Another week that could have been absolutely fantastic if it weren’t for a few Sunday collapses. Harris English and Dustin Johnson both were in prime position to finish in the Top 3 before falling apart over the last five holes. I would still say it was a successful week but it could have been so much more. This is exactly why I didn’t play heavy because it was such an unpredictable situation in South Carolina. Enough with that random event, it’s time for our third major of the PGA Tour season, the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.
This will be the 121st U.S. Open and the second time that it has been played at Torrey Pines. The last time was in 2008 in what would be Tiger’s last major championship victory before his amazing run at the 2019 Masters. He was taken to a playoff by the unlikeliest of players, Rocco Mediate. Xander Schauffele is the sixth ranked player in the world was just a teenager in 2008 and tells stories about watching that event live from a tree. The 7,652 yard, par 71 course has changed slightly but still feature narrow fairways and thick rough and the greens are poa annua. The second hole is the only par 4 under 400 yards on the course. The signature par 3 third hole is measured at 195 but there are multiple tee boxes and wind directions, these players could be using any number of clubs to attack this hole throughout the week. The easiest hole should once again be the 568 yard par 5 finisher which will make for high levels of drama down the stretch. The biggest change over the 13 years will be the field. These players are more analytical, stronger, leaner and overall better. The South course at Torrey typically ranks inside the Top 15 toughest in Fairways Hit, Greens in Regulation, Proximity and Scrambling. Driving, approach and scrambling will be keys to success this weekend.
The U.S. Open has always been known for trying to challenge all parts of the player’s game from the mental to the physical. You’ll have all the usual characteristics of the U.S. Open with narrow fairways, thick tough rough, and greens are like putting on a hardwood floor. A player like Bryson DeChambeau won’t be able to overpower this course the way he did at Winged Foot in 2020. The rough will take its toll of these players if they can’t keep it in the short grass. I’m going to be targeting players who have experience playing in U.S. Open and know what it takes to win. I’m not taking away anything from what Bryson did in 2020, it was phenomenal but I’m just saying this week will be a different story.
When Tiger Woods won the U.S. Open on Torrey in 2008, he finished with a score of one under par. When you look at the average winning score of the Farmers Insurance Open over the last five years, it’s nearly 15 under par. That’s why I’ll look at the recent results at the Farmers but it won’t be heavily weighted, this week will play more difficult than it did back in January. I expect the winner to come in around four to six under par.
We should see perfect conditions this weekend. The weather looks to be typical of San Diego in the summer, temperatures in the mid-high 70s with winds coming off the ocean. As of right now, the forecast has the winds being relatively calm sitting between 8-12 MPH throughout the weekend.
ONE & DONE PICK OF THE WEEK: Brooks Koepka
Good luck everyone!
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