It goes without saying that fantasy baseball rankings from 2018 or 2019 look quite different than our current rankings. There are even already material variances from the rankings and MLB projections we are looking at today compared to what we were using a few months ago for our 2022 drafts. With that being said, going back a few years is pretty crazy when projecting MLB players for your fantasy baseball lineups. By no means am I going to imply that Matt Carpenter has completed a 180-degree career turnaround that has him back to the version we saw on the St. Louis Cardinals a few years ago. Still, it certainly has been an interesting few weeks for the newest member of the New York Yankees and it's made him a popular fantasy baseball waiver wire target for those looking for roster help. If you have players on the latest MLB injury report or want to grab a rising fantasy baseball stock, then Carpenter may have caught your eye. He doesn't offer the same hype or upside as the MLB top prospects, but the Yankees' first baseman should not be ignored either. Let's take a closer look at Carpenter in the latest MLB Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight. 

 

 

Matt Carpenter Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

Based on what we now know, 2018 very much was the peak of Matt Carpenter’s career. Prior to that, Carpenter was perpetually a very solid and dependable fantasy baseball contributor but everything clicked from a power perspective that year. In 2018, he hit 36 home runs, scored 111 runs, and picked up 81 RBI to go along with a .257 batting average. Given how long ago that was – truly ancient history from a fantasy perspective – I’m not looking to relitigate things. 

However, based on what Carpenter has been doing since joining the Yankees, it’s hard not to pay attention.  

With a .226 batting average and just 15 home runs in 2019, Carpenter didn’t exactly follow up his career year all that well. Over the next two years, things got even worse for him. After hitting .186 and .169 in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Carpenter found himself out of a job and looking for a new team in 2022. Given what we had seen out of him over the past two years, Carpenter had already fallen out of favor from a fantasy perspective. So, it barely registered an impact when he signed with Texas on a minor league deal. 

Carpenter did have multiple offers ahead of this season, including at the major league level, but it’s clear that he made the correct decision. To say that this was a critical off-season for the future of Carpenter’s career would be an understatement, but he certainly came through. 

This is a story we have heard multiple times over the past decade but it has also run true and been a proven source of success. At the cross-hairs of his career, Carpenter spent a good deal of time this winter re-making his swing with multiple gurus and the adjustments he made are quite apparent. 

Before we go any further, we should keep in mind that Carpenter is in his age-36 season. So while he does have a pretty solid track record to go on, his older age is something we should keep in perspective. 

In 21 games in Triple-A, Carpenter had a successful audition with six home runs and 19 RBI while batting .275. Carpenter parlayed that into a contract with the Yankees after the Rangers oddly released him despite the good results. Now through 10 games, it’s very difficult to ignore what he has done. 

The main thing here is to be skeptical, although it’s not exactly groundbreaking analysis either. There is simply no way that Carpenter will be able to continue at his current pace as a .792 ISO is simply insane. Carpenter is doing so well that he is hitting .333 even despite a .182 BABIP. It’s also hard to argue with six home runs, 13 RBI, and 10 runs scored and it certainly should grab your attention. 

While we don’t want to overreact, Carpenter is hitting the ball better than he ever has, even if we are looking at just 17 batted ball events. He has a 24-degree launch angle, 29.4% barrel rate, and 93.7 mph average exit velocity. All of that is clearly having a positive impact on what we are seeing from Carpenter at the plate this year.

The adjustments that Carpenter made are clearly evident, but it’s also important to remember that he doesn’t play every day for the Yankees. That certainly can, and likely will, change if he continues to hit. Still, asking and expecting Carpenter to continue at his current rate isn’t sustainable. However, if these swing changes truly are real, success isn’t new for Carpenter and it’s possible we have some real value on our hands. 

Carpenter’s positional eligibility does depend on the site, but he can fill in as a first baseman or second baseman on Yahoo if you're looking for a short-term replacement. He is only rostered in 11% of CBS, 11% of Yahoo, and 20% of Fantrax leagues – so we are digging pretty deep here when it comes to waiver wire adds and that must be considered. If Carpenter keeps on hitting, it will get more difficult to ignore him, and I’m not sure that you should either. Just be sure to keep things in proper perspective here. 

 


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