If you’re a fan of sanctioned violence then boy is UFC 244 for you. The BMF title is on the line in the five-round main event clash of two iconoclasts of MMA in Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz. The card is also packed with plenty of amazing fights that offer technique, knockout prowess, and top-level grappling. There is something on this card for every fight fan. Let’s dig in and grind some lineups.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz | 8800/7400 | - | Stackability: Safe | -165/ +145 | +205/+420 | I'm confident in how this fight begins: Diaz throws volume and Masvidal counters, bloodying Diaz up. From there it's anyone's guess. Which guy has the bigger will in a test of huge wills? I lean Jorge but the discount on Diaz is tempting. That likely means ownership goes Diaz' way. It's a great stack. I don't see either guy wilting until the late rounds at earliest. |
Expensive | Kelvin Gastelum | 9200 | Darren Till | Safe | -250 | +125 | Gastelum gets no respect. Till's chin is shot and Kelvin knocks down his opponent literally every fight. Plus Gastelum can take a punch better than anyone. |
| Gregor Gillespie | 9100 | Kevin Lee | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +275 | The best wrestler in the game after Khabib. Lee is known as a wrestler as well but I don't seem him matching Gillespie's insane pace of a takedown per minute in the UFC. He doesn't lay and pray either. It's an aggressive ground game on the mat as well looking for the finish. | |
| Johnny Walker | 9000 | Corey Anderson | Moderate | -150 | -125 | Walker has decided to just let his hands (and kicks and knees) go right out of the gate and the results have been stunningly fast KOs. Anderson has been dropped plenty so another quick KO is in play here. The risk is that Anderson can tire and grind him with his wrestling. | |
| Shane Burgos | 9300 | Makwan Amirkhani | Risky | -245 | +240 | You want to play the guy that got into a slugfest with a shot Cub Swanson (and couldn't finish him)? Be my guest. Actually don't, you're a sub. Burgos is an awful price and likely won't hit value even if he pulls it out. | |
Mid-Range | Edmen Shahbazyan | 8300 | Brad Tavares | Somewhat-Safe | -160 | +180 | It feels like Edmen is getting Gastelum levels of disrespect here. People seem to be holding that he's smashed everyone he's fought in a single round outside of a decision win vs Darren Stewart against him. Tavares is a generalist and not a challenge for someone this dynamic. I will be heavy on Shahbaz. |
| Stephen Thompson | 8500 | Vicente Luque | Moderate | -120 | +570 | Thompson is happy to deploy his karate style of quick striking with intermittent power. Luque is not hard to hit. Thompson by decision is highly likely. | |
| Derrick Lewis | 8000 | Blagoy Ivanov | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +175 | It's knockout or bust for Hot Balls. He was pulling out comeback KO after KO until the well dried up. It doesn't help his DK scoring with how late they tend to come either. | |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 8700 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | -105 | Jair has immense power and Arlovski used to have chin issues. He'll have to solve Arlovski's formula of clinch fighting to win decisions. Power shots are one way to do that. | |
| Lyman Good | 8400 | Chance Rencountre | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +425 | The book on Good is big power and aggression that leaves him open to wrestling. Not a great considering Rencountre is all wrestling. If he stuffs it Recountre is in trouble on the feet, though. | |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 8600 | Julio Arce | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +410 | Dawodu has a slight edge in the striking in a fight that's a kickboxing match. That's not DK gold but could be a cash play. | |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 8200 | Derrick Lewis | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +320 | Ivanov has a knack for winning ugly fights that go the distance. He's likely to win rounds against Lewis and will need to avoid the late haymaker barrage. | |
Pay-Downs | Makwan Amirkhani | 6900 | Shane Burgos | Moderate | +205 | +650 | Amirkhani is a great price on the back of long odds. He can't match Burgos offensive striking but can probably frustrate him with defense and wrestling. We haven't seen Burgos have to survive on the ground so a submission is live. |
| Chance Rencountre | 7800 | Lyman Good | Moderate | +100 | +325 | Recountre's recent 2-1 record looks better every week. Losing to Belal Muhamad is no big mark and beating Ismael Narduiv is more legit, too. Good had no answer for Damien Maia's submission wrestling so that's Chance's best chance. | |
| Kevin Lee | 7100 | Gregor Gillespie | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +575 | Lee was the hot up and comer not that long ago. He has a crazy reach advantage and has been training with GSP at Tristar. Is that enough to correct course as he drops back down to 155? I doubt it. There's a chance he exposes Gillespie on the feet, however. | |
| Vicente Luque | 7700 | Stephen Thompson | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +240 | Luque's stopping power keeps him in any fight. He's shown he has the will to bite down on the mouthpiece and walk through fire. That's super hard to due against the lighting fast Thompson but Anthony Pettis just managed it with a cage-catapult superman punch. | |
| Corey Anderson | 7200 | Johnny Walker | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +475 | Anderson has developed a solid formula based on wrestling and cage control. If his chin holds up he's hard to beat. That's an enormous "if" against Walker, but an early takedown could wear out the big man's gas tank. Anderson will be a popular dog play. | |
| Brad Tavares | 7900 | Edmen Shahbazyan | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +575 | A decently well-rounded wrestler boxer makes Tavares a challenge for most fighters. Top 10 talents have walked through him. We'll find out where Shahbazyan is at on Saturday. | |
| Darren Till | 7000 | Kelvin Gastelum | Risky | +210 | +560 | Till does have power and could be aided by the move up to 185 for both his durability and his output. There's also a chance Gastelum isn't fully recovered from his war with Israel Adesanya last time out. | |
| Andrei Arlovski | 7500 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Risky | +135 | +465 | Boring decisions don't pay much on DK (as Andrei tends to be in) but there's a chance he can win ITD if he gets Jair down and controls him on the mat. |
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Totals
Favorite Bets: Shahbazyan -155, Gillespie -160, Amirkhani +205
Favorite Props: Thompson via DEC +125, Rencountre via SUB +460, Gastelum via KO +175
Live Dogs: Diaz, Lewis, Anderson, Rencountre, Amirkhani, Lee, Luque
Stats & Picks
| Jorge Masvidal | vs | Nate Diaz |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 34-13-0 | Record | Record: 21-11-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (55%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | vs | Darren Till |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 16-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-2-1 |
| 6 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (59%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Stephen Thompson | vs | Vicente Luque |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 14-4-1 | Record | Record: 17-6-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Derrick Lewis | vs | Blagoy Ivanov |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 21-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 18 KO/TKO (86%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kevin Lee | vs | Gregor Gillespie |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (12%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Corey Anderson | vs | Johnny Walker |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 14 KO/TKO (82%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Shane Burgos | vs | Makwan Amirkhani |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (7%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
| -245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Brad Tavares | vs | Edmen Shahbazyan |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Andrei Arlovski | vs | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 28-18-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (61%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (88%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Jennifer Maia |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (24%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Lyman Good | vs | Chance Rencountre |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 20-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Julio Arce | vs | Hakeem Dawodu |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |