MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+ followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+ and ESPN and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 PM ET. Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays on DraftKings for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Low | -135/+115 | +275/+190 |
| The fourth meeting between two absolute legends in the kickboxing and MMA worlds takes place this weekend in a great fight. Adesanya comes in as the favorite again in this matchup despite being 0-3 in his matchups against Alex with the reasoning that "he was winning the fight until he was knocked out". We just had this same type of line for Usman Edwards 3, and we saw how that ended. Both of these guys should be played in lineups at their reasonable salaries. If Izzy wins, he is going to land 100+ strikes, and a takedown. If Alex wins, it’s going to be by KO. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Karl Williams | 9500 | Chase Sherman | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | +130 |
| Williams is in here on short notice, but his wrestling has been great in his few fights in the octagon. Sherman lacks the wrestling defense to stop Williams from getting this down and he was preparing for a striker in Chris Barnett, so he hasn't been training for this style of fight. My biggest concern here is that Williams gasses out due to taking this on short notice. | |||||
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 9400 | Trey Ogden | Somewhat-Safe | -375 | +120 |
| Bahamondes has good striking and while Ogden is tough but doesn't have the striking defense to keep up with him here. I think Bahamondes is able to find a finish either with his dynamic striking or his submission game. | |||||
| Jaqueline Amorim | 9000 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +130 |
| Amorim has great submission skills, and while her wrestling isn't as good as her submission skills, I still think she should be able to get this fight to the ground at some point. Hughes is tough, but her wrestling defense is her weakness, so this seems like a perfect matchup for Amorim. | |||||
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 9100 | Christian Rodriguez | Moderate | -240 | +120 |
| Rosas is only 18 years old, so he is going to be getting better every time we see him in the cage, but this is a step up in competition for him. I'll still be picking him to find the submission because his skills are that good, but if he can't get this fight to the ground he is going to be way behind in terms of striking. I'll be rostering both of these fighters across my lineups. | |||||
| Gilbert Burns | 9600 | Jorge Masvidal | Moderate | -450 | -105 |
| I love Burns, but Jorge is a tough matchup for anyone in this division when it comes to scoring on DraftKings. Jorge has been taken down recently, but it was by fighters like Usman and Covington who have far superior wrestling skills than Burns. If Burns does get it to the ground, I don't think Jorge gets back up unless he survives to the end of the round because Burns' ground game is that good. I love Burns to win the fight but at his salary, he needs to score 115 pts to reach the optimal lineup and that is a tough task in this matchup. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Joe Pyfer | 8700 | Gerald Meerschaert | Moderate | -200 | -135 |
| Pyfer is much more fluid striking so early on he is going to have the clear advantages, but as the fight goes on if he can't find the finish, he is going to have to deal with GM3's submission threats. Pyfer has a high ceiling, and until he gasses out, he is going to look like a -500 favorite but if the fight gets into Round 2 this fight could get greasy. | |||||
| Luana Pinheiro | 8600 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Moderate | -165 | +350 |
| Pinheiro has the wrestling advantage in this matchup, which is great for scoring on DraftKings, so I'll be playing more of her than Waterson. Pinheiro has a higher upside than Waterson in this matchup, but this is a big step up in competition to what she had been fighting previously so if I'm playing only 1 lineup I'm probably looking elsewhere. | |||||
| Adrian Yanez | 8500 | Rob Font | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +130 |
| Yanez is another fighter in this price range making a huge step up in competition. I think this line is off and should be closer to -110 but Font is the dance partner you want to have in this weight class as he is always in your face. If Yanez is going to win this fight, he needs to land 125+ strikes in a decision win, or he needs to find a knockout. I'll be heavily invested in this fight and while I'll have more Font than Yanez, whoever wins this fight has a floor of around 85 and a ceiling of 100+. | |||||
| Chris Curtis | 8000 | Kelvin Gastelum | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +330 |
| This fight is a huge question mark and is priced like it. Curtis is going to throw more volume and should be able to stay at range and win the striking exchanges, but Gastelum has been extremely durable so finding the finish here is going to be tough. I won't have much of either side of this fight but if I do take a shot it is going to be on Curtis. | |||||
| Rob Font | 7700 | Adrian Yanez | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +500 |
| Font is a volume monster and in this matchup against Yanez he should have the advantage in that department again. In his recent fights, he has been getting rocked and knocked down multiple times against the best of the best in the division, but no one has been able to find the clean knockout. If Font doesn't get rocked, he should be able to win this fight, and for a cherry on top, I think he actually has the wrestling advantage if he needs to resort to it. I'll have plenty of Font and I think he is one of the better plays for cash games. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 6900 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +400 |
| I don't love the low end of fighters this week, but this line is just disrespectful. Santiago is a clean striker, and he has been on the wrong side of a few bad split decisions recently, so for this price, I'm taking a shot. No one has been able to finish Kevin Holland yet so that is tough to ask for, but even in a striking decision, he could hit the optimal lineup at his price. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7500 | Joe Pyfer | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +230 |
| He could get finished within the first minute of the fight, or he could win this fight and score 100+ with a slick submission. He is only +230 inside the distance so the books are saying he wins this fight and wins by finish about 30% so for that reason I'll have him in about 20% of my lineups. | |||||
| Cynthia Calvillo | 7000 | Loopy Godinez | Risky | +240 | +650 |
| Calvillo makes her return to 115 lbs and I'm not sure what version of her we even get but for $7000 I'm willing to find out. In her prime, I would say Calvillo has a wrestling advantage here but at this point in her career I'll say it is closer to even, but for +240 I'm willing to take a shot on her. | |||||
| Christian Rodriguez | 7100 | Raul Rosas Jr. | Risky | +210 | +500 |
| Rodriguez has the advantage on the feet, but it is going to be tough for him to keep it there as he has been taken down in every one of his fights in the UFC. Rosas is extremely confident in his skills so I expect him to just run into the fire headfirst to get these takedowns, there is going to be an opening for Rodriguez at some point, will he land it is the question. | |||||
| Steve Garcia | 7300 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | Risky | +150 | +400 |
| Garcia's last three fights have been absolutely insane and have included 7 knockdowns and 3 takedowns over only 10 minutes so expect some action in this matchup. I'll have a lot of Garcia but the way his fights run out he could be the one landing the knockdowns or he could be the one getting knocked out. | |||||
| Sam Hughes | 7200 | Jaqueline Amorim | Risky | +225 | +600 |
| Sam Hughes has been a tough out in her UFC career, and Amorim has never been out of Round 1in a fight, so it'll be interesting to see how this fight plays out if it gets extended. I don't think Hughes scores well in a decision win, so she'll need fighters in her price range to lose to hit the optimal. | |||||
UFC 287 MMA DFS DraftKings Example Lineup
UFC 287 Live Underdogs
Pereira, Font, Calvillo, Curtis, Garcia
UFC 287 Stats and Picks
Alex Pereira | vs | Israel Adesanya |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 23-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 15 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Gilbert Burns | vs | Jorge Masvidal |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 35-16-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 16 |
9 | Subs | 2 |
-450 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Rob Font | vs | Adrian Yanez |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 10 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 23-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 30-6-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 16 |
6 | Subs | 6 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Raul Rosas Jr. | vs | Christian Rodriguez |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
0 | ||
Chris Curtis | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 30-9-0 | Record | Record: 17-8-0 (1 NC) |
17 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez | vs | Luana Pinheiro |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 18-10-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
9 | Subs | 5 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
Gerald Meerschaert | vs | Joe Pyfer |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 35-15-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
27 | Subs | 2 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Karl Williams | vs | Chase Sherman |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-11-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 15 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +310 |
Cynthia Calvillo | vs | Loopy Godinez |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 9-5-1 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
+240 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
Ignacio Bahamondes | vs | Trey Ogden |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 0 |
1 | Subs | 11 |
-375 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | vs | Steve Garcia |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 39-10-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
19 | Knockouts | 10 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
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