MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot kicks off from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada with the Prelims at 4:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. Top contenders Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot headline an action-packed card from Las Vegas Nevada for a spot in the top five of the lightweight division. The co-main event features Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell against Dan “50K” Ige in a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. The fight takes place in the small cage at the UFC Apex so expect all of these fights to be action-packed from start to finish.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for Noche UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot | 8500/7700 | - | Stackability: Low | -155/130 | 165./450. |
| Fiziev is the more talented striker and has much more finishing ability than Gamrot so if this fight stays at his pace, he should be able to win this fight fairly easily. Gamrot will need to get this fight to the ground, tire out Fiziev and take over late if he wants to have any success in the cage this weekend. Fiziev showed in his matchup against Justin Gaethje that in Round 1 he can be a problem for anyone, so I expect him to look extremely impressive early for our DraftKings lineups that opens up the possibility of an early finish, so he has a clear path to being on the optimal lineup. Gamrot's pace, ability to go 5 rounds, and land multiple takedowns make him one of the clear underdogs on this slate who has a path to victory if he can stick to his game plan. I think Fiziev finds the early finish here, but I'll be splitting this fight up as both have a chance at hitting the optimal lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jacob Malkoun | 9500 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | 110. |
| Malkoun doesn't do much damage, but he lands takedowns at one of the highest rates in the UFC. If this fight reaches the judges’ scorecards, I expect him to have 4-6 takedowns and 10 minutes of control time which would score somewhere in the range of 70pts before a single punch is thrown from him so he can really break this slate if he gets a good runout. His -550 odds are a little wide, but his $9500 price tag is reasonable as in the last few weeks the highest-priced fighters have been as high as $9700. | |||||
| Andre Fialho | 8900 | Tim Means | Somewhat-Safe | -170 | -110 |
| This is a weird week in the top end as most of the fighters are plus money to end the fight inside the distance. Fialho is one of the smaller favorites on the card, but if he wins the fight, it is likely by knockout. Means will be in his face and give him the opportunity to land heavy shots and Means is now 39 years old and never had great durability. He isn't one of the most likely to win in this price range, but if he does win, he is probably going to score well. | |||||
| Marina Rodriguez | 9300 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | 350. |
| This fight happened already, and Rodriguez dominated the early portions of it, and I expect that to happen again. She wasn't able to find the finish over five rounds the first time they met up, but she did look dominant through the first three, so I expect that to happen again. I'm not confident she will break 90 points, but I'm confident she does enough to get the win. | |||||
| Tamires Vidal | 9000 | Montserrat Rendon | Moderate | -238 | 250. |
| Based on what little fight tape we have of these two, I believe Vidal to be more talented on the ground if the fight ends up there and, on the feet, I think they are about even. Rendon only has 7 total amateur and professional fights which is a major red flag at 34 years old so I'm banking on her looking inexperienced in the cage. Vidal has a higher upside than Rodriguez, but I'm not as confident I can trust what little tape she has out there. | |||||
| Mizuki Mizuki | 9200 | Hannah Goldy | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Goldy is always down for a good scrap so she can possibly lead Mizuki to a high score (DraftKings has her listed as Mizuki Mizuki, other sites have her listed as Mizuki Inoue). We haven't seen her in three years, but her losses have aged extremely well in that time with her last three losses being against Amanda Lemos, Virna Jandiroba, and Alexa Grasso all of whom weren't even in the top 10 at the time but now look like the top of the division. She has been training with the Serra Longo team on Long Island so I'm expecting her to have a massive advantage in this fight on the ground and I'm going to take a stab on a bet by her to win by submission. She would be ranked much higher if she wasn't coming off of a three-year layoff. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Argueta | 8600 | Miles Johns | Moderate | -185 | 225. |
| Argueta is relentless with his wrestling, and Johns tends to slow late so while this fight is close to starting, I think Argueta takes over the later it goes. Argueta by late finish is my pick here. | |||||
| Charles Jourdain | 8300 | Ricardo Ramos | Moderate | -148 | 225. |
| A classic striker vs. grappler fight here and while Ramos has skills, I don't think he is as willing to go into a firefight as Jourdain is. Jourdain could be taken down in this fight, but if he can keep is largely standing, he should be able to dominate on the feet. | |||||
| Ricardo Ramos | 7900 | Charles Jourdain | Somewhat-Risky | 124 | 275. |
| Ramos is clearly the better wrestler and submission specialist in this matchup and at a dog price I'll take some shots at him. I don't love how often he's been KO'd early, and he has a reputation for missing weight, so you never know how the weight cut is going to affect him. | |||||
| Bryan Battle | 8700 | AJ Fletcher | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | 165. |
| I really like Battle but at $8700 he is tough to fit into lineups against a wrestler like Fletcher. Battle has been taken down in most of his fights and while he has a nice guillotine choke, and is the better striker in this matchup, I'm nervous that Fletcher can win Round 1 with his wrestling and cause Battle to only score 75-80 even in a win. I like Battle to win with his striking off his back foot and eventually once Fletcher slows down, he should be able to catch him. | |||||
| Jake Collier | 7800 | Mohammed Usman | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | 225. |
| Collier is someone who puts out a lot of volume for a heavyweight and while I'm not confident that he can create space against Usman, I do at least know while they are separated, he will try to land something. Usman has landed a total of 19 significant strikes across nearly 20 minutes of cage time in his first two UFC wins so while they are standing, I believe Collier should be able to double him up on strikes. I don't think he finishes Usman, so his ceiling isn't too high but as an underdog on this ugly slate, I'll have him in some of my lineups. | |||||
| Mohammed Usman | 8400 | Jake Collier | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | 240. |
| Usman won't throw much, and his wrestling isn't great, but he knows how to win fights. In his last fight against a kickboxer in Tafa, he was fine just holding the fight against the cage, and he racked up 12 minutes of control time with only 2 takedowns. If he has to stand in space he is in trouble unless he lands a wild power punch, but eventually, he won't be able to just outmuscle these fighters and I think that happens this weekend. | |||||
| Miles Johns | 7600 | Dan Argueta | Risky | 154 | 450. |
| Johns should be able to hold his own early on in this fight and his striking is quicker than Argueta's so he is live if he can keep the fight standing. I just think at some point Argueta gets this to the ground, but if Johns can win the first round and the early parts of the second, he could get himself a tight decision win. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| AJ Fletcher | 7500 | Bryan Battle | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 250. |
| Fletcher has the wrestling to make this a close fight, and if his cardio is improved at all he could give Battle problems. He's giving up reach and striking ability to Battle so every second that this fight is standing is probably Fletcher on the receiving end of punches, but two or three good takedowns in the first and second round could be enough to win this fight for him. | |||||
| Tim Means | 7300 | Andre Fialho | Somewhat-Risky | 142 | 380. |
| The "Dirty Bird" Tim Means is always down to scrap. I don't personally rate Fialho very high and in terms of technical ability, I think Means has Fialho beat everywhere. I'm just nervous that Mean's durability isn't going to be able to hold up against Fialho's power. If this goes to decision I expect Means to land more, score more takedowns, and probably win the fight. | |||||
| Dan Ige | 7400 | Bryce Mitchell | Risky | 170 | 350. |
| I didn't write up Bryce on the high end and that is less to say about Bryce and more about Ige. Bryce needs this fight on the ground otherwise he is going to get pieced up on the feet by Ige. Bryce's best ability standing is in multiple fights he has fainted a takedown, had his opponent drop his hands and he lands a power shot instead of shooting for the takedown. If Ige can stop the first few takedowns, he should be able to coast in this fight. If Bryce gets him to the ground, it could be a tough night for Ige, we should know fairly early how this fight is going to play out. | |||||
| Montserrat Rendon | 7200 | Tamires Vidal | Risky | 195 | 750. |
| Rendon is pretty much a wild card being 34 years old and only 7 total fights on her record. She looks like she has decent striking, but I don't think it is anything to hang her hat on. I'm ranking her above the others lower than her because Vidal hasn't proven herself, unlike the other opponents in this range. | |||||
| Hannah Goldy | 7000 | Mizuki Mizuki | Risky | 270 | 1,000 |
| Goldy throws a lot of strikers when she is at her best, and Mizuki tore her ACL in 2020 and hasn't fought since. I think Goldy ends up getting dominated in this fight, but with so many question marks against Mizuki she could be worth taking a shot. | |||||
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 6900 | Marina Rodriguez | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Waterson couldn't get her wrestling going against Rodriguz until the 4th round in their first matchup but once she got it to the ground, she controlled the fight. If she gets an early takedown she could win this fight, but I'm not banking on it to happen as she's nearing 40 years old. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 6700 | Jacob Malkoun | Risky | 410 | 650. |
| MMA math normally doesn't work, but when comparing skills against common opponents it could be useful. Malkoun was easily able to outwrestle Nick Maximov, but Brundage struggled in that fight so that's a major red flag here. I'm probably fading Brundage in my lineups as I think Malkoun wins this fight decisively. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Gamrot, Ige, Collier, Means, Ramos
Picks and Stats
Rafael Fiziev | vs | Mateusz Gamrot |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 22-2-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Bryce Mitchell | vs | Dan Ige |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 5 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Marina Rodriguez | vs | Michelle Waterson Gomez |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-3-2 | Record | Record: 18-11-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Bryan Battle | vs | AJ Fletcher |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Ricardo Ramos | vs | Charles Jourdain |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-1 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
124 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
0 | ||
Dan Argueta | vs | Miles Johns |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Tim Means | vs | Andre Fialho |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 32-15-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-7-0 (1 NC) |
19 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 5 |
142 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Jacob Malkoun | vs | Cody Brundage |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | 410 |
Mohammed Usman | vs | Jake Collier |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 114 |
Mizuki Inoue | vs | Hannah Goldy |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 1 |
9 | Subs | 1 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | 270 |
Tamires Vidal | vs | Montserrat Rendon |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 1 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | 195 |
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