The 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club (June 12-15) is a prime opportunity for Underdog PGA Pick'em players. Oakmont’s 7,321-yard par-70 layout, with 168 bunkers, lightning-fast Poa annua greens, and 5-inch rough, demands precision and scrambling. 

Fantasy Alarm’s Round 1 picks, based on Jake Perry’s video, highlight three strategic selections: Ludvig Aberg, Joaquin Niemann, and Rory McIlroy. 

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Underdog PGA Pick'em: Round 1 Picks for Oakmont

Oakmont’s history shows only 2% of players finish even par or better at U.S. Opens here, making Round 1 a grind where bogey avoidance and selective birdie-making are critical. Here are our Underdog Pick'em selections:

Ludvig Aberg Underdog U.S. Open PGA Picks – Higher Than 72.5 Strokes in Round 1

Aberg’s 2025 form has been shaky, with recent T16 (Memorial) and T13 (RBC Canadian) finishes hiding struggles around the greens and neutral putting. While his iron play is improving, Oakmont’s brutal setup—where even players like Jon Rahm opened with 76—makes the over on 72.5 strokes a solid play. Aberg’s lack of peak form suggests he’ll exceed this mark in Round 1.

 

Joaquin Niemann Underdog U.S. Open PGA Picks – 2.5 Birdies or Better in Round 1

Niemann is on fire, with four LIV Golf wins in eight 2025 starts, including last weekend in Virginia. His T8 at the PGA Championship and T29 at the Masters show major upside. Niemann’s elite irons (gaining nearly 3 strokes on LIV, 2+ at the PGA) and long, accurate driving fit Oakmont. His wedges and putting should yield enough birdies to hit 2.5 or better, even on a tough course.

 

Rory McIlroy Underdog U.S. Open PGA Picks – Lower Than 4.5 Bogeys in Round 1

Despite recent struggles (missed cut at RBC Canadian, T47 at PGA Championship), McIlroy is a value play under 4.5 bogeys. His return to the TaylorMade Qi10 driver, used in 2025 wins at the Masters, Players, and Pebble Beach Pro-Am, boosts confidence. While his irons have faltered, his strong wedges and putting should limit mistakes. McIlroy’s 2016 Oakmont missed cut is a concern, but a safer approach makes the under a smart pick.

 

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