2017 MMA DFS: UFC Fight Night 106

UFC Fight Night 106

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Fortaleza, Brazil

For MMA DFS games, you have $50,000 to spend on 6 fighters.

Let's start with a look at the scoring system on Draft Kings:

Scoring

There are 5 categories and I'll break down each one and their meaning.

• Significant Strikes (SS) are worth .5 points
  • Significant strikes are any distance strike, clinch, or ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers
• Advance (ADVC) 3 points
  • Advances include
    • to half guard
    • to side control
    • to mount
    • to back control
• Reversal or Sweeps (REV) 5 points
• Knockdown (KD) 10 points

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

• 1^st round win (1rW) 90 points
• 2^nd round win (2rW) 70 points
• 3^rd round win (3rW) 45 points
• 4^th round win (4rW) 40 points
• 5^th round win (5rW) 40 points
• Decision win (WBD) 30 points

Please note that the fight card is subject to change the day before or day of the fight for any number of circumstances.

The main event for the evening is Vitor Belfort (BRA) vs Kelvin Gastelum (USA) in the middleweight division at 185 pounds. The card itself has a great lineup to it, including a rematch between Alex Oliveria vs Tim Means who met last December and settled for a controversial No Contest. All in all there are 12 fights in total for the night and here’s my take on each one.

Garreth McLellan (South Africa) vs Paulo Borrachinha (Brazil) in the Middleweight division (185)

Garreth holds a MMA record of 13-5 and his 13 wins came via three KO/TKO, nine submissions and one decision. He has fought in four UFC events and currently has a two-fight losing streak.

Paulo is 8-0 and this is his debut with UFC. His eight wins have come from seven KO/TKO and one submission.

I give the advantage to Paulo for being in his home country.

Rony “Jason” Bezerra (Brazil) vs Jeremy Kennedy (Canada) in the Featherweight division. (145)

Rony is 15-6. He is 0-2-1 in his last three fights. The No Contest was overruled. His 14 wins come via five KO/TKO, eight submissions and one decision.

Jeremy Kennedy is a perfect 9-0 with three KO/TKO, two submissions and four decisions.

Despite this being in Brazil, I see Kennedy continuing his winning ways.

Preliminary Fights

Michael Prazeres (Brazil) vs Joshua Burkman (USA) in the Lightweight division (155)

Josh Burkman is a UFC veteran that dates back all the way to Ultimate Fighter Season 2. He comes in with a record of 28-14 with wins via seven KO/TKO, 10 submissions, and 11 decisions. His last two fights wound up being losses by way of a split decision to Zak Ottow and a unanimous decision to Paul Felder. He has notable wins against Melvin Guillard and Jon Fitch

Michael Prazeres brings with him a three-fight win streak with a record of 21-2. He had had seven fights in the UFC. His wins come via one KO/TKO, eight submissions, and 12 decisions.

Despite Burkman being a veteran, I give this fight to the Brazilian.

Rani Yahya (Brazil) vs Joe Soto (USA) in the Bantamweight division. (135)

Joe has a record of 17-5 and has a two-fight win streak. His 17 wins come via five KO/TKO, 10 submissions and two decisions. His notable fight was a loss to TJ Dillishaw

Rani is a UFC veteran and is coming in with an impressive four-fight win streak. His record is 23-8 with his wins coming via 17 submissions and six decisions.

Rani comes out with another win by way of submission in this fight.

Sergio Moraes (Brazil) vs Davi Ramos in the Welterweight division. (170)

Sergio's last three fights, he is 2-0-1. He has a record of 11-3-1 with one KO/TKO, seven submissions, and three decisions.

Davi is unknown. Although, I would look for him to take the fight to the ground and work for submissions. He is a 2015 Abu Dabi Combat Club (ADCC) Champion. Anyone that follows jiu jitsu and the tournament scene knows, this is one of the highest tournaments out there.

I would give the edge to Sergio in this contest.

Franscisco Trinaldo (Brazil) vs Kevin Lee (USA)in the Lightweight division. (155)

This fight is the last fight on the prelims and could easily be on any main card show.

Francisco is coming in with an impressive seven-fight win streak. He brings a record of 21-4 with seven KO/TKO, five submissions, and nine decisions. His last three wins were over some tough guys being Yancy Mederios, Ross Pearson, and Paul Felder. His fight with Felder was a doctor stoppage in the third round due to elbows which, required several stitches.

Kevin Lee is on a three-fight win streak with a record of 14-2. His wins came by way of one KO/TKO, six submissions, and seven decisions.

Francisco is the favorite in this match. I see another KO/TKO coming out of this one.

Main Card

Alex Oliveria (Brazil) vs Tim Means (USA) in the Welterweight division. (170)

This fight is a rematch form UFC 207 back in December 30, 2016. This fight was ruled a No Contest when Means kneed Oliveria when, Oliveria appeared to be down. The ending to the fight was very controversial and almost immediately afterward, a rematch was set up.

Means comes in with a 26-7-1 record with 18 KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decisions.

Oliveria comes in at 15-3-1 with 10 KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decisions.

This is going to be an explosive bout. I feel that Oliveria wants some revenge, and why not in a better place then his home country. I think Oliveria pulls out a W in this one.

Bethe Correia (Brazil) vs Marion Reneau (USA) in the Bantamweight divison. (135)

Bethe comes in with a 10-2 record. With her two losses coming from a split-decision against Raquel Pennington and a KO from Rhonda Rousey. She has wins over Shayna Baszler and Jessamyn Duke.  She has two wins by KO/TKO and eight submission wins

Marion has a record of 7-3 with wins via four KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision. She has a notable win over Jessica Andrade.

Bethe will come out on top in this bout. She is looking to climb back up and contend for the title once again.

Jussier Formiga (Brazil) vs Ray Borg (USA) in the Flyweight Division. (125)

At 19-4, Formiga has notable wins over Zach Makovsky and Scott Jorgenson. His wins came via eight submissions and 11 decisions.

At 10-2 Borg his wins came via one KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decisions.

I see this fight being dominated on the ground by Formiga, who comes out with another submission victory.

Edson Barboza (Brazil) vs Beneil Dariush (Iran) in the Lightweight division. (155)

Barboza comes in with a two-fight win streak with decisions over Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. He has a record of 18-4 with his 18 wins came via 10 KO/TKO, one submission and seven decisions.

Beneil also has a two-fight win streak. He brings a record of 14-2 with wins via three KO/TKO, six submissions, and five decisions. He has notable wins over Michael Johnson, Daron Cruckshank, and Charlie Brenneman.

I see Beneil with an upset over Barboza.

Co-Main Event

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (Brazil) vs Gian Vilante (USA) in the Light Heavy weight division. (205)

Rua is a legend in the sport. He comes in with a record of 24-10. His wins came via 19 KO/TKO, one submission, and four decisions. Don't let his lone submission win fool you. He is just as dangerous on the ground, as he is standing. He has notable wins over Rampage Jackson, Alistar Overeem, Antonio Noguiera, Lyto Machida, and Forest Griffin. He has a two-fight win streak but, hasn't fought since May 2016

Vilante comes in with a 15-7 record. His wins came via 10 KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decisions.

Rua comes out on top in his home country.

Main Event

Vitor Belfort (Brazil) vs Kelvin Gastelum (USA) in the Middleweight division. (185)

Like Rua, Belfort is a legend in the sport. His first UFC fight was in 1997. The number nine-ranked fighter in the division, he has an impressive 25-13 record in his career. Belfort's wins came via 18 KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decisions. He has notable wins over Tank Abbot, Wanderlei Silva, Randy Couture, Rich Franklin, Dan Henderson, and current Middleweight Champion Michael Bisping. He is coming off of two very tough loses against Gegard Mousasi and Ronaldo Sousza.

Gastelum comes in with an impressive 14-2 record. I think this is a better weight class for him. He has missed weight at 170 pounds several times in the past. Gastelum is coming in with a two-fight victory streak.  His recent fight at 185 pounds saw him take out a highly-decorated Tim Kennedy which, would result in Kennedy's retirement. His other victory was against former Champ Jony Hendricks. His only two loses were split-decisions against Neil Magny and current Welterweight Champ Tyron Woodley. Gastelum is the Ultimate Fighter Season 17 winner during which he took out Uriah Hall in the finale. His wins come via five KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decisions.

This should be a great fight. In the end, I see Gastelum with the win over the veteran Belfort. Kelvin has a great take down defense percentage of 62.5. He also has a slight edge in striking with 3.99 strikes landed per minute vs Belfort's 1.54. Belfort will rely on his power for a KO but Belfort needs to go out of his comfort zone, push the pace and make Gastelum work. Combinations will be key if Belfort wants to win. I see this fight more standing than on the ground.

Here is my Draft Kings lineup for this event:

*that leaves you with $400 left