MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night - Grasso vs Araujo: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night Grasso vs Araujo kicks off with the early prelims at 4PMEST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -230/ +195 | +250/+700 |
| This should be a fun main event between two of the top contenders in the woman's 125 lbs. division. Grasso came up primarily as a boxer in her early UFC career but has since vastly improved her wrestling and submission dramatically since that time even snatching up a submission victory in her last outing. Grasso will look to use her wrestling skills mainly to keep the fight standing where she should be able to out volume Araujo throughout the five round fight. Araujo will likely look to grapple early and try to get her wrestling going so she has a path to a high score on DraftKings. My pick to win will be Grasso, but with the fight being -200 to reach the judges’ scorecards I'll be mixing both fighters into my lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joanderson Brito | 9400 | Lucas Alexander | Somewhat-Safe | -365 | -165 |
| Brito takes on short notice replacement Lucas Alexander in what likely is an action-packed fight for as long as it lasts. Brito is coming off of a vicious mauling of Andre Fili so this is major step down in competition for him here. I think Brito's pressure is too much and eventually breaks Lucas down and finds an early KO or submission. | |||||
| Pete Rodriguez | 9500 | Mike Jackson | Somewhat-Safe | -675 | -360 |
| The biggest favorite on the card and likely the highest owned fighter comes in with a ton of question marks and red flags, but I'm ignoring them against Mike Jackson. Rodriguez is all action from the start of his fights winning all four of his pro wins by first round knockout. Mike Jackson has three professional fights, all in the UFC, with his most notable win coming over CM Punk from WWE. Rodriguez has never made it to the four minutes in any of his pro or amateur fights so if he gets extended, I would start to worry, but Jackson doesn't take damage very well so I'm expecting a first round KO from Rodriguez. | |||||
| Victor Henry | 9300 | Raphael Assuncao | Somewhat-Safe | -390 | +130 |
| Henry put on a masterclass in his last outing landing almost 200ss against Barcelos, but this is a much different matchup. Assuncao is a fighter who has no problem staying to the outside and slowing the pace of the fight down even if the crowd starts to boo. Henry likely wins this, but with Assuncao's fight style I'm going to be avoiding playing either side of these in most of my lineups. | |||||
| Askar Askarov | 9200 | Brandon Royval | Moderate | -240 | +180 |
| Askarov has attempted at least 6 takedowns in all of his UFC fights, so you know what to expect when he gets in the cage. He doesn't land his takedowns at a high rate like Kamaru Usman but he will chain takedowns together and hold his opponents against the cage for as long as he can. Royval is normally a quick starter so we could see a high paced first round, but I think eventually the pace settles and Askarov can implement his wrestling along the cage. Askarov doesn't throw much volume while the fight stays standing and has limited ground and pound so his score outside of a finish likely won't be too high unless he can put up 5+ takedowns. He's in play but not a top priority for my lineups. | |||||
| Tatsuro Taira | 9100 | CJ Vergara | Moderate | -250 | +240 |
| Taira is undefeated and will need to get his grappling going early if he wants to stay that way. His submission game is way ahead of Vergara so he should look to land takedowns early. Vergara will need to keep the fight standing, and he has been able to do so in his UFC career so far having stuffed 12 of 15 takedown attempts against him. I'm taking Taira by submission but don't feel nearly as confident as I would like for a $9100 priced fighter. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dusko Todorovic | 8700 | Jordan Wright | Moderate | -200 | -150 |
| This fight is going to be fireworks early so you'll need to get a piece of it in your lineups. Todorovic is coming off of a bad KO loss, but his wrestling looked good to start the fight, so I expect him to go back to that here to get a win here by early stoppage. Wright has never gone more than 6 minutes in of his 15 professional fights, and in every one of his UFC fights the winner has scored 100+ points so at $8700/$7500 you need a piece of this fight in your lineups. | |||||
| Mana Martinez | 8500 | Brandon Davis | Moderate | -150 | +200 |
| Martinez has the power advantage here and there is no quit in him even when dragged into deeper waters. Davis hasn't won a fight since mid 2019 and he hasn't been fighting the highest level of competition in those loses. I expect Mana to get it done here but he needs to find a finish to make the optimal lineup since he rarely goes to his wrestling in any of his fights. | |||||
| Piera Rodriguez | 8600 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +380 |
| Rodriguez should have the wrestling and size advantage over Hughes, so I expect her to find success early and often here. Hughes routinely gives up round1 to her opponents before turning it on as they start to slow down, but I don't expect her to be able to do that here. My prediction here is that Rodriguez scores well in a decision win, and with Dusko being only $100, Rodriguez likely comes in as one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate. | |||||
| Jacob Malkoun | 7900 | Nick Maximov | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +550 |
| Malkoun averages nearly 7 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, but Maximov has never been taken down in the UFC and Maximov likely hast the better submission game. With both fighters looking to get the fight to the ground you'll either see 15 minutes of wrestling and submission attempts, or the wrestling neutralizes each other out and you'll see two guys striking who don't want to strike. I'm banking on Malkoun to get top control and play his position over submission game to neutralize Maximov's submission attempts. | |||||
| Jordan Wright | 7500 | Dusko Todorovic | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +215 |
| The other half of the best firefight on the card. Wright is willing to strike or wrestle but also willing to put himself into bad positions in order to hunt a finish. He is as likely to score 5 points as he is to score 105 pts so only play in GPP contests and avoid in cash games. | |||||
| Alonzo Menifield | 8900 | Misha Cirkunov | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | -110 |
| Menifield has massive power but hasn't been able to use it reliably to find finishes. Cirkunov tried to fight at 185 for his last few outings and they didn't go as planned. If Misha can grind Menifield against the cage in round 1 it is likely going to zap Menifield of his power and I expect a pretty slow-paced fight after that. Menifield is a round1/2 KO or bust play, so I'll be avoiding him in this spot. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Cub Swanson | 7400 | Jonathan Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +425 |
| Swanson is a savvy veteran trying to make a name for himself again in the 135 lb. division after most of his career took place at 145lbs. Swanson's KO loss to Giga Chikadzee seems to have really stuck with the odds makers here as he comes in as a big dog against a middling opponent in Martinez. I think Cub can get it done in this fight, but at nearly 40 years old I don't want to be too heavily invested in him. | |||||
| Misha Cirkunov | 7300 | Alonzo Menifield | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +250 |
| Misha has the wrestling and grappling advantage here and for $7300 that is enough for me to take a shot. This is his return to the light heavyweight division after trying to move down to middleweight but he didn't find any success there as he was always the slower fighter. His durability at 205 was the main reason he moved down in weight, and while Menifield is a powerful striker, I don't put him anywhere near the level of competition that was beating Cirkunov at light heavyweight (Oezdimir, Spann, Texeira). | |||||
| Brandon Royval | 7000 | Askar Askarov | Risky | +200 | +380 |
| He's going to come out fast and push a pace on Askarov and might be able to find success if he can either keep it standing or somehow end up on top in one of the grappling exchanges. He is the cheapest fighter I would feel comfortable having in my lineup. | |||||
| CJ Vergara | 7100 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | +210 | +550 |
| Likely has the striking advantage so worth a shot if you are mass entering lineups, but Taira has shown good durability so I don't want to bank on Vergara finding a KO here if I'm only firing one lineup. | |||||
| Raphael Assuncao | 6900 | Victor Henry | Risky | +320 | +800 |
| Assuncao is a crafty veteran but even if he does find a way to beat Henry in this spot I don't see him scoring high enough to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Lucas Alexander | 6800 | Joanderson Brito | Risky | +300 | +425 |
| Alexander has been subbed quickly in multiple fights but has never been KO'd. If he keeps it standing maybe he has a chance here but I won't be putting my money on it. | |||||
| Mike Jackson | 6700 | Pete Rodriguez | Risky | +500 | +650 |
| Mike Jackson being on the UFC roster after all these years still blows my mind. He only has three professional fights and has won twice in the UFC (once by his opponent landing illegal eye pokes) but I don't think he gets it done here. Every Mike Jackson fight has been bizarre, so for him to finish Rodriguez after Rodriguez gasses is something I wouldn't put past him. I'm avoiding him, but wouldn't be surprised if something weird happened. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Araujo, Swanson, Cirkunov, Malkoun, Royval
Stats and Picks
Alexa Grasso | vs | Viviane Araujo |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Cub Swanson | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 28-12-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Askar Askarov | vs | Brandon Royval |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-1-1 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
7 | Subs | 9 |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Jordan Wright | vs | Dusko Todorovic |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 12-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Misha Cirkunov | vs | Alonzo Menifield |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
0 | ||
Mana Martinez | vs | Brandon Davis |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-9-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Raphael Assuncao | vs | Victor Henry |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 27-9-0 | Record | Record: 22-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
10 | Subs | 8 |
+320 | Vegas Odds | -390 |
Nick Maximov | vs | Jacob Malkoun |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Joanderson Brito | vs | Lucas Alexander |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-3-1 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
-365 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
Piera Rodriguez | vs | Sam Hughes |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Tatsuro Taira | vs | CJ Vergara |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Mike Jackson | vs | Pete Rodriguez |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 1-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+500 | Vegas Odds | -675 |
PrizePicks Props
Menifield - U 35.5 SS
Henry - U 75.5 SS
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