MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura kicks off from The O2 Arena in London England with the Prelims at 12:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card ESPN+ at 3:00PM and. This card features the return of Tom Aspinall from his leg injury in a matchup against perennial top 15 Heavyweight Marcin Tybura. The co-main event brings us fan favorite Molly “Meatball” McCann against submission specialist Julia Stolierenko.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs Tybura
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura | 9700/6500 | - | Stackability: Low | -450/ -200 | -360/+425 |
| The main event this week features UK fighter Tom Aspinall making his long-awaited return off of a leg injury against perennial top 15 challenger Marcin Tybura. Aspinall was on the short track to the UFC title before a first minute leg injury derailed him from those title aspirations. Aspinall is only 30 years old so I'm hoping that helped with his healing and he comes in looking career best. Outside of durability I'm favoring Aspinall everywhere but if the fight gets past round 2, I'm nervous to see him hold up. I'm picking Aspinall for the early favorite in front of his home crowd. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Makhmud Muradov | 9500 | Bryan Barberena | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | +135 |
| Barberena is making the move up from 170lbs and Muradov packs a ton of power in his punches so I'm banking on Makhmud to find the early finish. Muradov sometimes slows the pace down in fights so in a decision win I don't expect him to score too well here, but he might have the wrestling advantage from the little he has shown on tape so if that happens, he could very well smash the slate. He's the safe play in this range, but I'm going to be leaning heavier on Aspinall at this price range. | |||||
| Molly McCann | 9400 | Julija Stoliarenko | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +130 |
| McCann is going to get the crowd behind her, and she pushes a higher pace than Muradov so if they both go to decision, she makes the better play. Molly likely won't look to wrestle early on as Stoliarenko is the more likely fighter to get the submission, but once she tires her down a bit I wouldn't be surprised if she takes her down and tries to end the fight with ground and pound. | |||||
| Andre Muniz | 9300 | Paul Craig | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +100 |
| Muniz is a submission specialist, and Paul Craig coming down from 205lbs to 185lbs also likes to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary so if Muniz wants this fight down on the ground Craig likely accepts it. Muniz also has the advantage standing so anywhere this fight goes I expect him to have success. I'm picking Muniz by submission, but with both of them being pretty high level on the ground I could see them getting in some stalemate positions where no one is really scoring points and if the fight gets extended, neither of them really land a ton of volume. | |||||
| Nathaniel Wood | 9200 | Andre Fili | Moderate | -205 | +300 |
| Wood is a tough play in this range because his inside distance is significantly worse than others in this range, but he throws significantly more volume. Fili has historically had good takedown defense except in a few matches and I think Wood is good enough to make it work. If this goes to decision, I wouldn't be surprised for Wood to land 100+ strikes with 3-4 takedowns mixed in. | |||||
| Joel Alvarez | 9000 | Marc Diakiese | Moderate | -195 | -115 |
| Alvarez is huge for this weight class, and as of late Diakiese has really shown displeasure for getting hit. Alvarez is going to try to stay to the outside and piece up Diakiese, but even if Diakiese lands takedowns and is successful Alvarez has a really strong guillotine so he could win this by submission. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jamal Pogues | 8900 | Mick Parkin | Moderate | -165 | +210 |
| This fight should be sloppy, but Pogues has shown he can keep up a pace for 15 minutes which is rare in this weight class. If Pogues has success with the wrestling early Parkin will gas out and a late second round finish could score huge with the amount of takedowns Pogues likely lands. | |||||
| Bruna Brasil | 8600 | Shauna Bannon | Moderate | -155 | +260 |
| Bannon only went pro in early 2022 and this will be her 6 professional fight already, but she has been fighting terrible competition. Brasil is 3-1 in the UFC with her one loss being to Denise Gomes who at the time wasn't well known but she has a bunch of power and just finished a fight in 20 seconds last weekend. Bruna is the cleaner striker, and she even has some submission wins by guillotine on her resume that can't be overlooked. I could be wrong here, but I think Brasil comes in and looks like a -300 favorite in this spot. | |||||
| Danny Roberts | 8000 | Jonny Parsons | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +250 |
| I normally hate targeting Danny Roberts, but I think this is a week that he faces a good matchup stylistically. Parsons is coming in to kill or be killed with the majority of his fights ending by KO in the first or second round so I don't expect that to change here when he's coming off of a long layoff and making his UFC debut. Technically Roberts is far superior, but we need his chin to hold up against a few good shots for him to turn up the heat. I'm banking that he gets it done, but if I'm wrong this pick, he probably ends up KO'd. | |||||
| Yanal Ashmouz | 7800 | Chris Duncan | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +210 |
| Both of these fighters are likely going to look for takedowns, and I'm siding with the dog here. Duncan's run up to this fight wasn't that impressive, while Ashmouz is coming off of a quick one-minute win in his UFC debut. Getting the underdog at +210 to win inside the distance is going to always be a popular play, but I think on this slate we need a bunch of dogs, and this is a good place to start. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 7700 | Daniel Marcos | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +275 |
| Grant is a solid top 15 fighter in this division and while I respect Marcos as a prospect, I think this is too much too soon. Grant has shown he can go toe to toe with the top end fighters like Chito Vera and Adrian Yanez, so this is a step back in competition for him. Add in the fact he's fighting in front of the home crowd, and I think Marcos is really going to need to outperform him to get the win here. | |||||
| Chris Duncan | 8400 | Yanal Ashmouz | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +145 |
| Duncan may be the better fight in this matchup but it's really going to come down to who can get the fight where they want it. Duncan is the more likely of the two to find the finish so if you have $8400 left in your lineup, he isn't a bad play, but he'll really need to dominate the wrestling here to find the finish and I'm not sure if he can do that. | |||||
| Jonny Parsons | 8200 | Danny Roberts | Risky | +100 | +150 |
| Roberts is known to get hurt, and while I don't like targeting fighters who aren't more technical than their opponent this is an exception. Parsons has the power to end this fight early and for only $8200 I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 100+ in a win. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marc Diakiese | 7200 | Joel Alvarez | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +425 |
| Diakiese needs to wrestle to win this fight and needs to avoid getting hurt so even though Alvarez has a great guillotine Diakiese knows what he has to do to win. If he loses, it's probably ugly, but if he wins it probably comes with 5+ takedowns and 7+ minutes of control time. | |||||
| Jai Herbert | 7500 | Fares Ziam | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +400 |
| Herbert is the closest that Ilia Topuria has come to a loss in his career so we know he has talent, but it really comes down to if he can keep the distance that he likes and utilize his jab. It's hard for me to see Herbert KOing Ziam, but I think he can win a decision as another hometown fighter on this card. | |||||
| Mick Parkin | 7300 | Jamal Pogues | Risky | +135 | #N/A |
| Parkin didn't look like he had great cardio in the tape I saw so if he ends up on the bottom in an early exchange, he probably gasses out, but he may be the better fighter when the two of them are fresh. Parkin is another fighter who is tough to judge due to only having a few professional fights, and two fights ago he beat a fighter with a 6-10 record so there isn't much to take away from it. He's big, powerful, and has a chance to break the slate but don't he shock if it isn't pretty. | |||||
| Paul Craig | 6900 | Andre Muniz | Risky | +180 | +275 |
| Craig has some of the best wins in the lightweight division and this is his move down to middleweight so I'm excited to see what he brings to the table. He's normally someone who will pull guard to try to find the submission, but I don't know if he tries that against someone with the credentials of Muniz. If he does the same old pulling guard that he used to submit Jamahal Hill and Krylov he probably ends up getting overwhelmed, but if he can find a way to end up on top, he could pull it off. | |||||
| Bryan Barberena | 6700 | Makhmud Muradov | Risky | +255 | +500 |
| Barberena was an all-action fighter, but I'm nervous with him moving up in weight against someone with as much power as Muradov. If he does win, it'll be with overwhelming volume so he makes for a great punt play as long as he can last. | |||||
| Josh Culibao | 7400 | Lerone Murphy | Risky | +120 | +300 |
| Murphy is more technical and probably lands a little bit more volume, but Culibao has the power to knockdown Murphy if he lands clean. It'll be tough for him to get the win here against Murphy, but if he can land a few power shots he can hopefully persuade the judges to give him the win. | |||||
| Pannie Kianzad | 7100 | Ketlen Vieira | Risky | +130 | +700 |
| This fight is -300 to go to decision so I don't really want any part of it, but at only +130 and $7100 Kianzad probably ends up on the optimal lineup if she can get the win. Vieira has had multiple 5 round decisions and she's shown that she only lands around 20 strikes per round which is a number that Kianzad could easily eclipse in this matchup. | |||||
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6800 | Molly McCann | Risky | +180 | +275 |
| She needs a submission, or she is going to lose this fight. She's coming down from a new weight class so it's possible she muscles Molly to the ground and can find the submission, but it's way more likely that the UFC is setting up Molly in the UK to have a highlight win as the co-main event. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Tybura, Grant, Diakiese, Ashmouz, Parkin
Picks and Stats
Tom Aspinall | vs | Marcin Tybura |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 24-7-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-450 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Molly McCann | vs | Julija Stoliarenko |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-2 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Nathaniel Wood | vs | Andre Fili |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 19-5-0 | Record | Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Paul Craig | vs | Andre Muniz |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 16-6-1 | Record | Record: 23-5-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
13 | Subs | 15 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
Jai Herbert | vs | Fares Ziam |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 12-4-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
0 | ||
Lerone Murphy | vs | Josh Culibao |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 12-0-1 | Record | Record: 11-1-1 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Davey Grant | vs | Daniel Marcos |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 14-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 0 |
9 | Subs | 9 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Danny Roberts | vs | Jonny Parsons |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
Marc Diakiese | vs | Joel Alvarez |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 16 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
Mick Parkin | vs | Jamal Pogues |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
Makhmud Muradov | vs | Bryan Barberena |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 25-8-0 | Record | Record: 18-10-0 |
17 | Knockouts | 11 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
Ketlen Vieira | vs | Pannie Kianzad |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Chris Duncan | vs | Yanal Ashmouz |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Shauna Bannon | vs | Bruna Brasil |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-1 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
Jafel Filho | vs | Daniel Barez |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| 14-3-0 | Record | 16-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 6 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |