Mutua Madrid Open Prediction, Free Picks & Odds: Tournament Overview
The clay season shifts to altitude as the tours hit Madrid for one of the more unpredictable stops on the calendar. Played over 2,000 feet above sea level, the thinner air speeds up the court and strips away some of the usual clay-court dynamics. Kick serves don’t bite and topspin doesn’t jump as high. Defensive positioning gets punished when aggressive hitters take time away.
Madrid is still clay, but it doesn’t play like Rome or Roland Garros. Big hitters who take the ball early and control rallies with their serve thrive here, making for an interesting Mutua Madrid Open prediction. Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina have all shown that if you bring power with control, you can go deep.
Mutua Madrid Open Prediction & Tournament Overview For 2025
The two-week format smooths out some of the early chaos (top seeds get byes, and the draw usually holds a bit better than Monte Carlo). With both fields stacked and conditions favoring aggressive players, there’s real value when making a Mutua Madrid Open prediction beyond the outright chalk.
Clay form still matters, but only if a player’s game translates to these quicker conditions. It’s less about grinding and more about controlling points early. Those who adjust their court positioning and tempo to Madrid’s altitude tend to separate quickly. First-strike tennis and high first-serve win rates matter more here than at any other clay-court stop.
These are our best outright and Mutua Madrid Open free picks for 2025, based on current odds at the time of writing.
Mutua Madrid Open Free Pick & Best Bet – ATP: Alexander Zverev (+1000 at DraftKings)
The case for Zverev centers around surface fit and historical dominance in Madrid, not just current form. He’s a two-time champion here (2018 and 2021), made the final in 2022, and holds a 23–5 record in Madrid. His serve gets extra pop in the thin air, his flatter backhand penetrates the court, and the fast clay gives him just enough margin to play first-strike tennis without overpressing.
Yes, he lost his opening match in Monte Carlo—straight sets to Matteo Berrettini. That raised red flags about his readiness on clay. But Zverev responded by taking the title in Munich, defeating Ben Shelton 6–4, 7–5 in the final. It was a timely bounce-back that gives him momentum heading into Madrid, where he’s consistently dangerous.
This isn’t a Mutua Madrid Open prediction based on dominance across the swing, it’s a play on fit and familiarity. At +1000, you’re getting a number that reflects recent inconsistency without overreacting to one poor result. The ceiling is high, the track record is proven, and the timing is right.
Mutua Madrid Open Free Pick & Best Bet – WTA: Aryna Sabalenka (+300 at DraftKings)
Sabalenka’s power-first game is perfectly built for Madrid’s altitude. She’s already won the tournament twice (2021 and 2023), and came within a few points of defending her title this year—falling to Iga Swiatek in a third-set tiebreak in the 2024 final. Her serve, backhand, and pace of play all get rewarded here more than they do at slower clay stops.
She enters the week with a 19–4 career record in Madrid and has consistently handled both early-round pressure and elite-level matchups here. Most recently, she reached the final in Stuttgart, falling to Jelena Ostapenko in three sets. This was her first loss to the Latvian in five career meetings.
At +300, she’s the clear favorite and in Madrid, she’s earned it. With Swiatek’s game slightly blunted at altitude and the rest of the field offering less upside in these conditions, Sabalenka is the most logical of any Mutua Madrid Open free picks on the WTA side.
If you’re looking to avoid the public price, Elena Rybakina at +1400 offers a strong value option. She reached the semis in 2024 and nearly took out Sabalenka in a 1–6, 7–5, 7–6(5) thriller. Her flat timing and strong serve make her a real threat in Madrid, but her recent coaching change adds an element of unpredictability heading into the week. Sabalenka remains the better bet.
How To Watch The Mutua Madrid Open
Matches from the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open will stream live on Tennis Channel in the U.S., with additional coverage for the above Mutua Madrid Open prediction and more on Tennis Channel Plus, WTA TV, and ATP Tour Live TV.
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Odds & Betting Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
ATP Outrights
- Carlos Alcaraz: +220
- Novak Djokovic: +750
- Alexander Zverev: +1000
- Stefanos Tsitsipas: +1200
- Daniil Medvedev: +2000
- Casper Ruud: +1800
WTA Outrights
- Iga Swiatek: +350
- Aryna Sabalenka: +300
- Elena Rybakina: +1000
- Coco Gauff: +1400
- Qinwen Zheng: +2000
- Jelena Ostapenko: +2000
When Is The Mutua Madrid Open
The tournament runs from Tuesday, April 22 through Sunday, May 4, 2025, with the main draw beginning on April 23 for men and April 22 for women. Matches will be played at La Caja Mágica in Madrid, Spain.
Madrid is the second clay-court Masters 1000 of the season and the only one played at altitude, making it a key stop for gauging who can adapt their game ahead of Rome and Roland Garros. The unique conditions often reward a different type of contender than traditional slow-clay events.
How To Bet On Alexander Zverev at DraftKings & Get $200 In Bonuses
If you’re also banking on Zverev, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a new user bonus during the tournament.
Here’s how to claim:
- Sign up here at DraftKings
- Make a qualifying deposit ($5+)
- Bet $5+ on any Mutua Madrid Open prediction
- Receive $200 in bonus bets — win or lose
It’s that easy! And when you create a new account through us, there’s no need for a DraftKings promo code!
Player News
Jamal Murray lit up the Thunder with 25 points (9-of-19 FGs), eight rebounds, seven assists, one block, two three-pointers and five turnovers in Game 6 on Thursday.
Murray was a late addition to the injury report with an illness, but he played through it, and it didn’t prevent him from having a big night. He scored 11 points in the first quarter and had nine points in the decisive third quarter to help Denver keep its season alive. Murray has been able to step up in big moments in the playoffs throughout his career, and they’ll need another big game from him in Game 7 on Sunday to advance to the conference finals.
Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 29 points (9-of-14 FGs, 10-of-12 FTs), 14 rebounds, eight assists, two steals, one block and one three-pointers in a 119-107 win over the Thunder in Game 6 on Thursday.
Unsurprisingly, Jokic was dominant to help keep Denver’s season alive. His 44-point effort in Game 5 wasn’t enough, and while he didn’t match that scoring total in this game, he was still able to have a big night. He also finally got past the six-assist mark, which he had done three times this series without surpassing it. That means that Jokic finally got some help from his teammates. Game 7 will be on Sunday in OKC. Expect Jokic to have a monster performance.
Nuggets interim head coach David Adelman said that concern about Aaron Gordon’s hamstring is high after their Game 6 win over the Thunder on Thursday.
They’ll have two days off before Game 7 on Sunday, so hopefully that will be enough time for Gordon to recover after he tweaked his left hamstring with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. It will likely take a significant injury to keep Gordon off the floor for a Game 7, but if that happens, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther would all have to step up to help fill the void.
Christian Braun stuffed the stat sheet on Thursday with 23 points (8-of-14 FGs), 11 rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and three three-pointers in Game 6 against the Thunder.
It took the best playoff performance of Braun’s career, but Denver was able to defend homecourt and force a Game 7. Braun set a new playoff career high for points and contributed value across the board to help keep the Nuggets’ season alive. They’ll head to OKC for the final game of this series on Sunday. Braun likely won’t repeat this type of performance, but they’ll need him at his best once again.
Julian Strawther provided a boost off the bench with 15 points (4-of-8 FGs), two rebounds and three three-pointers in Game 6 against the Thunder on Thursday.
Denver has been trying to find a solution for who to play with both Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook struggling. Well, Strawther stepped up to help force a Game 7. He has only played more than 10 minutes during this postseason in blowouts, but he was able to set a new playoff career high for points in the win. Expect Strawther to continue to play a large reserve role on Sunday as Denver looks to advance to the conference finals.
Jalen Williams turned in a full line on Thursday with six points (3-of-16 FGs), seven rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and one block in Game 6 against the Nuggets.
JDub was able to contribute a well-rounded stat line, but he wasn’t able to have much success as a scorer. That has been the story for most of this series; Williams was great in Game 3 and was efficient in Game 2, though they didn’t need him to score much in that blowout win. However, between Games 1, 4, 5 and 6, Williams has shot below 40 percent from the field in each of them and below 30 percent in three of them. He needs to continue to find other ways to impact the game, which he has done, but they truly need a better scoring performance out of him in Game 7 on Sunday.