The 2025 PGA TOUR season is upon us with The Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii. This nearly 7,600 yard par 73 course is one of a kind on tour, as it’s both one of the longest and the only par 73. With beautiful Bermudagrass greens and a strong field of 31 tournament winners from 2025, as well as 29 from the 2024 FedEx Cup standings, we’re in for quite the treat!

The first of 8 Signature Events on the 2025 PGA Tour Schedule, The Sentry sports a $20,000,000 purse, with the winner taking home $3,600,000 and 700 FedEx points.

 

 

Sentry Tournament of Champions 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

This no-cut event is the opening of the season and gives us some insight into the early part of the PGA TOUR season. Defending champion Chris Kirk will look to retain his crown, and join Justin Thomas as the only two time winner still on the PGA tour in full capacity. While world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will not be in the field this week, we’re in for a great 4 days of low scoring in Hawaii.

 

 

The Plantation Course at Kapalua: Breakdown This Week

While Kapalua is listed just under 7,600 yards, this number is very deceiving. Between the potential for wind and the elevation changes on the course, even the signature hole of the course, the 18th, which is a 677 yard hole, is reachable in two strokes for most of the above-average drivers of the golf ball.

Being an ocean-front course, the weather will be a key factor in how low scoring will go. The last 4 iterations of this event have had calm weather, resulting in winning scores between -25 and -34 (which is the tournament record for lowest score). At the time of writing, Thursday is the only day with concerning weather, with an 80% chance of rain, but the rest of the weekend looks clear with temps reaching the low 80’s and wind projected below 10 miles per hour. With this said, we may start slow but we should be in for another weekend of low scores.

Additionally, this course has a very predictive history which allows us to look at previous results to help determine the players of interest to us. Between course history, we’re also focusing more heavily on key stats such as Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Birdies or Better Percentage.

 

 

 

2025 The Sentry Tournament of Champions Field: Golf DFS

Given the name of the event, The Tournament of Champions, it should be no surprise to learn that this is a stacked group of talent. Even with some notable names dropping out, such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry (with Viktor Hovland TBD after breaking his toe), this event sports one of the stronger fields we will see in 2025. 2024 Champion Chris Kirk will be returning to this event, looking to defend his title, as well as other previous winners in Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele who will be looking to return to the podium.

We do have some notable absences to an already small field however. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has withdrawn from the field with a puncture wound sustained while preparing Christmas dinner. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry have turned down their invitations, and Viktor Hovland is TBD after breaking his pinky toe. Luckily, given the overall talent pool, even in a smaller field, we should be able to still find some great values.

 

 

 

This Week’s PGA DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator

To enhance your daily fantasy golf selections and secure optimal PGA DFS values, it's advisable to utilize our PGA DFS optimizer and lineup generator. This optimizer serves as a valuable resource for daily fantasy golf enthusiasts aiming to develop effective lineups!

It provides projections, updates on player injuries and a range of analytical insights to facilitate the lineup-building process. Essentially, it functions as a strategic advantage for participants in daily fantasy golf and makes their own PGA DFS picks!

 

PGA Best Bets & Predictions: 2025 The Sentry Tournament of Champions (0-0 Overall, 0 Units)

  • Ludvig Aberg: Top European (+300)
  • Collin Morikawa: Top 10 (+100) 

 

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier

Xander Schauffele ($12,600)

To no one’s surprise, Xander is my model's favorite player this week. Amongst the field, Xander’s 2024 put him 16th in SG:ARG, top 12 in Driving Distance, and top 5 in our other 3 statistics. Xander has played this course well in his career as well. He debuted here in the 2017-2018 season, finishing T22. He then won the next year and has not finished worse than solo 12th since, including losing in a playoff in 2020. While Xander hasn’t played since the ZOZO Championship, in 2024 Xander finished outside the top 25 in only 2 of his 22 starts, and racked up 15 top 10’s.

Justin Thomas ($11,900)

While Thomas can be a streaky player, there is no questioning his success at Kapalua. As the only two time winner in the field, he has to be in this conversation. 2024 was not his best season by any means, but he did score favorably with my model, as he finished top 10 amongst the field in our key statistics and his course history. He ended 2024 on a hot streak, starting with a T13 at the TOUR Championship, and finishing up with a T2 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and a 3rd overall finish at the Hero World Challenge. Thomas’ biggest issue the last few years has been his overall putting, but given the course layout, he can likely consistently get close enough to hit the numbers we want to see at this price.

Collin Morikawa ($12,100)

The top end of this slate is loaded with talent, but even at these prices, it's not often you can get someone who has played a tournament 5 times and never finished worse than T7 and not have them be the highest priced. Morikawa absolutely loves playing at Kapalua, and he will look to avenge his poor final round performance where he blew a 6 shot lead to eventually come in 2nd.
 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID TIER

Akshay Bhatia ($10,400)

Bhatia made his Sentry debut last season, coming out strong with a T14 finish. His win at the Valero Texas Open secured his spot in the event this year, and he’s coming of a hot streak of golf, having finished 4th at the Hero World Challenge and T3 with partner Jennifer Kupcho at the Grant Thornton Invitational. While my model doesn’t particularly love him (34th out of 59), I’m betting on the recent success and the improved ball-striking we saw at the Hero World Championship.

Davis Thompson ($9,500)

Thompson is the name that stood out most in my model. The young pro is coming off his best season in 2024, with a win at the John Deere Classic that secured his spot in this field. Thompson comes out 4th overall in my model and is one of only two golfers in the field who finished 2024 top 50 on tour in each of our key statistics. While TPC Deere Run has bentgrass greens as opposed to Bermudagrass, he’s played well on Bermuda as well, as we saw in his T2 finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic. At this price, I’m definitely taking a swing on Thompson.

 

 

GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER

Harry Hall ($7,900)

Not one player in this field had a higher Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024, and for that reason alone, Hall is one of my favorite value picks. While his performance off the tee leaves a bit to be desired, Hall was one of the best players in the world around the green in 2024 and with the benefit of this course being so forgiving off the tee, I’m gonna lean into these strengths. Hall ended his season strong, with a T9 finish at the Shriners Children’s Open, T13 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and a T14 at the World Wide Technology Championship. If he can bring the game he had at the ZOZO where he finished 4th in SG:OTT, he’s got a chance to do something really special at this value.

 

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,300)

My model also shockingly likes what Vegas can bring to this as a value play. Despite being 40 years old, Vegas finished inside the top 10 on TOUR in Driving Distance and SG:OTT and 16th in Birdies or Better Percentage. Vegas has not played this event since 2018, but did finish T7th that year and ranked top 10 in many of the key statistics we’re looking at. Given his long tee shot ability and bogey avoidance, he’s a great value for this lineup.

Player Pool

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