PGA DFS Playbook: U.S. Open

It’s a major championship and yes Louis will make another appearance.  He is one of the best players in the world when the field is the strongest.  He may not win the event but he always puts himself into contention and pays off his value in DFS.  Before his Top 20 at the Memorial in his last start, he had finished inside the Top 10 in three straight events.  Second at the PGA Championship, eighth at the Valspar and runner up at the Zurich.  In his last four major championship performances, he’s finished second at the 2021 PGA Championship, 26th at the Masters, 3rd at the U.S. Open and 33rd at the 2020 PGA. One of the reasons that he’s always successful at Majors is because of his short game and putting.  He ranks 1st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting along with 18th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.  He also doesn’t hurt himself ranking inside the Top 35 in Bogey Avoidance.  Louis is as consistent as they come especially when it comes to the majors. 

Jason won his first PGA Tour event earlier this year at the CJ Cup and use that momentum to score his second win at the Charles Schwab just a couple weeks ago.  Aside from those victories, he’s got Top 10 finishes at WGC-Workday, Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS.  This 36-year-old has all the length needed to tame Torrey Pines, ranking 22nd in both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He’s also 5th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, and 25th in Greens in Regulation.  Jason has back to back Top 30 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open.

The 47-year-old Stewart Cink has won twice on tour this season, that’s remarkable.  He won the Safeway Open early in the 2020-2021 season and then RBC Heritage in mid-April.  He also finished Top 15 at the Masters.  The veteran ranks 6th on Tour in Greens in Regulation, 26th in Bogey Avoidance, 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 29th in Driving Distance and 55th in Strokes Gained: Putting.  Cink nearly snuck into the Top 10 at the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey with a 67 on Sunday but finished tied for 14th. 

Something has awoken in Vegas over the last few weeks and I personally love to see it.  Just finished runner up at the Palmetto and finished ninth at the Byron Nelson in his previous start.  Why not ride the hot hand?  One of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour and he can be a birdie machine if he gets things rolling.  Torrey Pines demands a good driver and that’s his best skill on the golf course.  He currently ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 14th in Driving Distance.  a few bucks to see if he can.

He’s been one of the best stories of the PGA Tour season.  Lee has found his game once again and it’s been with the help of his caddy and now wife, Helen Storey.  The couple just tied the knot on June 12th and their honeymoon will be in San Diego at the U.S. Open.  How can you not put down a few bucks on a guy who just got married?  She has brought a calmness to his life and his golf game which has resulted in a Top 15 at last year’s U.S. Open and back to back runner up finishes at the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS earlier this year.  Also, when you look back at that 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey, everyone forgets that he finished third behind Tiger and Rocco. Lee was one shot back of Tiger heading into the final round and shot a two over 73 which was the same score as Tiger. 

You want to talk about talented drivers of the golf ball, that list has to include Brendan Steele.  He has actually finished the season as the tour’s top ranked total driver.  The numbers don’t show that this season but he has not missed a single cut during the 2021 season.  Over that span, he has three Top 10s, and another three Top 30s.  Steele also has two Top 15 finishes in his career at the U.S. Open.  I’m not saying this will be easy for Brendan this weekend but he has the ability to make noise this weekend. 

The reigning Open Championship is rounding into top form as we get closer to his title defense.  I feel like Shane Lowry is flying under the radar despite three Top 10 finishes in his last four starts; 9th at the RBC Heritage, 4th at the PGA Championship, and 6th in Memorial Tournament.  He also finished 21st at the Masters as well.  He does have two Top 10 finishes in his U.S. Open history.  While he hasn’t won this championship, he does still have the Claret Jug at home, so that scores extra points with me.  One of the best players throughout his bag ranking inside the Top 45 in all Strokes Gained categories except putting.  That’s about as consistent as you can get when it comes to a PGA Tour professional. 

Troy will never impress you with his distance off the tee but he can keep it in the short grass on a regular basis which will be vital this weekend.  He is also one of the most consistent putters on the PGA Tour as well. I like him this weekend because he’s played fantastic golf heading into the U.S. Open.  He has three Top 10 finishes in his last five starts.  What I like most about these high finishes at the Valspar, Byron Nelson, and Charles Schwab is they are three very different courses.  That tells me he can adapt to most any course.  Merritt makes for nice salary cap relief when you’re trying to squeeze in a couple of the top tier players.

Last week at the Palmetto Championship was very indicative of Harris’ season as a whole.  It’s been a roller coaster ride for a pretty consistent player on the PGA Tour.  After a fantastic start to the 2020-2021 season with 3 Top 10 finishes (including win at the Sentry) between mid-November to mid-January, things fell off.  He looked to be regaining form at the Masters finishing 21st and then 13th at the Byron Nelson before his 64th place at the PGA Championship.  He was tied for the lead on the back nine on Sunday before going three over par on the last two holes.  English has never missed the cut at the U.S. Open and finished fourth last year.  He's made the cut in 8 of his last 9 starts at the Farmers with 2 Top 10 finishes.   I love his price tag especially if you are trying to fit in a couple top priced options. 

Gary has been an afterthought on the PGA Tour since his U.S. Open victory at Pebble Beach in 2019.  He struggled after the big win and then dealt with a hip injury at the end of 2020.  We’ve seen signs of life in his game over the last two months starting with a Top 10 at the Valero and followed that up with a Top 5 a few weeks later at the Wells Fargo. He still ranks 10th in Driving Distance and Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Approach despite his struggles in the early part of the 2020-2021 season.  I think he’ll be lower owned than players like Kokrak, Nieman, Im and Lowry in the similar price range. 

Rory won at the Wells Fargo in May but disappointed us at the PGA Championship on a course we’d seen him succeed on in the past.  I’m not going to crush him for struggling at Kiawah because a lot of players did.  He didn’t make his debut at Torrey Pines until 2019 but in his three trips, T5-T3-T16, not too shabby.  He sits right behind Bryson DeChambeau in Driving Distance and Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, we know about his ability to drive the ball.  Putting will be the key to his success this weekend.  Rory has been to the mountain top at the U.S. Open and knows what it takes to win.

What more can I say about this kid that hasn’t been said 100 times over.  The only thing he hasn’t done yet in his young career is win but came darn close with a runner up finish at the Masters.  He also finished eighth at the PGA Championship.  That is just one of his seven Top 10 finishes in 2021.  This kid can crush the ball off the tee (25th in Driving Distance), ball strike with the best of them on tour (3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green) and put himself into position to make birdies often (14th in Greens in Regulation).  While his last outing at the Charles Schwab was his worst finish in his young career (59th place), I’m actually hoping that will kill some of his ownership this weekend.

He has the mental ability to win a major championship ranking 13th in Bogey Avoidance.  While he disappointed us at the PGA Championship, it’s not going to stop me from rostering him especially after he bounced back with a Top 20 at the Charles Schwab.  We haven’t even mentioned how he started the season with a 7th at the Sony, a win at Pebble Beach, 9th at THE PLAYERS and 13th at the RBC Heritage.  Another guy who is steady throughout the bag ranking 10th in Greens in Regulation, 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 33rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and 29th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  Berger is another young player who has a terrific resume but it’s still missing that major victory.  That could happen sooner rather than later when it comes to him.

What more can I say about Tony? I love the guy.  He’s a lot like Xander in that he’s done everything on tour but win the major.  He is built for this course and it shows in his record at the Farmers.  He’s never missed the cut at Torrey and doesn’t have a finish worse than 24th.  He also finished runner up to Patrick Reed earlier this year along with another three Top 6 finishes.  Back to back Top 10 finishes in his last two major championship starts.  Finished eighth at the PGA Championship a few weeks back.  He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 7th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 27th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and 34th in Driving Distance.  I would really love to see this guy win this weekend.

I am going to be completely honest with you, I can never get this guy right.  When I push him in the playbook, he sucks, when I ignore him, he kills it.  I’m going to try it again because he just won at Torrey earlier this year at the Farmers. He also finished fifth at the Memorial just a couple weeks ago.  Reed makes his name chipping and putting, ranking 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 19th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.  He’s also solid throughout his bag ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Total.  While he hasn’t won a U.S. Open he does have a major under his belt and that scores extra points with me.

There is very little I don’t like about Collin Morikawa. The dude is just a stud from tee to green and he’s a problem for these more veteran tour pros.  He is just 24-years-old and already has four PGA Tour wins including a PGA Championship and a WGC.  Morikawa is the best ball striker on the PGA Tour and there is no debating that fact.  He ranks 1st in both Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation.  The only weakness in his game is length off the tee ranking outside the Top 100 but Top 15 in Driving Accuracy and still 30th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  The difficultly level of these par 4s at Torrey Pines is extremely high but he ranks fifth in Par 4 scoring.  The fact that he’s priced under 10K is just criminal and an extreme value, jump on it. 

Everyone is just waiting for him to break through and win that first major championship because that’s the only thing his resume is missing.  If he was ever going to do it, why not do it in his hometown of La Jolla, California.  He played his college golf at San Diego State and knows this course inside and out.  We heard stories from him about watching the 2008 U.S. Open live from the trees.  Before his missed cut at the PGA Championship, he had finished third, 17th, fifth, and 10th in his last four starts in the majors. While that’s disappointing for him, it works for DFS players.  In his last 17 events since his runner up at the Tour Championship back in September, he’s got two missed cuts and seven Top 10 finishes.  He’s 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 11th in Greens in Regulation, and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach.     

If you don’t think Rahm doesn’t have a huge chip on his shoulder heading into this weekend, I’ve got some ocean front property to sell you in Omaha.  A six stroke lead heading into Sunday at the Memorial just got wiped away and he’s not going to come out guns blazing at the U.S. Open?  He also has a great track record at Torrey Pines with a win and runner up finish at the Farmers Insurance.  He is second on tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fifth in Greens in Regulation, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach.  The only reason not to like him is his price tag but I’m going to pay up.

Brooks Koepka freely admits that he doesn’t get up mentally for a regular tour event like he does for a major championship. He knows that his career will be defined by how many major titles he wins.  He missed the cut at the Masters but I’m writing that off because of the knee surgery.  If you take that out, he finished runner up at last month’s PGA Championship, seventh at the 2020 Masters, won the 2019 PGA Championship, runner up at the 2019 Masters, won the PGA & U.S. Open in 2018 and won the 2017 U.S. Open.  I trust Brooks’ mental game being stronger than most anyone else in the field this weekend.