MMA DFS Playbook UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
UFC 280 Oliveira vs Makhachev kicks off with the early prelims at 10:30 AM EST on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on PPV at 2:00PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS.
Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 280
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Low | -190/+160 | -450 |
| This fight should be absolute chaos for as long as it lasts. Oliveira is ultra confident in his ability to trade strikes, or grapple with anyone in the division so don't expect him to be standing on the outside for too long. Makhachev has some nice kicks, but the strength of his game is the wrestling that he goes to early and often in most of his fights. Charles has been taken down in some of his past fights, but it was against wrestlers who didn't possess any submission threat, so he seemed comfortable to get to the ground just to have a chance at getting the submission. This fight is a true 50/50 fight, and both should of them should be considered for cash games and GPPs. I would avoid stacking it in GPPs since Oliveira rarely gets to the judges’ scorecards and I don't expect this to get to round 4 or 5. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Muhammad Mokaev | 9600 | Malcolm Gordon | Somewhat-Safe | -115 | -225 |
| Mokaev is still green at only 21 years old, but he has the skills to be a future title contender in this division. He is the safest fighter on the card because even in a decision win he will score 100+ points with his high volume wrestling. Gordon has shown durability issues in other fight so my only concern would be Mokaev getting the win too quickly to score 115+. | |||||
| Petr Yan | 9300 | Sean O'Malley | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +250 |
| I personally would line this fight closer to -450 for Yan since I think he can get O'Malley to the ground and control the fight, and he also has more power. Yan starts slow so the biggest concern with the $9300 price tag is that the first round is a feeling out process and he does not take over until late. O'Malley has smooth striking and is going to look to maintain distance, so I could see Yan failing to score well if he does not find a finish. | |||||
| Caio Borralho | 9000 | Makhmud Muradov | Somewhat-Safe | -205 | +170 |
| Borralho is a great wrestler, but normally prioritizes position over hunting the finish which limits his upside. I'm really high on him so I'll have more than the field but there is a good chance he ends the night in the 80-90 point range in a win which won't get it done in a GPP. | |||||
| Karol Rosa | 9200 | Lina Lansberg | Moderate | -325 | +250 |
| Rosa throws a ton of volume and gets to fight an aging veteran in Lansberg here. Rosa has landed 170+ ss in one fight and routinely hits around 100 and I expect another high output performance here. Lansberg has zero stopping power so outside of a fluke I don't see Rosa losing this fight. Rosa by decision will be my official pick, which normally is a disaster for woman's MMA in terms of DraftKings scoring but Rosa is Max Holloway light, and 100+ points based mostly off of striking volume is in play for her. | |||||
| Armen Petrosyan | 9100 | AJ Dobson | Moderate | -205 | -105 |
| Petrosyan should have his hands full early as Dobson can be explosive before his gas tank drains. Petrosyan should take over the later the fight goes, but Dobson has never been finished in his 7 pro fights so I'll look elsewhere to spend my salary. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 8800 | Beneil Dariush | Moderate | -190 | +225 |
| Gamrot is an extremely well rounded fighter and is going to be at the top of this division for a long time. Skill for skill these fighters are close, but the one area that is a red flag is in how well they take damage. Dariush has been KO'd by lesser competition and rocked in several other fights by fighters who are far from power punchers. I expect a back and fourth fight and a decision victory for Gamrot, but if someone is getting KO'd it is going to be Dariush. | |||||
| Manon Fiorot | 8900 | Katlyn Chookagian | Moderate | -210 | +350 |
| Fiorot has more power than Chookagian but has not faced anyone nearly as skilled in her UFC tenure yet. Fiorot should land the more meaningful strikes while Chookagian lands more volume but overall, less damage. Fiorot can wrestle a bit but I'm not sure if she wants to go to the ground against a BJJ black belt (although Chookagian never uses it so who knows how good it really is) when she should find success on the feet. She wins but I'll be fading in my lineups. | |||||
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 8700 | Gadzhi Omargadzhiev | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +275 |
| Do not let the last name fool you, in two UFC fights so far Abubakar is 2 for 6 on takedown attempts and one of them led to him getting submitted by triangle choke. He doesn't throw much volume, and Omargadzhiev doesn't throw much either so this fight could be a slow paced low scoring affair. Omargadzhiev was dominated on the ground in his last fight so it is possible that if it hits the ground Nurmagomedov could have an advantage, but I'm personally going to avoid the fight unless I'm entering 10+ lineups in a contest. | |||||
| Nikita Krylov | 8600 | Volkan Oezdemir | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +110 |
| Krylov is highly skilled and normally comes out throwing with a ton of power early so a high score is on the table here. Krylov's main issue has always been his fight IQ and there is no better example than his fight against Paul Craig. Krylov had a clear striking advantage but engaged on the ground against the submission or bust Craig and ended up getting submitted in round 1. Oezdemir fought Craig last fight out and refused to go to the ground even after landing heavy and Craig flopping to his back. Krylov has more upside in this spot than Oezdemir, but he is hard to trust. GPP only avoid in cash games. | |||||
| Aljamain Sterling | 8500 | TJ Dillashaw | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +300 |
| I am going to put Sterling and Dillashaw in the somewhat risky area here but that doesn't mean you should avoid them. Vegas favors the fight to go 5 rounds and while Sterling rarely puts up 100+ in his wins he scores 85+ in almost all of them. The fight ends inside the distance either by Sterling submission or Dillashaw TKO in the later rounds. A must play in cash games and a good GPP play. | |||||
| TJ Dillashaw | 7700 | Aljamain Sterling | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +425 |
| TJ likely grabs more ownership than Sterling due to the $800 in savings so for single entry tournaments I'll be on the Sterling side but TJ is a great play in his own right. There is also a path here where TJ lands 100+ ss, 2 takedowns and 5 minutes of control time and scores 70pts in a loss, making him a must play in cash games. | |||||
| Sean Brady | 8200 | Belal Muhammad | Risky | -135 | +275 |
| Brady vs Muhammad is going to be a chess match where Brady is a little better of a wrestler and Belal is a better striker, but both are well rounded. Brady showed last time out that his strong wrestling starts to get a little sloppier as the fight goes on and Belal has shown he can go five hard rounds with a high pace so I'm expecting Brady to win Round 1 and it being a toss-up after that. Brady is going to be the higher owned fighter in this matchup so if you are playing cash and need a piece I would use him, in GPPs I'd look elsewhere as Muhammad is very durable and finding a finish against him is a tough ask. I don't like to think about the judges and how the fans can influence a fight, but in the press conferences Brady was booed nonstop and the fans loved Belal. Brady throws almost no volume on the ground and just hunts position and submissions so if he isn't throwing ground and pound the boos of the crowd could lead to a quicker than usual stand up against the hometown favorite (even though Belal is from Chicago). | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 7600 | Nikita Krylov | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +275 |
| It's hard to trust which version of Volkan is going to show up here. Volkan's losses are against some of the best in the division; Daniel Cormier, Jiri, Dominick Reyes and Ankalaev but even in these fights against top ranked guys he is still winning a round in most of the fights or at least keeping them competitive. I think if he keeps it standing, he can win this fight, but even in a decision win he may not outscore TJ for only $100 even if TJ losses a decision. I'm viewing Volkan as a KO or bust pick. | |||||
| Katlyn Chookagian | 7300 | Manon Fiorot | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +850 |
| She should be quicker, she should land more volume, but she has almost zero chance to finish this fight. Chookagian has some of the best footwork in the division so it'll be a good test to see if Fiorot really belongs in the top of the weight class. I'm considering Chookagian in cash game lineups, and she is viable in GPPs if you think the fighters below her are all going to lose their fights. | |||||
| Gadzhi Omargadzhiev | 7500 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Risky | +140 | +380 |
| I haven't been impressed with him much in his UFC tenure, but he is only +140 and $7500 so he has odds value but that means he is going to get some higher ownership from people playing Islam + Sterling. I'm going to be avoiding this fight but if you are making a lineup and find yourself in this price range, he isn't the worst last piece in. | |||||
| AJ Dobson | 7100 | Armen Petrosyan | Risky | +170 | +275 |
| Dobson is a high risk high reward play here. Out of all the dogs under $7600 I think he is most likely to put up 100+ and Vegas agrees making him only +275 inside the distance (same as Brady for $8200 and Nurmagomedov for $8700). This feels like the same play as Menifield last week, except for $2000 cheaper. | |||||
| Sean O'Malley | 6900 | Petr Yan | Risky | +225 | +500 |
| O'Malley has the reach advantage and has crisp striking so if he can keep it at range he can squeak this out. Yan starts slow so if O'Malley can do what Sterling did and just outpoint him in round 1 anything is possible after that. Yan likely wins, and I don't see O'Malley finding a finish so I'm giving O'Malley a ceiling of around 70 pts. I'll be avoiding him in my lineups, not because I think O'Malley isn't a great fighter, but I just believe Yan reclaims the title some point in the next year. | |||||
| Malcolm Gordon | 6600 | Muhammad Mokaev | Risky | +750 | +1,100 |
| I have to talk about the lowest priced fighter on the card even if I don't want to. Gordon is in over his head here, but Mokaev is only 21 years old and everyone in the fight game learns a lesson at some point. Islam Makhachev was KO'd by Adriano Martins six years ago and since then Martins is 0-6 in professional fights, fluke KOs happen. We are watching two men get locked in a cage and punch each other in the face so anything can happen. With that said I won't be playing him in any lineups. | |||||
| Lina Lansberg | 7000 | Karol Rosa | Risky | +270 | +1,000 |
| The "Elbow Queen" is 40 years old and hasn't knocked anyone out in 6 years. This is a passing of the torch fight where the old veteran gets fed to the 27 year old prospect to add a name to her resume. One thing about Lansberg is she is still pretty durable, if you want to throw her in a cash lineup and hope you get 20-30 points over 15 minutes its fine but I'm avoiding in GPPs. | |||||
| Makhmud Muradov | 7200 | Caio Borralho | Risky | +175 | +300 |
| He has decent odds for his price but and is KO or bust, but I'm higher than most on Borralho so I'm putting him down here. Muradov has KO power and if he lands flush he could knock out Borralho, but I don't like putting my money on things that haven't happened before so I'm going to bank on Borralho to get it done. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Oliveira, Dillashaw, Muhammad, Oezdimir, Dobson
Stats and Picks
Charles Oliveira | vs | Islam Makhachev |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 33-8-0 | Record | Record: 22-1-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
21 | Subs | 10 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Aljamain Sterling | vs | TJ Dillashaw |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Petr Yan | vs | Sean O'Malley |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-265 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
Beneil Dariush | vs | Mateusz Gamrot |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 21-4-1 | Record | Record: 21-1-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 5 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Manon Fiorot |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
0 | ||
Belal Muhammad | vs | Sean Brady |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 21-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Makhmud Muradov | vs | Caio Borralho |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 25-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
17 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Nikita Krylov |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 28-9-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 12 |
1 | Subs | 15 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Abubakar Nurmagomedov | vs | Gadzhi Omargadzhiev |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 16-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Armen Petrosyan | vs | A.J Dobson |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Muhammad Mokaev | vs | Malcolm Gordon |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 8-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-1,100 | Vegas Odds | +750 |
Karol Rosa | vs | Lina Lansburg |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-6-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-325 | Vegas Odds | +285 |
PrizePicks Props
- Rosa O 78.5 Fantasy Score
- Brady U 55.5 SS
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