell out for the takedowns if he wants any chance of winning this fight. | |||||
| Lukasz Brzeski | 7100 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Risky | +180 | +450 |
| Both of these fighters were finishing machines before coming into the UFC, but now that they have gone a step up in competition, they seem to be volume punchers instead of power punchers. I think Waldo is the more active boxer and should have the advantage, but this fight should be close and if anyone were to wrestle, I think it would be Lukasz. This is likely a greasy decision but at $7100 he is worth the shot as most fighters priced this low are massive dogs. | |||||
| Song Kenan | 7000 | Rolando Bedoya | Risky | +270 | +450 |
| Kenan has power, his odds to win the fight are almost the same as his odds to win the fight by finish so he has the ceiling if he wins the fight. If he wins the fight, he probably scores enough to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Liang Na | 6800 | JJ Aldrich | Risky | +400 | +550 |
| Na is a first round or bust type of fighter and JJ Aldrich isn't beyond getting caught with something. I probably won't be playing her in favor of other dogs. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
The Korean Zombie, Santos, Smith, Porter, Kazama
Picks and Stats
Max Holloway | vs | Chan Sung Jung |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 24-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
-750 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Anthony Smith | vs | Ryan Spann |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 36-18-0 | Record | Record: 21-8-0 |
19 | Knockouts | 6 |
14 | Subs | 12 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Giga Chikadze | vs | Alex Caceres |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 21-13-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Rinya Nakamura | vs | Fernie Garcia |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-900 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Erin Blanchfield | vs | Taila Santos |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 19-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 10 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | +124 |
0 | ||
Junior Tafa | vs | Parker Porter |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 4-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-8-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta | vs | Lukasz Brzeski |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-1 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 12 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Toshiomi Kazama | vs | Garrett Armfield |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+136 | Vegas Odds | -162 |
Chidi Njokuani | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-6-0 (1 NC) |
14 | Knockouts | 13 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-102 | Vegas Odds | -118 |
Song Kenan | vs | Rolando Bedoya |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
+270 | Vegas Odds | -340 |
Billy Goff | vs | Yusaku Kinoshita |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -142 |
Liang Na | vs | JJ Aldrich |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-6-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
+400 | Vegas Odds | -535 |
SeungWoo Choi | vs | Jarno Errens |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-1 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
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