MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Emmett vs Topuria Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Topuria kicks off from Jacksonville with the Prelims at 11:30 AM on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card ABC at 3:00PM. Perennial top 10 in the featherweight division Josh Emmett looks to turn away up and coming prospect Ilia Topuria in what should be a barnburner of a fight for as long as it lasts. Emmett has the power to knockout anyone in the division and coming off a loss to talented striker Yair Rodriguez in an interim title fight I’m sure he wants to end this fight with a highlight KO to keep his standing at the top of the division. Topuria comes in as a massive favorite in a major step up in competition so if he can add a name like Josh Emmett to his resume he’ll ascend the rankings quickly and eye a title shot within the next year.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Topuria
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria | 6700/9500 | - | Stackability: Low | +300/-400 | +450/+200 |
| This is a huge step up for Topuria this week facing former interim title challenger Josh Emmett in a five round main event, but I think he should be game for the challenge. Emmett throws with a ton of power, but he is routinely out volumed in most of his fights, and I think Topuria should be able to take advantage of that. Topuria should use his wrestling to neutralize the power of Emmett but even if it stays standing, he should be able to win this fight. Emmett has the power to turn around any fight so if you are playing multiple lineups, you should include him in some especially at his extremely cheap salary. You can stack this fight in cash games since Topuria has a five-round ceiling, and at Emmett's price if it goes to decision, he is going to score enough to be a good value. Despite this fight being favored to end within 2 rounds my official pick is Topuria by decision. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tatsuro Taira | 9400 | Kleydson Rodrigues | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +110 |
| Taira has been a great player in his young UFC career so far mainly due to his ability to get takedowns, lock in the body triangle and find the early finish in most of his fights. Rodrigues has shown a real nice ability to be able to get back to his feet and if this fight stays standing Rodrigues may be the favorite here. Taira is smart and knows exactly how he has to win this fight so I expect him to go for takedowns early and often, and while I don't rate him as high as Topuria, he will be a staple in most of my Emmett lineups. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 8800 | Austen Lane | Somewhat-Safe | -175 | -135 |
| This is strictly a ceiling play at the expensive range. Tafa throws with heat on all of his punches and last time out he was even more aggressive than usual, so I expect him to do the same here. Lane is best remembered for being KO'd by Greg Hardy and while he has been on a run since then it hasn't been against the best competition. I think Tafa gets it done here with a first round KO, but if he doesn’t, he isn't going to score well because he doesn't throw much volume or wrestle. | |||||
| Randy Brown | 9300 | Wellington Turman | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +115 |
| Brown is rounding into a gate keeper for the top 15 of the division, having won the majority of his fights but losing whenever he takes a step up in competition against the likes of Luque or Belal Mohammad. Turman was just rag dolled repeatedly by Andre Petroski, but Brown doesn't have the same type of wrestling as he does so I don't expect him to chain wrestle like that in this spot. This seems to me like a fight where Brown lands 75-80 strikes, maybe a takedown or two and possibly finds a late stoppage. | |||||
| Gabriel Santos | 9200 | David Onama | Moderate | -225 | +135 |
| Santos likes to wrestle and Onama has been exploited in that area before, but this line seems off to me. Santos is 10-1 and looked great in his debut against Lerone Murphy where he used his wrestling and nearly won a fight that he took on short notice against a top15 fighter and he has that upside to score massively here but I think the odds are a little off due to Onama losing his last fight. Onama last time out lost a decision to Nate Landwehr, but he nearly finished the fight in the first-round landing 50 strikes, a knockdown, and a takedown. If that fight gets stopped by the ref in the first round this fight would be lined around -110/-110 and I'm expecting the fight to be closer than the line suggests. | |||||
| Brendan Allen | 9100 | Bruno Silva | Moderate | -188 | +105 |
| I'm hoping Allen submitting Muniz last time out knocked some sense into him and he realizes that his ground game is better than he thinks. Silva is a monstrous power puncher who went 15 minutes trading strikes with Alex Pereira and if Allen chooses to go that route this fight becomes a coin flip. Allen has wrestling in his back pocket and while he isn't one of the best in the division at it, he should use it here to his advantage to neutralize Silva's power. Allen doesn't throw much volume, so he needs the finish to end up on the optimal lineup, so while I'm not going to be completely fading him, he isn't one of my favorite plays especially at $9100. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chepe Mariscal | 8000 | Trevor Peek | Moderate | -105 | +160 |
| Both of the fighters in this fight make the top of my list, not because of likelihood to win but because of how often I think they hit the optimal lineup. Peek is a mess defensively but hits like a truck, so Chepe needs to look counter and use some wrestling if he wants to win in this match up. Peek has under 15 minutes of time in the UFC and has already been taken down 8 times, so it is there to be exploited, but his ability to get back up has been pretty good. Chepe trains at Elevation Fight Team so while this fight is on short notice his cardio should be on point and this isn't necessarily a step up in competition for him either. Chepe's record of 13-6 is misleading because he has fought a ton of ex-ufc fighters including: Gregor Gillespie, Pat Sabatini (win), Bryce Mitchell, Youssef Zalal (win), Joanderson Brito and Steve Garcia. | |||||
| Trevor Peek | 8200 | Chepe Mariscal | Moderate | -115 | +130 |
| Peek moves one direction once the fight starts and it is forward. He throws some of the most unorthodox strikes you'll see from someone who is in the UFC. Even if Peek doesn't find the KO win, he is likely going to end up on the optimal lineup in a win because he throws a ton of volume landing over 8 significant strikes a minute despite being taken down 4 times in each of his fights. This fight is going to be madness for as long as it lasts so make sure you get a piece of it in your lineups. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 8300 | Gillian Robertson | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | +425 |
| I'm probably on an island with this play here but I love Ricci this week. Ricci has shown in all of her UFC fights that she can control where the fight is except when she fought Manon Fiorot who looks to be on her way to challenging for a title soon. Robertson has been submission or bust in most of her fights so if Ricci controls where the fight takes place, and when the fight hits the ground, I think she can win this fairly easily. If she doesn't mix in the wrestling for the fear of submissions, it'll cap her ceiling so that is my only concern. | |||||
| Neil Magny | 8500 | Phil Rowe | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +375 |
| Magny has been a gatekeeper for the top of the division for a while now and this looks like one of the matchups where he closes the gate on Rowe's face. Rowe is lanky and has good striking, but Magny is going to get him against the cage and wear on him before eventually getting takedowns. Magny never really scores too well on DraftKings but with the takedown upside that he has in this matchup he could hit the optimal lineup if he can find a first or second round submission. | |||||
| Jack Jenkins | 7600 | Jamall Emmers | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +500 |
| I absolutely hate trying to predict how Jamall Emmers is going to fight because he hasn't shown any intelligence inside the cage. Jenkins has a good volume both striking and wrestling, but Emmers should be well ahead of him in wrestling both offensively and defensively, so he'll need to look to mainly strike. If Emmers opts to just come out and wrestle right from the beginning I think Jenkins gets mauled, but if this fight stays standing Jenkins should get the better of the exchanges. | |||||
| Loik Radzhabov | 7800 | Mateusz Rebecki | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +400 |
| I've gone back and forth on this fight all week and ended up on Loik. He is going to look to wrestle and wrestle often as he attempted 21 takedowns in his last fight, so he knows how to use his best skill set. Rebecki looked good last time out against Fiore mixing in striking and wrestling but after watching Fiore stand there like a punching bag and get destroyed by Chase Hooper, I'm not rating that as highly as I initially was. This seems like one of those fights where at the end of the first round one of these guys looks like he has the other guy’s number and becomes -300 on the live betting line so for that reason I'm taking the slight underdog. | |||||
| Jamall Emmers | 8600 | Jack Jenkins | Risky | -200 | +220 |
| His path to winning this fight is simple, he needs to wrestle. Emmers striking is good enough to contend on the feet in this matchup so I expect it to be close while it's standing but if he tries to wrestle, he should be able to win this fairly easily. He has shown he can put up volume in the past, landing 5 takedowns and 100+ strikes in one fight and he has shown he can go to toe with high end fighters in the division posting a 29-28 against Giga Chikadze. I don't know what game plan he is going to come out with but if he fights smart, he should cruise here. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Sedriques Dumas | 7500 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +190 |
| This is one of the lower-level fights on the card and while Dumas looked terrible in his debut, I actually liked what I saw from him when I watched his tape from the regional scene. He is well rounded and has power so while I'm not putting any bets on him, I think if he wins here, it probably is by finish so at $7500, he needs to be included in some lineups. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 7100 | Brendan Allen | Somewhat-Risky | +163 | +260 |
| Silva has a ton of power, and sometimes Allen just wants to stand and trade punches which could be a disaster for him. Silva needs to be aggressive and let his hands go, but like Dumas, if he wins, he probably scores really well. | |||||
| David Onama | 7000 | Gabriel Santos | Risky | +188 | +325 |
| Onama has talent and while I think he is just as likely or more likely as Silva and Dumas to win this fight I don't think he has as high of a ceiling. Onama should have the better striking here, so it really comes down to keeping himself off of his back and not getting gassed out. | |||||
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 6800 | Tatsuro Taira | Risky | +200 | +375 |
| Taira is still young, and he hasn't faced much adversity in his UFC fights so far, but Rodrigues seems like just the person to give him that test. Rodrigues is likely the better striker from what we've seen out of Taira so if the fight stays on the feet this fight will be close. | |||||
| Maycee Barber | 7300 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | +170 | +375 |
| Barber might have the strength advantage in this matchup which could be the key in the wrestling exchanges, but I normally like to avoid her fights since they don't lead to much volume. Barber has failed to land over 70 strikes in any of her 9 UFC fights (6 decisions) so she doesn't land enough volume to score well, but she does mix in one or two takedowns per fight so she should score a minimum of 30 pts here. I probably fade her in this matchup, but for cash games if you don't want to risk the main event ending early, she makes for an interesting low-priced play with a high floor. | |||||
| Joshua Van | 7200 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Risky | +170 | +320 |
| Van has never been out of the second round so he has upside in this matchup, but I think skill for skill he is going to be behind here, and his opponent has only been in the octagon with some of the best in the division and made it through all three rounds so he is tough to knockout. I'm probably skipping on playing Van and will have some Zhalgas lineups, but this fight seems like it could play out as a greasy decision. | |||||
| Wellington Turman | 6900 | Randy Brown | Risky | +200 | +400 |
| I'm not a fan of Turman and don't think this fight ends up being close. Brown is superior in every aspect except for straight submissions so I'll be fading Turman. | |||||
| Austen Lane | 7400 | Justin Tafa | Risky | +150 | +200 |
| Lane likes to keep his hands low in exchanges, so I think Tafa probably catches him at some point, but he does have power of his own and is a high-level athlete. Lane was a draft pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars, and this UFC card is in Jacksonville so he should get some buzz from the home crowd. If the fight gets past the first round, I've seen Lane be able to keep up the volume for a full fight, so I'd favor him the longer the fight goes. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Emmett, Mariscal, Jenkins, Radzhabov, Silva
Stats and Picks
Josh Emmett | vs | Ilia Topuria |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
Amanda Ribas | vs | Maycee Barber |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Austen Lane | vs | Justin Tafa |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
David Onama | vs | Gabriel Santos |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
+188 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Brendan Allen | vs | Bruno Silva |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 23-8-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 20 |
12 | Subs | 0 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +163 |
0 | ||
Neil Magny | vs | Phil Rowe |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 27-11-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Randy Brown | vs | Wellington Turman |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Mateusz Rebecki | vs | Loik Radzhabov |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
Tabatha Ricci | vs | Gillian Robertson |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-7-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 9 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Zhalgas Zhumagulov | vs | Joshua Van |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-8-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
Trevor Peek | vs | Chepe Mariscal |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 8-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Jamall Emmers | vs | Jack Jenkins |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy & join our FREE Discord!