MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Vegas 58
We’ve got a pretty solid offering from the UFC tonight with this UFC Vegas 58 Fight Night card. The main event between Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev headlines the action for our MMA DFS lineups. Despite being on the heels of a PPV the promotion emptied the tank for, this weekend's fight card includes plenty of entertaining matchups to build UFC daily fantasy lineups. There figure to be action-packed fights with tons of potential finishes, which should make our UFC DFS contests even more interesting. Let's take a closer look at the UFC Vegas 58 fight card and be sure to check out the current UFC odds to determine which fighters could be MMA DFS top plays.
UPDATE: Tonight's fight between Nina Nunes and Cynthia Calvillo has been CANCELLED.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +175/ -205 | +425/+200 |
| This should be a fire main event. RDA wins with pace and breaking opponents not ready to go to the deep waters he lives in. Fiziev has world class kickboxing and his kicks are harder than anyone going. It's a decent stack given both mens durability. Ultimately I side with Fiziev. You can't absorb his striking for an extended period and not be compromised. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| David Onama | 9300 | Garrett Armfield | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -165 |
| Onama has shown a lot of promise for a young fighter. He's tough and packs a ton of power. His flaw has been an over-aggresiveness but that hasn't cost him. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 9200 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | +100 |
| After the pandemic derailed his activity Said is making a charge for the top of the division. The time off allowed him to continue improving. He's a dynamic striker with great kicks. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 9100 | Michael Johnson | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -105 |
| If Mullarkey can survive the first round he should be able to turn the tables the way so many have on Johnson. Mullarkey has the toughness to do it. | |||||
| Caio Borralho | 8900 | Armen Petrosyan | Moderate | -240 | +130 |
| It's odd Caio is this expensive for a matchup of two prospects. He's a talented grappler but Petrosyan just survived against Gregory Rodrigues. If the fight is on the mat he still wins, though. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 8400 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | Moderate | -135 | +380 |
| You have to be heavy on Lawrence. He fights at a blitzkrieg pace and wrestling is integral to his attack. He gassed in the third of his last fight but claimed he had food poisoning during the weight cut. | |||||
| Jared Vanderaa | 8600 | Chase Sherman | Moderate | -200 | +110 |
| Big ugly heavyweights square off to see who gets to stay on the UFC roster. If Vanderaa manages to find a takedown or two he probably gets the win. | |||||
| Ricky Turcios | 8800 | Aiemann Zahabi | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +240 |
| Turcios leaves openings in favor of fighting fast. That works often but the one thing Zahabi does well is counter punch. | |||||
| Tresean Gore | 8300 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +215 |
| Gore is getting a fight he needs to win to show he's UFC ready. Brundage is hittable and can be hurt. He'll also test Gore's defensive wrestling. | |||||
| Antonina Shevchenko | 8700 | Cortney Casey | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +300 |
| The other Shev sister hasn't had a great UFC run. The winner of this fight is probably the one who lands a takedown. | |||||
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 8200 | Karl Roberson | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +225 |
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nina Nunes | 7700 | Cynthia Calvillo | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +475 |
| Nunes is trying to get back on track after time away to start a family. Cavillo has been checked out for a couple of fights now. This is likely her last. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 7900 | Tresean Gore | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +250 |
| We know who Brundage is: a gritty journeyman that's wrestles okay. We don't know who Gore is and if the hype train is baseless this could be an upset. | |||||
| Chase Sherman | 7600 | Jared Vanderaa | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +300 |
| Sherman is the sharper striker in a heavyweight slugfest. It pays to play gross HW dogs long-term. | |||||
| Armen Petrosyan | 7300 | Caio Borralho | Risky | +200 | +330 |
| I like the price on Petrosyan here. He can easily outstrike the Borralho we've seen. It's possible he gets out-wrestled and doesn't get the chance but they start on the feet. | |||||
| Cortney Casey | 7500 | Antonina Shevchenko | Risky | +145 | +450 |
| Casey is a tough fighter with little polish. She's often been done in by the takedown. Antonina doesn't have much wrestling, though. | |||||
| Aiemann Zahabi | 7400 | Ricky Turcios | Risky | +160 | +350 |
| Zahabi is a vet but getting little respect here. Turcios volume makes him an easy favorite but Zahabi does have better than a punchers chance to land a counter. | |||||
| Michael Johnson | 7100 | Jamie Mullarkey | Risky | +190 | +350 |
| Johnson will look good early with slick boxing. He just finds ways to lose fights, often after winning up to that point. | |||||
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 7000 | Said Nurmagomedov | Risky | +285 | +500 |
| Silva de Andrade has shown he's a grown man. Said may have some trouble if it becomes a dog fight. | |||||
EXAMPLE LINEUP
Live Dogs: RDA, Sherman, Petrosyan, Nunes, Brundage, Casey, Johnson
| Rafael Dos Anjos | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 31-13-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 10 | Subs | 1 |
| +175 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Caio Borralho | vs | Armen Petrosyan |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 7 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 1 | Subs | 3 |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | vs | Said Nurmagomedov |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 28-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 20 |
| 0 | Subs | 2 |
| +285 | Vegas Odds | -345 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Jared Vanderaa | vs | Chase Sherman |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 12-8-0 | Record | Record: 15-10-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 7 |
| 4 | Subs | 3 |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | vs | Nina Nunes |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 9-4-1 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 |
| 14 | Knockouts | 2 |
| 0 | Subs | 3 |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Michael Johnson | vs | Jamie Mullarkey |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 21-17-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
| 4 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 2 | Subs | 2 |
| +190 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | vs | Ricky Turcios |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
| 10 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 3 | Subs | 3 |
| +160 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | vs | Cortney Casey |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-9-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 1 | Subs | 1 |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Cody Brundage | vs | Tresean Gore |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
| 3 | Knockouts | 3 |
| 4 | Subs | 3 |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| David Onama | vs | Garrett Armfield |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 1 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 1 | Subs | 3 |
| -750 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Karl Roberson |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
| 5 | Knockouts | 6 |
| 2 | Subs | 0 |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | vs | Saidyokub Kakhramonov
|
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 2 | Knockouts | 4 |
| 4 | Subs | 0 |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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