DFS PLAYBOOK PRO - FREE PREVIEW - 2017 MMA DFS: UFC 210

After a rare three-week break from competition, the UFC is back with it’s 210th pay-per view installment this Saturday night from Buffalo, New York. New York was the last state in the country to finally regulate the sport of Mixed Martial Arts, and thus, paved a way for the UFC to bring its traveling circus of blood and battery to the masses in the most populated state in the northeast. A three-week break is rate these days when it comes to UFC events, but many fans have been complaining about the risk of watering down the sport when there is almost one UFC event every week of the year. Personally, I kind of like the downtime. As they say, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and I can attest, I can’t wait for the fists and feet to fly this Saturday night!

With the UFC now a mainstay on DraftKings, and MMA being the fastest growing sport in the world, it only made sense for us to get involved, and start giving our paying members the support and insight that they deserve when it comes to a DFS sport. The time and effort that are put into the analysis of these fight cards is extremely time-consuming and laborious, but the results should speak for themselves, and that’s the least we can do for our members who spend their hard earned cash on our membership packages.

Without further ado, let’s get into the fights, and give you some information to arm yourself with before you start putting together your DraftKing’s lineups for this Saturday night’s card! Moving forward you will see the same format for each event. I’ll do a brief review of the undercard, and keep it at a very high level, and then I’ll dig deeper into the main card matchups. After the preview article is posted (typically Wednesday or Thursday before a Saturday event) I will be hanging around in the FantasyAlarm.com forums, answering questions about the card, giving advice when necessary, and keeping you abreast of any fight card changes that may impact your lineups in DFS. I’ll also be Tweeting throughout the fight week, and alerting my followers of any changes to my optimal lineups, and other snippets of information that will be useful to you. I won’t be giving away much free info through Twitter, as this is reserved for our paying customers, and this is where the forum will play a big role! Regardless, please follow me on Twitter → @TJ_Scott_MMA.

Undercard

Magomed Bibulatov is making his UFC debut, and he enters the Ocatagon as one of the most promising up and comers in the FLyweight division. He hails from Chechnya, and has a prototypical Eastern European game with solid wrestling, and brut strength to overpower just about anyone in his division. He is unique from most Eastern European fighters where he has a pretty flashy striking game that he displays, with plenty of spinning back-kicks and back-fists. Lausa had a nice start to his UFC career with a decision win back in November. Unfortunately, Lausa has drawn a beast for his 2nd match in Bibulatov, and the Vegas odds and DraftKings salary both reflect this. Bibulatov will rack up some points for you in your lineups, but you’ll have to pay for him, and the risk of a lowering scoring affair via a decision is too high to be dropping $9,500 on the highest priced fighter on the card.

PICK: Bibulatov, Decision

Cash Game:  Bibulatov isn’t a bad play here, as he’s a solid bet to get you at least 70 points without much risk of losing.

GPP: Avoid both here. Lausa doesn’t have a shot, and Bibulatov is too high priced with a somewhat low ceiling for the highest priced fighter on the card at $9,500.

This is an interesting matchup, and one where I see some value from a DK perspective. Aldana is a boxer at heart, and somewhat one dimensional when it comes to her offensive game sticking with her hands as her prominent weapon. Chookagian is more of a well-rounded fighter, mixing in kicks, knees, and a ground game, but she does not have the power and accuracy in her hands like Aldana does. When I look at the salaries from a DK perspective I definitely see some value in Aldana. She is coming in with a $7,500 salary compared to Chookagian’s $8,700 salary, which is very surprising, as I would have expected these two to have similar salaries, and be a pick ‘em from a Vegas perspective. Aldana has solid volume in her striking game, and the $7,500 is a nice salary for Cash games, and even some GPP lineups.

PICK: Aldana, Decision

Cash Game:  Aldana (9/10): really like this play here! Being a thrifty shopper, this is a great deal here! I think we’re getting Aldana for $1k cheaper than she should be. Lock her up!

GPP: Aldana (7/10): Not a bad play here, as Aldana’s volume is impressive, and her salary is awesome!

Des Green is making his UFC debut on Saturday, and he’s coming in as a wrestler looking to grind this one out on the ground. Emmett is a Team Alpha Male product that has a solid pedigree, and a more well-rounded game than Green. I have a feeling that this fight will go the distance, and the way that Green likes to grind out fights (I’ve seen at least 5 of his fights live, cageside), I don’t foresee this one being a big point scorer for either fighter. If you don’t think this one will go the distance, then check out both fighters’ percentage of fights that go to a decision - ouch! I may consider Green in a few GPP lineups, as he does have an outside chance at winning, and he’s got a great salary and will be very low-owned.

PICK: Emmet, Decision

Cash Game:  Avoid both fighters - ceiling is low for both

GPP: Green (6/10): I see some value in Des due to his low ownership, potential for winning, and low salary

Former D-1 wrestling National Champion, and 4 time All-American, Gregor Gillespie, will take on the gritty, grinding Andrew Holbrook. Gillespie is an undefeated MMA fighter who has some of the best wrestling in the division. He is legit when it comes to wrestling, and I think this is what will allow him to prevail in this fight versus Andrew Holbrook, who comes in with a 2-1 record in the UFC, but one of those wins is a highly controversial decision victory, so maybe an asterik is deserved there (he should be 1-2 in the UFC). Gillespie’s striking isn’t much to be desired, and his striking defense is not great, but Holbrook doesn’t have much in his hands to speak of, so I don’t think this is a big concern for Gillespie. This is an almost perfect matchup for Gillespie to work his ground game, and grind out a decision victory, or possibly a submission victory.

I really like Gillespie here, and his salary isn’t outrages, it’s actually a little lower than I expected at $8,600. I like Gillespie in all formats, and will definitely be targeting him come Saturday. With the new pricing format that DraftKings implemented for their MMA games, it greatly increased the value of wrestlers who can get the fights to the ground with takedowns. I foresee Gillespie scoring a solid amount of points by taking Holbrook to the ground.

PICK: Gillespie, Decision

Cash Game: Gillespie (8/10): his takedowns will dictate the fight, and they will also rack up points on your DK scorecards!

GPP: Gillespie (7/10): he’ll be highly owned, so not an “elite” GPP play, but a solid play regardless.

This is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and I don’t see this one being a very relevant fight when it comes to cash games, but there may be some value when it comes to Cummins in GPP’s. Blachowicz is the striker in this matchup, but he doesn’t throw with a ton of volume or power. Cummins has no chin, and has been KO’ed 4 times in the UFC, so Blachowicz could easily connect and knock Cummins out, but it’s a big question mark. Too big of a question mark to spend the cash and have the confidence. I’ll be avoiding this one for the most part, but I may have some exposure to Cummins in GPP’s just because his ownership level should be pretty low due to the previous KO’s. Cummins should win this one by grinding it out on the mat, but Jan could very easily catch Cummins on the way in and end the fight quickly due to the porous chin of Cummins. Cummins averages almost 7 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is best on the card, and should lead him to victory.

PICK:  Cummins, Decision

Cash Game:  Avoid both - too many question marks here.

GPP: Cummins (5.5/10): I’ll have some exposure here due to Cummins low ownership.

The undefeated Shane Burgos takes on the tough as nails New Englander, Charles Rosa, and it’s a fight where I see a live dog in Rosa. The biggest glaring weakness in Burgos’ game is the fact that he really has not tested himself when it comes to the level of competition that he has faced over his 8 fight professional career. Rosa has fought tough fights up through the regional scene, and even into the UFC, taking phenom Yair Rodriguez to a split decision in which Rosa lost. With that being said, I think that Rosa can get Burgos into some uncomfortable positions that he probably never has been in during a fight in his professional career. Rosa is tough, well-coached (ATT), has the desire and drive to succeed, and I think will be the big underdog who comes out on top at this weekend’s UFC event.

I like Rosa in both formats due to my bold call, but I don’t foresee him be a top point getter on the card, as his pace is much more measured and strategic, leading me to believe that he either wins by decision without a ton of striking volume, or by submission in the 2nd or 3rd round. If you’re a betting man, grab Rosa, who is around a +200 dog.

PICK:  Rosa, Submission, 2nd

Cash Game:  Rosa (7/10): somewhat of a cash game risk, but his low salary will allow you to own some top end talent.

GPP: Rosa (8/10): Rosa’s talent, combined with his low salary, and low ownership is making him a solid GPP target for me, and I’ll definitely have some exposure to him in GPP’s this weekend.

My numbers are telling me that Usman is a solid play, especially in cash games. Usman is a very good wrestler with some improved striking skills. Usman averages over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and this is a solid path to racking up points while on his way to a decision victory. I wouldn’t completely rule out Strickland, but Usman definitely has the wrestling pedigree to control where this fight takes place, and that will mostly be on the mat with Usman smothering him from top position. You’ll have to deal with Usman’s $9,200 salary, but you should be able to sneak him into your cash lineups if you are rostering Rosa or Aldana.

PICK:  Usman, Decision

Cash Game:  Usman (9/10): takedowns, position advancement, and some occasional strikes will pave the way to a 100+ point scoring night for Usman.

GPP: Usman (4/10): not a huge GPP fan here due to salary and ownership level.

Strickland (5.5/10): I like his salary, and low ownership, so I’ll have some minor exposure here.

Myles Jury is making his return to MMA competition after a year and a half off, so ring rust could be an issue here. Jury definitely is the better fighter, and should be able to put away de la Torre, but there are too many question marks that come with a year and a half long absence, and a salary of $9,400. I can see a spot on a cash game lineup or two, but I would not say that he is an upper-echelon fighter on this card, and when you’re dealing with the 2nd highest salary on the card, even more doubt creeps into my head. Jury should be able to put de la Torre away within the distance, but I just don’t see much value in him in GPP’s, and a slight amount of value in cash games. Proceed with caution.

PICK:  Jury, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Jury (6/10): I see a path to victory, but there are doubts.

GPP: Nah, nothing to see here.

Main Card

Will Brooks is attempting to get back on track, and replicate the success he had in Bellator before he made the leap over to the UFC. Brooks’ style is a methodical, prodding pace that is designed for decision victories. I don’t foresee Brooks racking up a ton of points here due to his typical pace that he applies to his trade, but I do see some value in Oliveira due to his knack for submissions, and his price tag. Oliveira has been known to quit in fights when he has been hit with aggressive strikes from his foe, but Brooks does not bring this type of striking game to this matchup. If Brooks wants to go to the ground, then I think Oliveira will be happy to go there, as he is often looking to lock up a choke to find the end of the fight. 

PICK:  Brooks, Decision

Cash Game: Not liking either here for cash games. Too many variables in play.

GPP: Brooks - avoid

Oliveira (7/10): If Oliveira is going to win this one, it will be within the distance, and most likely via submission. His ownership should be low due to his previous losses, but he’ll have his hands full with Will Brooks.

The 2nd fight on the main card pits two aging veterans of the sport against each, but both still have the skill level to compete at the sport’s top level in the Welterweight division. Both fighters are durable, and have become much more strategic in their approach as they have aged as fighters. Both fighters deliver a lot of leg kicks, and Cote will look to keep this at distance, and win via leg kicks and his above average jab. I’m not loving either of these guys in either format (cash or GPP). There just isn’t enough upside to roster them for GPP’s, and there are too many question marks around the actual victor of the fight to roster either of them in Cash games. I’d avoid if I were you.

PICK: Cote, Decisions

Cash Game:  Neither

GPP: Neither

Snapshot: 

Cynthia Calvillo is making her 2nd appearance in the Octagon this weekend, and she is taking on fellow American, Pearl Gonzalez in this 115 pound scrap. Calvillo has some solid striking, and she always finds herself in an advantageous position at the end of most scrambles, inflicting additional damage through strikes as these scrambles play out. I really like Calvillo in all formats this weekend. My numbers have Calvillo in the top 5 in terms of potential DraftKings points for the event, and the combination of her strengths, and her opponent’s weaknesses play out in a way that makes her very attractive in both formats. Not only is Calvillo easy on the eyes, but I also think that she’ll be easy on the DK scorecards as well!

UPDATE (4/7 4:00 PM EST): It looks as though this card has been pulled from the card due to Gonzalez having breast implants, and the New York State Athletic COmmission does not allow fighters to compete if they have had breast implants. This is not a joke, but is somewhat funny. How could they have waited so long to figure this out! I’ll need to retweak my lineups due to this. Update optimals to come!

UPDATE (4/7 6:00 PM EST): The fight is back on! The NYSAC came to their senses, consulted with a few doctors, and made the determination that there was no danger to either fighter due to the fake boobies. Boobs are legit, and fights on!!

PICK: Calvillo, Submission, 2nd

Cash Game:  Calvillo (8/10): solid cash play, as I think she is almost a guarantee to win, and her salary is palatable.

GPP: Calvillo (7.5/10): Her salary will take up some room on your rosters, but I think her upside is well worth the risk!

Snapshot:

The co-main event of the evening is a much anticipated fight between two veterans of the sport, and one of New York’s all-time MMA greats making an appearance in his home state. Chris Weidman travels west to Buffalo from his home turf of Long Island, while Gegard Mousasi makes his 12th UFC appearance as a slight favorite in the eyes of Vegas and DraftKings. Gegard Mousasi is one of my favorite plays of the night, as I think his dynamic striking is something that will separate him from his foe, Weidman. Weidman has been on a slide as of late, losing his past 2 affairs by TKO, all while Mousasi put on a 4 fight win streak in 2016. This is an interesting tilt that pairs 2 fighters heading in opposite directions.

Weidman is a little cheaper than Mousasi ($7,900 vs. $8,300), and I think the upside of both fighters are similar, but I think when you compare both fighters’ attributes is when you truly see the advantage between the two. Mousasi has improved his wrestling over the years, and I think this helps him avoid the mat and keep the fight standing. On the feet is where I think the two combatants really differ. Mousasi is a polished, technical striker that will use his experience and raw talent to out point Weidman on the feet. The Long Islander will look to get this fight to the ground, but I think Mousasi’s 47 fight resume will allow him to use his fight IQ to his advantage, and keep this fight on the feet. I think Mousasi takes this one in a decision vicotry, but lands many significant strikes, and in the end, tallying more than 100 DK points. I like Mousasi in both formats, especially with his reasonable salary, and high-level technical striking game.

PICK: Mousasi, Decision

Cash Game:  Mousasi (8.5/10): a high probability for victory, Mousasi’s striking should allow him to rack up the points, all the while Weidman’s 2 fight skid sticks in his head as the injuries that he has accumulated over his career finally catch up with him.

GPP: Mousasi (8/10): Mousasi’s upside is high due to his technical striking game that should allow him to rack up a solid amount of points, and I don’t think his ownership level will be outlandish either.

Snapshot:

On to the main event of the evening! Anthony “Rumble” Johnson takes on Daniel Cormier in their 2nd matchup against each other (Cormier won the 1st matchup). This is a great main event, and one that has the potential to deliver some serious fireworks. Anthony Johnson has been laying out his opponents with incredible efficiency. He has some of the heaviest hands in the game, and with that, he can end a fight quickly and violently, which always leads to a potential 100+ scoring night. Rumble’s intention is to keep this fight standing, and deliver a knockout blow in the first frame.

Daniel Cormier brings his olympic level wrestling into the Octagon, and he has one desire once this fight commences: he wants to get this fight to the ground as soon as humanly possible! In my opinion, the end result of this fight will be determined within the first half of a round of battle. If Johnson can sprawl and keep this fight standing, then I think he has a very good chance to win. It is a big “IF” though. If Cormier can get this fight to the ground, then I foresee him controlling the fight until he locks up a submission within the first 3 rounds.

I really like this fight when it comes to GPP’s, and I think that you could roster both of these fighters in tournaments in order to cover your bases. I personally like Johnson in this matchup, as his momentum, and incredible power will prove to be too much for Cormier, but I wouldn’t completely write Cormier off in this one either. I may lean 75/25 towards Johnson, but I would have some exposure to Cormier when it comes to GPP’s -- keep this in the back of your mind when looking at my optimal lineup below. You should have at least one roster that pivots from Johnson with Cormier in it.

When it comes to cash games, I don’t love either of these fighters. I think there are too many question marks to make me feel comfortable in rostering either one of these guys in a cash game format.

PICK: Johnson, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Not loving either fighter, as I could see this fight going either way, which is not what you want when putting together a cash game lineup. You need a high level of confidence in a victory, and that’s not what you are getting in this matchup.

GPP: Anthony Johnson (8.5/10): I like Rumble here, as he has a very high upside with a high likelihood of Rumble winning within the first two rounds by KO.

UFC 210 is littered with very good wrestlers who have the potential to rack up a legit amount of points with DraftKings newer scoring system which rewards takedowns and positional advancements more so than it did in the past. Between Usman, Bibulatov, Cormier, Weidman, Gillespie, and Cummins, you have a gaggle of high-end wrestlers who could score 100+ points, or less than 20 points. My numbers have Anthony Johnson as a pretty big favorite when it comes to the DraftKings scoring format, but all this could be neutralized easily with a takedown, and the infamous wet blanket move that so many wrestlers have perfected over the years. You want the perfect mix of a few of these wrestlers, and some other high end potential, and I think I capture this pretty well in the optimal lineups outlined below.

I plan on tracking my results of both my GPP and Cash game optimal lineups, and see how they pan out. I have a good feeling about both these lineups below, so enjoy the scouting report, lock up your lineups, and thank me later! I look forward to catching up with you guys on the forums, and I’ll be sure to have next week’s preview ready to roll for Thursday afternoon!

Please be sure to follow me on Twitter for up to the minute news, lineup recommendations, and help with formulating your own lineups. I’ll also be posting any lineup shifts as the event grows closer through the Fantasy Alarm forums. I’ll keep an eye out for any last minute fight cancellations, and any fighters that I think will be negatively affected by the weight cut on Friday. Make sure you’re visiting the forums to stay abreast of any last minute lineup pivots due to these factors. Let’s make it rain!!

UPDATE (2:30 EST 4/7/17): Pearl Gonzalez has been pulled from the card, and her fight with Cynthia Cavillo has been scratched. Why you ask? Well, no one is injured or sick. Pearl’s breast implants are the reason! NYSAC has a dumb rule on the books that does not allow fighters with breast implants to compete over the risk of the boobies popping in the cage. No joke, they are worried about the breast implants rupturing…...this is ridiculous. How did it take so long for this to come to light? Someone dropped the ball here! Time to pivot and restructure my optimals.

Optimal Lineups

UPDATE (4/7 3:30 pm EST): Optimal lineups will be reposted this evening. Calvillo has been removed from my lineups due to her fight being scratched. Back to the drawing board! I’ll let everyone know on Twitter (@TJ_Scott_MMA), and in the forums once the lineups are tweaked. Stay tuned!

UPDATE (4/7 6:30 pm EST): The fight is back on! The boobs have been freed and given equal opportunity to the real breasts, and are allowed to compete in the Octagon on Saturday!

CASH

GPP