UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker 2 takes place this weekend live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 7:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+ and finally at 10:00 PM the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV.  The Main Event features Johnny Walker looking to get his revenge on Magomed Ankalaev for an illegal knee that caused their first fight to end in a no contest.   The co-main event features another rematch, but this time for possible title shot implications as Manel Kape looks to avenge a loss against Mathius Nicolau.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker 2

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker

9400/6800

-

Stackability: Low

-550/ +400

-250/550.

We start the year off with a rematch from late last year after the first bout ended in an illegal knee from Ankalaev. Ankalaev has the wrestling advantage and early on in the first fight it looked like he could get take downs almost at will. Walker has said in interviews he will "fight like a robot" so I'm not sure if that means he's going to be more careful this time around. If Walker tries to fight at distance with Ankalaev he is going to get pieced up. Walker needs to embrace his wildness that made him a fan favorite if he wants to have a chance here. I'm going to have Ankalaev in some of my lineups but if he isn't wrestling this fight could be a low volume fight. I think Ankalaev finds the KO in Round 3.
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jean Silva

9600

Westin Wilson

Somewhat-Safe

-950 

-750 

Wilson is big for the division at 6'1 and 145lbs but almost everywhere else in this matchup favors Silva. Silva has big power so when he lands, I expect Wilson to eventually get KO'd. We haven't seen someone with an ITD line this high in a very long time so he's going to be highly owned, but it will be for good reason.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

9500

Andrei Arlovski

Somewhat-Safe

-700 

-190 

Cortes throws a lot of volume, and Arlovski has no chance of being able to keep up with his pace. Unless Arlovski can control this against the fence he probably ends up getting KO'd at some point. Even in a decision win we've seen Waldo hit nearly 150 significant strikes landed so he isn't one of these heavyweights where if they don't win in the first round, they are dead from hitting the optimal lineup. Arlovski is good at slowing down the fight and making his opponents stand and stare for a little bit, and for that reason I'm ranking Silva above Waldo.
Tom Nolan

9200

Nikolas Motta

Somewhat-Safe

-345 

-280 

Nolan likes to march forward which is what we love to see from these high-priced fighters. Motta has some slick counters, but he has seemed like a shot fighter in his last two fights so this could be the end of the road for him here. If Nolan fights anything close to a smart game plan, he should be able to out strike Motta and eventually KO him. My only concern is Nolan is extremely young and doesn't have much experience so seeing him run into a counter punch wouldn't surprise me. I think Nolan KO's him early, but even if he doesn’t, he should be able to win an easy decision here.
Marcus McGhee

9100

Gaston Bolanos

Moderate

-225 

-110 

McGhee has a clear advantage here if he wrestles, but that isn't really his bread and butter. Bolanos is a good striker so on the feet this will be close, but I still think McGhee could win if it stays standing. He isn't as likely as some of these other big favorites to get an early finish, but he should get it done. He is in a tier below the other plays in this price range, but he should be one of the lower owned fighters priced up above $9000 so if you want to get different in a GPP he makes for a good play.
Manel Kape

9000

Matheus Nicolau

Moderate

-285 

140. 

This is a rematch from one of Kape's early fights in the UFC, but I think this fight plays out completely differently. Kape was very timid in his early UFC fights, but he has changed recently. He has massive power, and Nicolau has been KO'd recently so this +140 ITD line seems like a good bet. I think Kape gets the KO, but his issue is that if he doesn't get it early, he probably won't hit the optimal lineup because he still picks his shots carefully and landing 100+ ss in a decision would surprise me. Nicolau also has the wrestling advantage which could slow the pace of the fight even more.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Joshua Van

8800

Felipe Bunes

Moderate

-258 

140. 

I am a huge Joshua Van fan, and this is my main event this week. Van is coming in here on relatively short notice, but his cardio is off the charts and having him land 50+ strikes in a round isn't too much for him. Bunes is going to look to get the fight to the ground, and while Van has struggled with wrestlers in the past, I think he is learning and getting better. If it stays standing Van should be able to put him away or just wear him down. At only $8800 I think Van is one of the few favorites on this card that can make the optimal lineup in a decision win.
Farid Basharat

8900

Taylor Lapilus

Moderate

-278 

330. 

Basharat is a big favorite and I think this line is way off. Basharat is a good fighter, but Lapilus isn't a walkover. Lapilus has never been KO'd or submitted in his career, so he'll need to show him something he hasn't seen before and as a 22-fight veteran, Lapilus has seen a lot. Basharat can mix in the wrestling, so he should have more tools than Lapilus here and I think he does win, but with Van being $100 cheaper, I think I'll want to be underweight on Basharat and overweight on Van.
Ricky Simon

8600

Mario Bautista

Somewhat-Risky

-192 

240. 

Simon is the better wrestler, but Bautista has a lot of slick striking so Simon will have to be careful. Simon at his best should be able to get takedowns here and land decent volume. It's probably hard for Simon to hit the optimal lineup unless he lands a submission win, so I'll have about 20% of him in lineups.
Phil Hawes

7900

Brunno Ferreira

Somewhat-Risky

110 

140. 

THIS PLAY IS NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART! Hawes is the better technical striker, the better offensive wrestler, better defensive wrestler, has better cardio...and is the underdog for a good reason. Ferreira has a ton of power, and Hawes’ one weakness is his ability to take a punch so he could get KO'd quickly. I'm going to have this fight in nearly all my lineups as it is close to -800 to not go the distance so I'm not saying to fade Ferreira, but I do want to get as much Hawes into my lineups as I can.
Matthew Semelsberger

8400

Preston Parsons

Somewhat-Risky

-125 

140. 

This is a polarizing matchup. Semelsberger gets a knockdown in most of his fights and Parsons is very hittable, but he can also be taken down and Parsons will look to wrestle. Semelsberger needs to keep it standing but if he does, he could put up a massive score.
Brunno Ferreira

8300

Phil Hawes

Somewhat-Risky

-125 

-120 

He's either scoring 100+ or he is going to score under 20, he's the same play as Hawes for a few hundred more dollars. He has power off the charts, but he doesn't have the skills to keep up with Hawes if he can't land the KO punch. 
Gabriel Benitez

8000

Jim Miller

Risky

124 

180. 

Neither of these guys put up much volume, neither look to wrestle much, but as the 8200/8000 fight the winner won't need to do too much to pay off his price. Miller is a submission threat, who doesn't have great wrestling. Benitez is coming off of an 18-month layoff and is 36 years old, facing a 40-year-old veteran who has seen it all. Miller is tough to finish to I think this fight ends up getting to the judges’ scorecard. I'm leaning Benitez but I wouldn't be surprised either way this fight turns out.
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mario Bautista

7600

Ricky Simon

Somewhat-Risky

160 

380. 





Sample Lineup 

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Live Dogs

Bautista, Hawes, Parsons, Bolanos, Lapilus

Picks and Stats

   

Magomed Ankalaev

vs

Johnny Walker

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 18-1-1 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC)

9

Knockouts

16

0

Subs

3

-550

Vegas Odds

+400

   

Matheus Nicolau

vs

Manel Kape

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 19-4-1

Record

Record: 19-6-0

5

Knockouts

11

5

Subs

5

230

Vegas Odds

-245

   

Jim Miller

vs

Gabriel Benitez

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 36-17-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 23-11-0

7

Knockouts

9

19

Subs

10

-148

Vegas Odds

124

   

Ricky Simon

vs

Mario Bautista

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 20-4-0

Record

Record: 13-2-0

6

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

6

-192

Vegas Odds

160

   

Phil Hawes

vs

Brunno Ferreira

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 12-5-0

Record

Record: 10-1-0

8

Knockouts

7

2

Subs

3

110

Vegas Odds

-125

 

0

 

Andrei Arlovski

vs

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

$6,700

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 34-22-0 (2 NC)

Record

Record: 10-1-0

17

Knockouts

5

3

Subs

1

500

Vegas Odds

-700

   

Matthew Semelsberger

vs

Preston Parsons

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 11-6-0

Record

Record: 10-4-0

6

Knockouts

0

1

Subs

9

-125

Vegas Odds

105

   

Marcus McGhee

vs

Gaston Bolanos

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 8-1-0

Record

Record: 7-3-0

7

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

0

-225

Vegas Odds

185

   

Farid Basharat

vs

Taylor Lapilus

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 11-0-0

Record

Record: 19-3-0

1

Knockouts

4

6

Subs

6

-278

Vegas Odds

225

   

Westin Wilson

vs

Jean Silva

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

Record: 16-8-0

Record

Record: 11-2-0

5

Knockouts

8

11

Subs

2

625

Vegas Odds

-950

   

Nikolas Motta

vs

Tom Nolan

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 6-0-0

9

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

0

275

Vegas Odds

-345

   

Joshua Van

vs

Felipe Bunes

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 9-1-0

Record

Record: 13-6-0

5

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

8

-258

Vegas Odds

210