MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Ankalaev vs Walker 2 Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker 2 takes place this weekend live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 7:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+ and finally at 10:00 PM the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features Johnny Walker looking to get his revenge on Magomed Ankalaev for an illegal knee that caused their first fight to end in a no contest. The co-main event features another rematch, but this time for possible title shot implications as Manel Kape looks to avenge a loss against Mathius Nicolau.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker 2
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Low | -550/ +400 | -250/550. |
| We start the year off with a rematch from late last year after the first bout ended in an illegal knee from Ankalaev. Ankalaev has the wrestling advantage and early on in the first fight it looked like he could get take downs almost at will. Walker has said in interviews he will "fight like a robot" so I'm not sure if that means he's going to be more careful this time around. If Walker tries to fight at distance with Ankalaev he is going to get pieced up. Walker needs to embrace his wildness that made him a fan favorite if he wants to have a chance here. I'm going to have Ankalaev in some of my lineups but if he isn't wrestling this fight could be a low volume fight. I think Ankalaev finds the KO in Round 3. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jean Silva | 9600 | Westin Wilson | Somewhat-Safe | -950 | -750 |
| Wilson is big for the division at 6'1 and 145lbs but almost everywhere else in this matchup favors Silva. Silva has big power so when he lands, I expect Wilson to eventually get KO'd. We haven't seen someone with an ITD line this high in a very long time so he's going to be highly owned, but it will be for good reason. | |||||
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 9500 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Safe | -700 | -190 |
| Cortes throws a lot of volume, and Arlovski has no chance of being able to keep up with his pace. Unless Arlovski can control this against the fence he probably ends up getting KO'd at some point. Even in a decision win we've seen Waldo hit nearly 150 significant strikes landed so he isn't one of these heavyweights where if they don't win in the first round, they are dead from hitting the optimal lineup. Arlovski is good at slowing down the fight and making his opponents stand and stare for a little bit, and for that reason I'm ranking Silva above Waldo. | |||||
| Tom Nolan | 9200 | Nikolas Motta | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | -280 |
| Nolan likes to march forward which is what we love to see from these high-priced fighters. Motta has some slick counters, but he has seemed like a shot fighter in his last two fights so this could be the end of the road for him here. If Nolan fights anything close to a smart game plan, he should be able to out strike Motta and eventually KO him. My only concern is Nolan is extremely young and doesn't have much experience so seeing him run into a counter punch wouldn't surprise me. I think Nolan KO's him early, but even if he doesn’t, he should be able to win an easy decision here. | |||||
| Marcus McGhee | 9100 | Gaston Bolanos | Moderate | -225 | -110 |
| McGhee has a clear advantage here if he wrestles, but that isn't really his bread and butter. Bolanos is a good striker so on the feet this will be close, but I still think McGhee could win if it stays standing. He isn't as likely as some of these other big favorites to get an early finish, but he should get it done. He is in a tier below the other plays in this price range, but he should be one of the lower owned fighters priced up above $9000 so if you want to get different in a GPP he makes for a good play. | |||||
| Manel Kape | 9000 | Matheus Nicolau | Moderate | -285 | 140. |
| This is a rematch from one of Kape's early fights in the UFC, but I think this fight plays out completely differently. Kape was very timid in his early UFC fights, but he has changed recently. He has massive power, and Nicolau has been KO'd recently so this +140 ITD line seems like a good bet. I think Kape gets the KO, but his issue is that if he doesn't get it early, he probably won't hit the optimal lineup because he still picks his shots carefully and landing 100+ ss in a decision would surprise me. Nicolau also has the wrestling advantage which could slow the pace of the fight even more. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joshua Van | 8800 | Felipe Bunes | Moderate | -258 | 140. |
| I am a huge Joshua Van fan, and this is my main event this week. Van is coming in here on relatively short notice, but his cardio is off the charts and having him land 50+ strikes in a round isn't too much for him. Bunes is going to look to get the fight to the ground, and while Van has struggled with wrestlers in the past, I think he is learning and getting better. If it stays standing Van should be able to put him away or just wear him down. At only $8800 I think Van is one of the few favorites on this card that can make the optimal lineup in a decision win. | |||||
| Farid Basharat | 8900 | Taylor Lapilus | Moderate | -278 | 330. |
| Basharat is a big favorite and I think this line is way off. Basharat is a good fighter, but Lapilus isn't a walkover. Lapilus has never been KO'd or submitted in his career, so he'll need to show him something he hasn't seen before and as a 22-fight veteran, Lapilus has seen a lot. Basharat can mix in the wrestling, so he should have more tools than Lapilus here and I think he does win, but with Van being $100 cheaper, I think I'll want to be underweight on Basharat and overweight on Van. | |||||
| Ricky Simon | 8600 | Mario Bautista | Somewhat-Risky | -192 | 240. |
| Simon is the better wrestler, but Bautista has a lot of slick striking so Simon will have to be careful. Simon at his best should be able to get takedowns here and land decent volume. It's probably hard for Simon to hit the optimal lineup unless he lands a submission win, so I'll have about 20% of him in lineups. | |||||
| Phil Hawes | 7900 | Brunno Ferreira | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 140. |
| THIS PLAY IS NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART! Hawes is the better technical striker, the better offensive wrestler, better defensive wrestler, has better cardio...and is the underdog for a good reason. Ferreira has a ton of power, and Hawes’ one weakness is his ability to take a punch so he could get KO'd quickly. I'm going to have this fight in nearly all my lineups as it is close to -800 to not go the distance so I'm not saying to fade Ferreira, but I do want to get as much Hawes into my lineups as I can. | |||||
| Matthew Semelsberger | 8400 | Preston Parsons | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 140. |
| This is a polarizing matchup. Semelsberger gets a knockdown in most of his fights and Parsons is very hittable, but he can also be taken down and Parsons will look to wrestle. Semelsberger needs to keep it standing but if he does, he could put up a massive score. | |||||
| Brunno Ferreira | 8300 | Phil Hawes | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | -120 |
| He's either scoring 100+ or he is going to score under 20, he's the same play as Hawes for a few hundred more dollars. He has power off the charts, but he doesn't have the skills to keep up with Hawes if he can't land the KO punch. | |||||
| Gabriel Benitez | 8000 | Jim Miller | Risky | 124 | 180. |
| Neither of these guys put up much volume, neither look to wrestle much, but as the 8200/8000 fight the winner won't need to do too much to pay off his price. Miller is a submission threat, who doesn't have great wrestling. Benitez is coming off of an 18-month layoff and is 36 years old, facing a 40-year-old veteran who has seen it all. Miller is tough to finish to I think this fight ends up getting to the judges’ scorecard. I'm leaning Benitez but I wouldn't be surprised either way this fight turns out. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mario Bautista | 7600 | Ricky Simon | Somewhat-Risky | 160 | 380. |
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Bautista, Hawes, Parsons, Bolanos, Lapilus
Picks and Stats
Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Johnny Walker |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 18-1-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC) |
9 | Knockouts | 16 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | +400 |
Matheus Nicolau | vs | Manel Kape |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 19-4-1 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 11 |
5 | Subs | 5 |
230 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
Jim Miller | vs | Gabriel Benitez |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 36-17-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-11-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
19 | Subs | 10 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |
Ricky Simon | vs | Mario Bautista |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
-192 | Vegas Odds | 160 |
Phil Hawes | vs | Brunno Ferreira |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
0 | ||
Andrei Arlovski | vs | Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 34-22-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
17 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
500 | Vegas Odds | -700 |
Matthew Semelsberger | vs | Preston Parsons |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 9 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
Marcus McGhee | vs | Gaston Bolanos |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 185 |
Farid Basharat | vs | Taylor Lapilus |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-278 | Vegas Odds | 225 |
Westin Wilson | vs | Jean Silva |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
Record: 16-8-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
11 | Subs | 2 |
625 | Vegas Odds | -950 |
Nikolas Motta | vs | Tom Nolan |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 13-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
275 | Vegas Odds | -345 |
Joshua Van | vs | Felipe Bunes |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
-258 | Vegas Odds | 210 |