Finally, we’re just one tournament away from the Masters! Luckily for us, we don’t have to wait to watch some great golf still. This week, we get the Valero Texas Open at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, Texas. 147 players will be teeing it up for their share of $9,500,000 and a chance at 500 FedEx Cup points. While we aren’t stacked in terms of top OWGR players, we do see a ton of previous winners, including the winners from 4 of the last 5 seasons in the field. Let’s dive in and break it down!

 

 

Valero Texas Open 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

As the tournament just before the Masters, we have a ton of eyes on this non-signature event. While some major names are skipping this week to rest up for the Masters, we've still got some big names looking to get a win to qualify and some who are just trying to stay ready to play. Even without the big names we see in other fields, Valero has been the home to some major performances, from Mike Souchak setting the PGA Tour 72 hole record of 27 under par in 1955 which stood until 1998, to Corey Conners winning after Monday Qualifying to become the first player to complete such a feat since 2010. With no shortage of fun storylines at play this week, let's take a look at the course hosting the event.

 

 

 

TPC San Antonio Oaks Course: Course Breakdown This Week

There are many out there who think this is a very boring golf course. I tend to disagree. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 playing at 7,438 yards and is a Pete Dye and Greg Norman design. Built in 2009, this has hosted the Valero Texas Open since 2010, so we do get to see a strong history of play here. Additionally, this is a top 5 course in terms of predictiveness, meaning historical results take a much larger impact here. The top historical performers in the field this week are: Sam Stevens, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, Charley Hoffman, Denny McCarthy, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, and Aaron Baddeley. Additionally, the following players have multiple top 10 finishes in the last 5 years: Corey Conners (2 Wins), Jordan Spieth (1 Win), Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, Adam Schenk, and Ben Martin. Each player listed above has a game that makes sense here, so this will be factored into my model weighting this week. 

With our standard 4/10/4 layout in terms of pars this week, we see some additional correlations come into play. With all Par 3’s playing 170+, All but one Par 4 playing between 400-500, and all Par 5s playing 550+ with two over 600, clearer scoring buckets come into play. Additionally, as the length in this course would imply, distance approach is huge here. In 2024, nearly 20 percent of approach shots came from 250+ yards out. Funny enough, the next most important approach buckets are the buckets from 50-125, which all played well above average tour importance. This has been consistent over the last few iterations of the event. In terms of pure course fit based on average strokes gained distributions (meaning their strokes gained distributions line up most similarly to the course) our top players for the course itself are: Aaron Baddeley, Frankie Capan III, Peter Malnati, Braden Thornberry, and Harry Hall.

While there are quite a few courses with similar strokes gained distributions, it’s clear that TPC San Antonio requires much better play around the greens. Monterey Peninsula Country Club, one of the rotational courses for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, plays most similarly, though as previously mentioned does not have as much importance on play around the green. The only course that has a similar distribution that’s been consistently in rotation is TPC Summerlin, which hosted events until last season. 

 

 

Valero Texas Open 2025 Field: Golf DFS

While certainly not the strongest field, it’s highlighted by Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama as the only two players in the OWGR top 10 in the field. Additionally, we see 6 more top 25 players, and 8 more in the top 50. The field will still be heavily competitive, even without a ton of elite names. As previously mentioned, many previous winners will be in the field. 2024 Winner Akshay Bhatia, 2022-23 and 2018-19 winner Corey Conners, 2020-21 winner Jordan Spieth, 2015-16 winner Charley Hoffman, 2008 and 2009 winner Zach Johnson, and 2013 winner Martin Laird will all tee it up this week. Conners and Zach Johnson will be looking to join Justin Leonard as the only 3 time winners in the history of the event. 

Lineups this week will be able to be very diverse, given no player has exorbitant high price tags like we’ve seen in recent events. Balanced line-ups with near top end prices, mixed with many of the great long shot plays in the field should create the opportunity to have some fun and get cute.  

 

 

This Week’s PGA DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator

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It provides projections, updates on player injuries, and a range of analytical insights to facilitate the lineup-building process. Essentially, it functions as a strategic advantage for participants in daily fantasy golf and makes their own PGA DFS picks!

PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 Valspar Championship (11-15 Overall, +3.70 Units)

  • Daniel Berger: Top 20 (+190)
  • Tom Kim: Top Korean Player (+130) 
  • Valero Texas Open One and Done Picks: 
    • Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Gary Woodland
 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier
 

Tommy Fleetwood ($11,900 FanDuel/$10,700 DraftKings)

Fleetwood is still due for a win, and this might be a good spot for him to get it. He’s one of the best ball-strikers on the planet, he’s been one of the more accurate drivers, and can get hot with the putter. He could be better at avoiding bogeys, but he scores more than enough for us to be excited here. If he can avoid losing strokes around the green, he can improve on his T7th finish here last season.

Patrick Cantlay ($11,600 FanDuel/$10,200 DraftKings)

Top 20 ball-striker, who’s top 20 on approach, on the green, and is top 30 with the wedges and driver. Cantlay is in a great spot this week, and the value we can get on him is potentially massive. He’s never played here, but look at his stat line at TPC Summerlin (the most similar course in play): 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 8th. This is the exact type of course he excels on, and he’s coming off a strong performance in his last start at the PLAYERS. I’ll be heavier on Cantlay this week than I normally would be comfortable being.

Corey Conners ($11,800 FanDuel/$10,100 DraftKings)

As a 2 time winner here, it should be no surprise that he’s in play this week. Conners has been playing some amazing golf of late, with top 10 finishes in each of his last 3 starts. Almost every part of his game has been performing well, gaining strokes in all major categories in those 3 previous starts. He may be chalk, but I do not care. Conners can make it number 3 this week.

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID-TIER

Akshay Bhatia ($10,800 FanDuel/$9,300 DraftKings)

The defending champion is in play this week, again probably to no one's surprise. While his baseline stats with the wedges are poor, he’s been neutral to positive strokes gained around the green outside of one horrendous showing in this aspect at the Sentry. Outside of his missed cut at the API, he’s got T10 finishes in 3 of his last four starts (much like Conners), and just put up one of the best events in terms of approach and putting in 2025 at the PLAYERS. He’s in a great spot to repeat if the driver cooperates. 

Denny McCarthy ($10,700 FanDuel/$9,000 DraftKings)

The 2024 champion is in play, so why not the 2024 runner up? Especially when you consider the improvements he’s made. Denny’s approach game has been one of the stronger parts of his game in 2025, as he’s actually gained more strokes per round with the irons than his putter (his historical super power). Luckily, the putter hasn’t fallen off either as he’s still 15th on tour in 2025 in SG: Putting. His wedge game has not been great with only two events this year where he hasn’t lost strokes, but ebbs and flows in this part of his game are not uncommon. He’s played well and improved here since he missed the cut in 2019, and maybe he can improve from 2nd to 1st.

Daniel Berger ($10,400 FanDuel/$9,200 DraftKings)

Berger is playing the best golf we’ve seen from him since his great seasons in 2020 and 2021. After not competing in 2023 after missing the cut at the 2022 U.S. Open, Berger struggled to find his form with only 3 top 10’s in 2024, 2 of which didn’t come until October. He started the season with 2 missed cuts in his first 3 starts (with a T21 sandwiched in between), but has been on fire since, with 5 straight finishes of T25th or better. Almost every part of his game is cooperating, save for the driver which failed him a bit at the PLAYERS. Luckily, driver play shouldn’t impact finish too heavily this week, so Berger is one of my absolute favorites, especially as a One-and-Done pick.

Jordan Spieth ($11,100 FanDuel/$9,700 DraftKings)

The Jordan Spieth experience is alive and well. Two top 10 finishes, 2 finishes outside the top 50, and a missed cut this year prove that, but I’m not concerned. Regardless of where his game has stood, Valero has always been a comfort spot for him. He hasn’t missed the cut here since 2013, with a win, a 2nd place finish, and two top 10’s (including last season). His game was in absolute shambles last year prior to Valero, yet he still just continued to play well here. Regardless of how heavily the stats do not play in his favor this week, I can’t not take the swing.

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER

Ben Griffin ($9,500 FanDuel/$7,900 DraftKings)

Griffin is a bit of a wild-card for me this week. He hasn’t necessarily played well here, and while he did go T4th-T4th earlier this year, he’s also got missed cuts in 2 of his last 3 starts on tour. This is purely a feel play for me, as I think his ball-striking, approach, and wedge game have been good enough to compete here. At the value price we can get him at this week, specifically on DraftKings, I’m gonna take a shot here. 

Bud Cauley ($9,800 FanDuel/$8,300 DraftKings)

Bud Cauley has snuck under the radar in a lot of ways this year. Yes, his name has been near the top of leaderboards in his last two starts, but I think a ton of people would be shocked to hear that he’s been a top 25 player in terms of strokes gained in 2025. His ball-striking, tee-to-green, and approach numbers have been nothing short of spectacular this year, and the value he presents here is yet again, too good to pass up. 

Harry Hall ($9,500 FanDuel/$7,700 DraftKings)

I get that he can’t get off the tee to save his life most weeks. And yes, his iron play has been mostly bad this year. But I can’t quit Harry Hall. Dude avoids bogey’s and makes birdies or better with the best of them. The putter has been strong, the wedges have been good, and that’s really all you need here.

 

 

PGA DFS Picks This Week (Cheat Sheet)

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