MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 116

UFC Fight Night 116: Rockhold vs. Branch 

Saturday night the UFC rolls into Pittsburgh, PA for their 116th Fight Night card, headlined by Luke Rockhold vs. David Branch. There are some other intriguing matchups on the undercard, and many prospects who are being hand fed their next victory. There are very few mid-tier fighters ($7,800 - $8,300) that we can roster, as the fight card is down to 10 fights in total, and a few late replacements had to be called in to save 2 other fights. Without many fighters in the mid-tier range, it makes it difficult to not have some real bums in your lineups, as the high end salaries that you want require you to take some trash along with the gold. There really aren’t many “Live Dogs” either, and this is where it really becomes difficult to create competitive lineups. Usually there are 2-3 fighters per card who have a legit chance at winning their fights as an underdog. This card is missing those fighters, so we’ll have to get creative, and it can’t hurt to have a little luck mixed in as well!

You’ll also realize that I have been working on a new, more detailed, tale of the tape, as I preview you it on the last fight. Take a look and let me know your thoughts or if you’d like to see something else added to it. I plan on continuing to give you tools to use and make your roster creation as confident as possible. The more data, the easier it is to make decisions! Without further ado, let’s get into the fights!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night isn’t one I’ll be paying much attention to from a DFS perspective, so if you are short on time, feel free to skip to the next fight. Gilbert Burns and Jason Saggo or two middle of the road fighters that will be able to tell some great stories to their grand kids when they’re older about fighting in the UFC, but they’ll never have a legacy of being one of MMA’s best. Both are very skilled grapplers, and Burns is arguably one of the best grapplers in the world, so there is reason to watch this fight, but I just don’t think it is very important from a DFS angle.

Saggo has a nice kicking game, and is average with his hands, but he’s a game fighter, and most likely will draw this one out to a decision. Saggo’s best part of his game is his grappling, as he’s a BJJ Black Belt under the Gracie’s, but unfortunately, this part of the game where Saggo excels most is where Burns separates himself from other humans. Burns is also a BJJ Black Belt, but don’t get his black belt confused with Saggo’s black belt. Burns is a BJJ World Champion who decided in 2012 to focus his attention on MMA rather than just BJJ. That moved proved to be a successful one, as he’s racked up an 11-2 pro MMA record, while holding a respectable 4-2 mark in the UFC.

The problem with this matchup is that Saggo doesn’t have many paths to victory here, as the ground game, which he usually excels at, is not something he wants to fool around with when Gilbert Burns is locked in a cage with you. Saggo has solid kicks, and likes to use a karate style which affords him the ability to dart in and out of the pocket, throwing heavy high kicks, and effective jabs. His style combined with Burns’ leads me to believe that this will be a fight that goes the distance, and could be a boring one. Their ground games could easily cancel each other out, and that often leads to very few DK points being scored.

This matchup is not one I want to mess with when it comes to my lineups, but if you are look for a hardcore contrarian lineup, then consider rostering Saggo.

 PICK:                                                 Burns, Dec, Unanimous                                                      

Cash Game:                                       N/A     

GPP:                                                   N/A

Snapshot:

After a few late cancellations, this card is down to 10 fights, making our DFS selections that much more important. We need to hitch our wagon to the horses that have the least amount of question marks, and have high Fight IQ’s. You’ve heard me mention this term over and over again, and I’m a true believer that it is a huge difference maker in rostering winners, and being profitable in DFS. Fight IQ has become more and more important as the sport of MMA evolves and becomes more sophisticated. These guys are all getting so good, that it’s coming down to 1-2 mistakes in a 15 minute fight, or 4-5 crucial moments that is determining the better MMA fighters in a high-level donnybrook, and Fight IQ is often the differentiating factor between the two combatants.

I’ll say it now, and I’ll say it loud: I hate Uriah Hall’s Fight IQ! Here;s a guy who arguably has the most raw talent when it comes to striking in the UFC, but he is on a 3 fight losing streak, and often finds himself incredibly inconsistent with his output, and ultimately, his results in the Octagon. He has some incredible highlight reel KO’s, but he also has some amazingly boring fights that showcase him throwing strikes at a very slow rate, and going through the motions in the cage. If there is a more inconsistent fighter in the UFC, I’d like you to email me his name, because I think Uriah Hall takes the cake!

Jotko is a fan favorite, and the 28 year old has had pretty good success in the UFC, going 6-2, most recently dropping a split decision to this cards headliner, David Branch. Jotko doesn’t throw with a high intensity, only mustering up 2.74 SLpM (Strikes Landed per Minute), which is ranked 16th on the card. He doesn’t throw a high volume, and this allows him to be ready on the defensive end, and this explains his 1.55 SApM(Strikes Absorbed per Minute), and his 62% defensive striking ratio. Both stats are near the top for this card.

So what’s this tell us when considering rostering these two fighters? It tells me that I don’t have confidence in rostering Hall, as he has been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career, and you really have no idea which Uriah Hall you are going to get inside the cage on Saturday night. You could get the 120 point Uriah Hall, or you could also get the 7 point Uriah Hall. In my eyes this risk isn’t worth rostering him. I will have him in a few contrarian GPP rosters with Hall included, but overall, I’ll be keeping my distance. Jotko is active enough, and I assume he’ll be even more histiant and defensive minded knowing how dangerous Hall can be if his minds into it.

PICK:                                                  Jotko, Dec, Unanimous                                           

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Hall (5/10): A nice contrarian GPP play, because if he does land his crazy shots, then he will easily put up 105+ points, but there is an even better chance he gets dragged to the ground by Jotko, and finds himself in a slow-paced, positional ground battle with Jotko. Not risking it.

Snapshot:

On to a heavyweight bout that the UFC had to scrap the bottom of the dumpster to put together, as 37 year old Anthony Hamilton, who is 3-5 in the UFC, takes on 27 year old Daniel “I don’t Swallow, I” Spitz. Man, if you think the UFC heavyweight division couldn’t get any shallower, you now have the privilege of witnessing a svelte, crisp, striker in Danny Spitz, take on the dangerous bag of marshmallows named Anthony Hamilton! Look out!

Spitz only has 6 pro MMA fights under his belt belt, and his debut against Mark Godbeer didn’t showcase him in a positive light. Spitz was outclassed on the feet, and ended up gasing less than halfway through the 2nd round. He’s got a solid ground game, but I he won’t be able to get Hamilton to the ground due to a size mismatch, so this could be a long night for Spitz.

With that being said, do you have confidence in rostering Anthony Hamilton, and his 37 year old frame? I don’t. This is another fight that has too many question marks, significant downside, and limited upside. Not an ideal fight to target. I could see Hamilton, who’s a -200 favorite with an $8,800 DK salary, connecting a few heavy strikes, dropping Spitz, and finishing it with more strikes as he stands over the former D-1 offensive linemen and gets pulled off by the ref. I could also see Spitz landing a heavy shot that flash KO’s Hamilton as well, as his chin is very questionable, and could be a DFS’ers best friend!

In short, I could see Hamilton winning this one inside the distance with some heavy shots, but I could also see Spitz winning this one due to Hamilton’s notoriously weak chin. Most likely, I foresee gas tanks being an issue here. Both guys have shown an ability to gas in the 1st half of the fight, and if this becomes a clinch/grappling/fence leaning fight, then I think the likelihood of a slow-paced affair with little output that scores few DK points is better than this one stopping before the final bell with someone’s hand raised. Another one I’ll be fading, but if you’re looking for a contrarian GPP play, then consider Spitz, as he’s only $7,400, and will be very low owned.

PICK:                                                  Hamilton, Decision, Unanimous                

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Spitz (4/10): Contrarian GPP play - that’s it.

Snapshot:

Fight number 4 has 27 year old Tony Martin, who’s 4-3 in the UFC and on a 4 fight win streak, taking on 28 year old Canadian, Olivier Aubin-Mercier. This one is basically a coin flip, with Martin a +108 underdog with an attractive $7,800 price tag, and on the comeback, OAM is a -131 favorite with an $8,400 DK salary. OAM is 5-2 in the UFC and is coming of a very impressive win over Drew Dober in where his striking looked better than it ever has in the UFC cage. He used his jab very effectively, and outstruke Dober at his own game, as OAM is mostly known for his slick Judo skills, and heavy top game that grinds his opponents into pulp.

Tony Martin trains with Mark Dellagrotte at Sityodtong in Boston with the likes of Rob Font, and some of the best talent in New England. Early on in his UFC career Martin was known for his wrestling, and solid submission game, but as he’s spent more time in the Octagon, and has had more opportunities to train with a very good camp, his striking has improved drastically. He’s very big for a 155’er, standing 6’1”, and he’s learning how to use his long striking game to his advantage - softening up his opponents on the feet before reverting back his strength on the ground.

This is a very good matchup, and could be a darkhorse for Fight of the Night. Martin’s improved cardio should be able to keep up with OAM’s gas tank, and I think both fighters will end up delivering damage to the other, but it’s going to come down to who’s got the better Fight IQ, and who can survive the deep waters best, as I think this one goes to a decision, and it will be a very close one at that.

Martin’s solid wrestling game should allow him to keep Aubin-Mercier from taking the fight to the ground, and if OAM does find Martin off-balance, and a scramble ensuing, he most likely will find himself in advantageous positions for short periods of time, before the bigger Tony Martin finds his way back to his feet. How will the judges view these scrambles? Who will they give the upper hand to? If they overweight takedowns, and grappling positions, then I think you see OAM win a decision victory. If the judges value striking, and the damage inflicted (which they should), then Martin will most likely see his hand raised at the end of the fight.

This is an incredible tough fight to call, and will be a very close decision, maybe even a split decision. This doesn’t mean I’m going to shy away from this fight though, as I think one of these guys has some value in DK. Looking at this fight, their styles, and how it will most likely go down inside the cage, I really think these guys are as close to even as possible. With that being said, I think Martin poses some value with his $7,800 DK price tag. There will be enough output on the feet, and I think a good mix of takedowns, advances, reversals, and more striking, that this has the potential to score nicely, but placing a bet on the victor will be more difficult. Whichever direction you head, tread lightly, as this one could go either way, but will have a high likelihood of scoring a good amount in DK!

PICK:                                                  Martin, Decision, Split

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Martin (6.5/10): I like Martin’s ability to keep this one standing, and using his reach to out point OAM. If it goes to the ground, Martin will be able to get back to his feet, meaning more striking, and possibly advances and reversals aiding the DK

scorecard.

Main Card

Snapshot:

This card has had so many shake-ups, and this fight almost had to be scrapped as well, as Zu Anyanwu had to step up in a weeks notice, replacing Dmitry Sosnovskiy due to injury. It’s a good thing Ledet was able to secure a replacement, because I really like him in all formats. Ledet is 8-0 in his pro career, and 2-0 in the UFC, earning 2 impressive wins over the past year, defeating Chase Sherman and Mark Godbeer.

Ledet is a -420 favorite with a $9,100 DK salary, and is a big favorite against short notice regional vet, Zu Anyanwu who comes in as a +375 dog with a $7,100 salary. Ledet is a former pro boxer, and was a collegiate basketball player before that. Ledet has won 4 of his 8 contests by submission, but it’s his hands that have impressed me the most. He has a boxing-like approach to throwing hands, and they land quick, and they land heavy! He has some of the best hands in the heavyweight division, and I think we’ll see him outclass Zu on the feet, although there will be a total of zero kicks thrown by Ledet - he’s just bringing hands Zu!

Ledet will have his way out boxing Zu, which eventually will find Zu looking for a takedown and bringing the fight to the ground, where Ledet will have an advantage as well. Ledet is a much better fighter in every facet than Zu, and he’s got an impressive gas tank to boot! I really like Justin Ledet, and I think we’ll see him breaking into the Top 10 by the end of 2018. Mark my words!

You’ll have to pay for Ledet, but I think he’s worth the investment. I am confident that he’ll get the stoppage, and will have 100+ points. With how this card shakes out, there aren’t many “guarantees” to score you 75+ points, so we need to take it where we can get it. My algorithms have Ledet as the #1 fighter on the card when it comes to potential scoring, and I agree with the robot.

PICK:                                                  Ledet, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Ledet (8.5/10): You have to pay for it, but he’s worth the price, as there aren’t many guarantees like Ledet on the card.

GPP:                                                   Ledet (9/10): He’s pricey, but he’s got a very high upside, and his opponent is making his UFC debut on short notice - a great combo! If you are looking for a contrarian play, throw Zu in a LU!

Snapshot:

We’ll keep this one quick. Kamaru Usman (-750, $9,200) is the biggest favorite on the card, and has an incredible offensive wrestling game. There’s not much to critique here, as it will most likely be a bloodbath, and most likely will see Usman winning another dominant decision, scoring 90+ points for his owners. There is also some salary value with Usman too, as he ranks 3rd in DK salary, but is the highest betting odds on the card. It’s only 2 ranks of value, but we’ll take it.

I’ll have Usman in many Cash lineups, as he is pretty much a guarantee for a victory, and should score you 85-110 points. The $9,100 salary really isn’t that bad considering what you are going to get from him. There’s a very good chance that he’ll earn 10x his salary, and there aren’t many like him on the card this weekend, so let’s get it while we can.

PICK:                                                  Usman, Decision, Unanimous        

Cash Game:                                       Usman (10/10): Guaranteed win, high ceiling, high floor, and not priced too bad.

GPP:                                                   Usman (9/10): For the reasons mentioned above. Enjoy the beating he delivers.

Snapshot:

Yes, Usman is a stud wrestler, and I think he’ll be one of the top DK scorers because of this. Cutt from the same cloth, Gregor Gillespie is a former D-1 National Champion, and 4 time NCAA D-1 All-American! In short, Gillespie is a man amongst boys when it goes to the ground! This is exactly where he’ll plan to take it against Jason Gonzalez too, as Gonzalez is 6’2”, and has a very good Muay Thai game that is overseen by the very capable Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA in California.

Gillespie has heavy hands, and I’m sure he’ll want to test himself by banging with Gonzalez, but he should have a very good Fight IQ, as most wrestlers have a dedicated, measured approach to going about the execution of a gameplan, and this should translate into a ground battle that has Gillespie ground-N-pounding Gonzalez before getting the ref to step in, and taking home a TKO victory, his 3rd in as many tries in the UFC.

Gillespie’s style lines up nicely with the DraftKings scoring system, as fighters who effectively implement a heavy offensive wrestling game will score the most points on average. Gillespie constantly looks to advance position while on the ground in top position, and the newish scoring system rewards active ground fighters who advance position, and land strikes when not advancing. Sounds like Gillespie’s game, and I think he’ll be a top 3 scorer on the night. You’ll have to pay for him though, as he a $9,400 price tag! All my numbers point to Gillespie as being a lock to win who has the potential to score 120+ points, and more than that, you may be witnessing the next generation of elite fighters in the lightweight division.

PICK:                                                  Gillespie, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:                                       Gillespie (9.5/10): Automatic victory, high ceiling and floor, awesome offensive output, and a track record of winning! I would consider stacking this fight in order to roster Gillespie and his 120+ points.

GPP:                                                   Gillespie (9/10): I like him in all formats, but you’ll have to pay for him.

Snapshot:

39 year old Hector Lombard brings his 3 fight losing streak into this battle against the road tested, Anthony Smith, who has 38 pro MMA fights and is only 29 years old! Some guys run marathons, some guys drinks beers, others read books - Anthony Smith cracks skulls, and he’s been doing it his entire adult life. This is a very interesting fight, as it seemed like just a few years ago that Hector Lombard was a title contender, but he hasn’t been a top level fighter ever since a devastating loss to Neil Magny where he took 114 unanswered blows to the head. Is that a cause? Maybe, or maybe it’s old man time taking his toll on the human body.

Lombard opened as a -165 favorite, but was quickly bet down to a pick ‘em, where it currently sits. Lombard has very heavy hands, but his biggest advantage in this matchup has to be his wrestling and ground game. I don’t think Smith will be able to prevent Lombard from taking him down, and I don’t have much confidence in Smith getting back to his feet when Lombard does get him down. This could be a high scoring affair for Lombard if he can successfully have his way with Smith if and when they clinch he can drag the fight to the ground.

Lombard isn’t a lock by any means though, and I am not convinced that he will come out on the winning end of this fight. Lombard has a historically poor gas tank, and often has found himself exhausted from over throwing punches in the 1st round. Can Lombard last 3 full rounds, and if so, will he be able to win rounds 2 and 3 since he’ll most likely win round 1 with the way he typically starts? Not an easy question to answer, but one you should consider before rostering Lombard.

I think Lombard has the most likely path to victory with his superior wrestling and ground game, and this pushes me in his direction. There aren’t many mid-tier fighters, so you’ll most likely have to roster Lombard, Smith, Aubin-Mercier, or Martin in order to complete your rosters (or multiple of those 4 fighters). Lombard gives you a legitimate mid-tier option that has a good chance of winning, and could rack up 100+ points with a quick 1st round victory, and we know how quickly Lombard likes to start! If he doesn’t end it within the 1st round, you might as well turn away from the TV, because it won’t be pretty.

PICK:                                                  Lombard, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Lombard (7/10): Don’t love him here, but you’ll most likely need a mid-tier fighter or two, and there aren’t many on the card this weekend, and Lombard might be the best option. Enjoy knawing your fingers to the bone during the fight!

GPP:                                                   Lombard (6.5/10): Similar story here - you’ll need a mid-tier fighter or two to complete your roster. Unfortunately, Lombard may be our best option (I also like Martin).

                                                            Smith (5.5/10): I’ll have some exposure to Smith in GPP’s as well, but definitely more on Lombard than Smith.

Snapshot:

Hurricane Irma’s wrath was felt in this matchup, as Mike Perry’s initial opponent, Thiago Alves, got stranded in South Florida in the wake of Irma, and could not get a flight to Pittsburgh in time for the event. Alex Reyes, brother of UFC fighter, Dominick Reyes, took this fight on 4 days notice, and has only fought once (3 weeks ago) in the last 2 years. Perry, on the other hand, has been on a tear since entering the UFC, going 3-1 with 3 knockouts!

Perry throws heavy, heavy strikes, often connects with surprising accuracy considering how hard he throws. Perry is an ok wrestler, and makes up for his shortcomings by relying on his athleticism, stuffing takedown attempts, and making his foes pay when they step into the pocket with Platinum Perry!

Reyes is a big underdog at +350, while Perry comes in at -485, and was able to retain his initial pricing when his opponenet was Thiago Alves - $8,500. Now for you that have been playing MMA DFS long enough, you should be well aware of the fact that a -485 favorite should be priced MUCH, MUCH higher than Perry’s current $8,500 salary. More often than not, a -485 line would put a fighter somewhere around $9,300 - $9,500! There is a -6 rank value on Perry - by for the biggest on the card, and one that we can’t overlook. I hate following the lemmings and the square money, but Perry is priced so low, and has such a high upside, that you really cannot ignore it. I may have a few lineups where I have Reyes, just because of the high ownership that Perry will have, but I know that Perry has a 97% chance of victory, and most likely will leave Reyes (A) sleeping on the canvas, or (B) picking up his teeth of the canvas, and from the front row.

PICK:                                                  Perry, KO, 1st           

Cash Game:                                       Perry (10/10): Like I said above, the late replacement threw a kink into Perry’s pricing, exposing some serious value! We need to take advantage of it, as the likelihood of victory is very high. Perry will score 100+.

GPP:                                                   Perry (9/10): The only reason he isn’t getting a 10/10 here is due to how highly he will be owned in all GPP’s. I bet he’ll be 65%+ owned in GPP’s….maybe even higher!

Reyes (6/10): I may have a few LU’s with Reyes included, as the mass amounts of people who will roster Perry are presenting value that we can’t ignore, although we are most likely throwing our money down the toilet.  

Snapshot:

And on to the main event of the evening! I’ve been working hard at developing some new tools, algorithms, and useful data that I can incorporate into my event previews. My goal is to continue to evolve, and give all of you the best tools, and information possible in order for you to more easily make decisions on your DFS rosters. I’ve been working on a new Tale of the Tape that is more in-depth than what I’ve always been using, and this is what I’ve come up with so far. There may be some tweaks to it before it’s fully released, but I think this is what it will look like. Let me know if there is any info, or data that you’d like to see displayed on this new beefed up Tale of the Tape. DM me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, or on email at TJScottMMA@Gmail.com.

Now onto the final fight of the evening. Here’s another big line fight, with Luke Rockhold coming in at a -525 favorite, and is priced at $9,300, while David Branch comes in as a +450 dog with a $6,900 salary. Rockhold hasn’t fought since June of 2016 when he was KO’ed by Michael Bisping. Rockhold has had time to think about his game, refine his technique, and hand pick who his comeback fight would be. Rockhold has top level striking, and has some of the most vicious kicks in the sport. He has the hunger to get back on top since he has now had a taste of the belt, and wants nothing else but to be back there! He has one of the best camps in the game in AKA. He has a very good Fight IQ, and he has the physical attributes to win the belt again, and hold onto it for some time to come!

Let’s get it out there; Rockhold will most likely win this fight, but the real question is; how will he win this fight? He is in the same neighborhood pricewise as Perry, Gillespie, and Ledet, so it boils down to how would you rank these 4 fighters, and who’d you rather roster. You must analyze each fighters opponent, the style of fight that is most likely to take place, and how that translates within the DK scoring system. With that being said, out of these 4 fighters, I think that Rockhold probably has the highest likelihood of going the distance. David Branch is a very good defensive fighter, and has many decisions to his name, so I could see him being difficult to hit, and Rockhold being a little rusty from his time away from the cage, thus, pushing their fight to a decision. For that reason I am not going to blindly roster Rockhold and his 5 round affair. I will definitely have some shares of him, but I’ll probably have more Perry, Gillespie, and Ledet, than I do Rockhold. I like ‘em all a lot, but you can’t roster them all, so mix and match, and do the best you can. The most important part of your roster are the Live Dogs that you need to find and get into your LU’s. Go get ‘em!

PICK:                                                  Rockhold, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Rockhold (7/10): He has been KO’ed, and Branch is no slouch. I like other high priced fighters better.

GPP:                                                   Rockhold (7.5/10): I’m hoping Rockhold comes out with something to prove, and wants to show everyone that he is still the best in the world! If he does that, then he’ll end the fight within the 1st 2 rounds, and will score 100+ points. You want him on your roster if that happens.                        

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1

* Pivot: Also consider rostering Rockhold ($9,300), Gillespie ($9,400) for the other high-priced fighters already in LU. Hall, Martin, Lombard, & Spitz should help round out your LU’s.