PGA DFS Playbook AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Top DraftKings & FanDuel PGA DFS Picks
Published: Feb 01, 2023
Jon Rahm nearly did it again. He was sitting in second place behind Sam Ryder heading into the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open but a 74 on Sunday ended his dream of three wins in a row. Max Homa shot a closing round 66 to take the title by two strokes over surging Keegan Bradley. Homa played consistent golf throughout the weekend at Torrey before surging to the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. This is Max’s first PGA Tour victory since becoming a father at the end of October. Torrey Pines seems to be a special place for first time father’s like when Jon Rahm won the U.S. Open there in 2021. Collin Morikawa scored his second Top 5 finish of the 2023 calendar year at the Farmers. Another name you should expect to see on a lot of leaderboards this season is Sahith Theegala, finished fourth this weekend and already his fourth Top 10 finish this season. Jason Day does it again at the Farmers, scoring his fourth Top 10 finish at this event in his last six starts. Enough of about last week, let's move onto one of the marquee courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Pebble Beach.
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is another one of those special events where the tournament is played over three different courses and there is no cut until after the third round. I’ve said this repeatedly but when you get an extra round from all your golfers, you can afford to take more risk in your lineups. I would definitely lean more towards constructing a stars and scrubs lineup.
Let’s talk about the courses. We’ve got Pebble Beach Golf Links (Par 72 – 6,972 yards), Monterey Peninsula (Par 71 – 6,957 yards) and Spyglass Hill (Par 72 – 7,041 yards). You’ll notice that these courses are rather short and these players can go low but that is almost completely weather dependent. This weekend looks to be pretty gray with cloud cover most of the weekend. There is rain in the forecast, mostly in the mornings over the weekend. The winds will fluctuate throughout the weekend ranging from below five to the mid teens. When you see conditions like these, I’m going to lean more towards experienced players at Pebble Beach because they've played through this before.
All of these courses have a few things in common. They are all short for PGA tour standards, they all have tons of water and hazards, they all have poa annua greens and most importantly they are all second shot golf courses. That means we will weigh Strokes Gained: Approach more than usual. We need players who can fire the ball close. We will see these players miss greens which means we are also looking for good scramblers which is why you saw Tom Hoge take it down last year. He finished last season ranked 16th on Tour in Scrambling. This will be weighed even more this weekend because the weather could cause a lot of balls to go wayward.
One more thing you must remember about this event, the celebrity factor. The speed of the game slows down considerably and a lot of these players are not used to it. That's another reason why I'm usually hesitant to roster new guys at Pebble. You've also got a lot of big name celebrities playing with these pros which gives you another level of distraction. Bill Murray is a staple of this event and makes it all about him. Just make sure you check out which type of celebrity is playing with your golfer, that can play a big role in determining the winner this weekend.
Pebble Beach is one of the great public venues in the United States and always a fun weekend of golf. There are not many golf hacks out there that wouldn’t give a full paycheck for a chance to play this track, myself being one of them.
My One and Done Pick will be Trey Mullinax.
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | Draft % (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) | Draft % (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | Jordan Spieth | 10600 | 11900 | ||
We have not seen Jordan since his missed cut at the Sony Open but it is no surprise that he showed back up at Pebble Beach. He loves this place with four Top 10 finishes in his last six starts including his win in 2017. He finished last season ranked 18th in Tee to Green, 21st in Birdie Average, 27th in Around the Green, 31st in Approach, and 38th in Off the Tee. We know what Jordan brings to the course but his finish will depend on his putting stroke on this poa annua greens. We know the course fits his game. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Matt Fitzpatrick | 10100 | 11800 | ||
Another player who hasn’t teed it up in a few weeks. He finished 7th at the Sentry in Hawaii but he’s been dormant ever since. The reigning U.S. Open Champion finished 12th at the 2019 Open at Pebble Beach and sixth at this event last year. We know he’s a fantastic tee to green player. He ranks 7th in Greens in Regulation, 10th in Driving Accuracy, 15th in Off the Tee, 19th in Putting, and 30th in Birdie Average. He’s the 10th ranked player in the world for a reason, he’s fantastic all around. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Seamus Power | 9800 | 11200 | ||
Power finished up the 2022 calendar year with three straight Top 5 finishes including a win at the Bermuda Championship. We haven’t seen him tee it up since the Sentry when he finished 25th. Seamus is back to avenge his weekend collapse at this event in 2022. He was the leader heading into the weekend at Pebble Beach before finishing 9th. He ranks 9th in Birdie Average, 9th in Putting, 19th in Around the Green, 29th in Scoring Average, and 36th in Greens in Regulation. He currently ranks 5th in FedEx Cup points heading into this event. I like him coming back to back up his performance in 2022. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Maverick McNealy | 9600 | 16.1% | 11100 | 9.6% |
While I would have liked a little bit better finish at Torrey Pines but I’ll take a 31st. He has made the cut at Pebble Beach in three straight starts including a 2nd and 5th place finish on his resume. He’s also made the cut in 13th of his last 15 starts including five Top 10 finishes over that run. McNealy ranks 2nd in Putting, 5th in Scoring Average, and most importantly 7th in Scrambling. He continues to give you high upside despite the price tag moving up in this field. One of the better talents playing this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Denny McCarthy | 9200 | 10500 | ||
Denny doesn’t have many high finishes in the early portion of the 2022-2023 season but he’s made the cut in six straight starts. He has made the cut at this event in two of his three trips including a 12th place finish just last year. This course fits his game, he finished last season ranked 2nd in Putting, 7th in Scrambling, 22nd in Scoring Average, 36th in Around the Greens, and 37th in Driving Accuracy. While I don’t love paying this much money for McCarthy but when you look at the field it’s a necessary evil. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Joel Dahmen | 9000 | 10600 | ||
It was a fantastic finish to the 2022 calendar year for Dahmen scoring three straight Top 10 finishes at the Mayakoba, Houston and RSM. He pulled out of the American Express which would have been his first start of 2023 but his brand new baby boy Riggs had other plans. Joel will tee it up for the first time since becoming a father this weekend. We saw Max Homa win after becoming a papa last weekend at Torrey. Dahmen has made the cut at Pebble Beach in all five of his starts with two Top 15 finishes in his last three. The former Washington Husky ranks 3rd in Scoring Average, 9th in Scrambling, 11th in Tee to Green, 16th in Driving Accuracy, 23rd in Off the Tee, 28th in Approach, and 28th in Greens in Regulation. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Thomas Detry | 8800 | 10.7% | 10200 | 12.1% |
While his finishes have fallen each of the last four weeks, he continues to make cuts and it’s hard to pass on a guy like that when you see this field. He is not flashy but he’ll get the job done for his cost. This will be his first trip to Pebble Beach but playing on the DP World Tour, he knows how to play in these conditions better than most. Detry ranks 5th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Birdie Average, 30th in Scoring Average, 40th in Around the Green, 42nd in Tee to Green, and 61st in Off the Tee. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Ben Griffin | 8600 | 10.6% | 10000 | 6.7% |
This 26-year-old seems to be coming into his own on the PGA Tour. He is on one of his best runs since turning pro in 2016. Since the start of the 2022-2023 PGA Tour season, he has yet to miss a cut in one of his starts which encompasses nine events with three finishes of 16th or better. While this will be his first trip to Pebble Beach, I believe he’s got all the tools to have success. He ranks 25th in Scoring Average, 28th in Birdie Average, 34th in Tee to Green, 41st in Approach, and 67th in Greens in Regulation. When you look at this field, these are some of the better numbers across the board that you’ll see. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Taylor Moore | 8300 | 1.5% | 9700 | 1.5% |
Here’s another young player finding his way on the PGA Tour. He finished last season inside the Top 75 in FedEx Cup standings. He also ranked 32nd in Birdie Average, 39th in Greens in Regulation, and 49th in Off the Tee. Another reason I like Moore this weekend is being ranked 30th in Scrambling this season. Moore broke a streak of three straight missed cuts with a 11th place finish at the Farmers Insurance. He also finished 16th in his debut at this event last year. I feel like he makes for a nice under the radar play this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Trey Mullinax | 8100 | 1.0% | 9600 | 1.7% |
Trey has long been one of the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour. It has not amounted to many wins though as he only has one career victory since turning pro in 2014. Mullinax has had a nice run to start the season making the cut in four of his last five with a Top 5 at the Houston Open. He has made the cut in all four of his trips to Pebble Beach with three Top 30 finishes over that span. If one of the best drivers of the golf ball can keep it on the fairway this weekend, he could make for a nice value play. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Nick Taylor | 8000 | 9700 | ||
I bet you wouldn’t know that Nick Taylor of all people has an incredible record at Pebble Beach. Some guys just love curtain tracks. He has made the cut here six of his seven trips with a win and two other Top 10 finishes. While Taylor has missed two of his last three cuts on Tour, the one he made he finished 7th at the Sony Open. The two time PGA Tour winner ranks Top 50 in Approach, Around the Green, Birdie Average and Putting. The general public won’t be looking at Taylor this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Brendon Todd | 7900 | 9500 | ||
I spoke about the importance of being accurate off the tee and there are few players better than Todd. He currently ranks 12th in Driving Accuracy, 20th in Birdie Average, 25th in Around the Green, 33rd in Putting, 36th Scoring Average, 44th in Scrambling and 47th in Approach. Brendon is also one of the best putters in the world. He has had mixed results at Pebble Beach, very boom or bust. In nine trips, he has three finishes inside the Top 16 but also five missed cuts. I will save him for tournaments this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Russell Knox | 7500 | 9400 | ||
It has been a really solid start for Knox this season, making the cut in nine of his 10 starts thus far which includes three Top 25 finishes. We know that Knox is one of the better ball strikers in the world but his distance has always held him back. These courses are not long which evens the playing field for the shorter hitters like him. The two time winner on the PGA Tour ranks 6th in Approach, 40th in Greens in Regulation, and 60th in Tee to Green. Knox has made the cut at Pebble Beach in four of his last five trips with three Top 15 finishes. I’d trust him in cash or tournaments this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Joseph Bramlett | 7400 | 2.5% | 8600 | 3.2% |
He’s teeing it up in his home state of California once again. While the Stanford man is still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour, he’s been playing good golf this season. Bramlett has made six straight cuts including a Top 10 at the Houston Open and a Top 15 at last week’s American Express. This will be his sixth trip to Pebble Beach and has made the cut three times with a Top 20 in 2020. He has the tools to compete on this course ranking 26th in Driving Distance, 30th in Tee to Green, 42nd in Off the Tee, 50th in Approach and 58th in Scrambling. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Nate Lashley | 7300 | 8900 | ||
The fact that Lashley is not in the 6K range tells me that the depth this weekend is not great. I will say it was hard to find value options that I really liked this weekend but Lashley ain’t bad. He has made the cut in three of his last four trips to Pebble Beach which includes a Top 5 finish in 2021. I will say that he hasn’t played great golf recently, but did score a 7th place finish at the Sony Open. We can hold our hats on the fact that Lashley has typically performed better on shorter courses. I’m willing to throw him in some tournaments because of his accuracy and ability on the greens. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Troy Merritt | 7200 | 8800 | ||
Troy is one of those guys who I usually target in weaker field events like this one. He has shown an ability to stand out amongst the second and third tier players. While he isn’t a bomber, he has shown the ability to be successful on shorter courses like this one. Merritt has made the cut at this event in his last four trips with two Top 10 finishes and another two Top 25s. He finished last season ranked 38th in Scrambling, 39th in Scoring Average, and 43rd in both Putting and Driving Accuracy. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Kevin Streelman | 7100 | 1.5% | 8800 | 1.8% |
Streelman is one of those guys who I only play on curtain courses. This is one of them. He has been to this course more times than I can count but what is most important is that he’s finished inside the Top 20 in seven of his last 10 visits. Kevin has made the cut in two of his last three starts including last week at the Farmers. Streelman has always been one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball finishing last season ranked 6th and 42nd in Off the Tee. He also finished 15th in Scrambling as well. Kevin’s one of those guys you can trust to make the cut and hopefully spike on the weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Matthias Schwab | 6900 | 7800 | ||
You’ll notice a theme with a lot of my picks this weekend, short accurate hitters of the golf ball. Matthias fits that model perfectly. He has made four of his last five cuts with a Top 30 finish at the American Express in his last start. We see a trend of good results at short courses like 21st at the Mayakoba, 16th at the John Deere and a Top 10 at the Valero and Honda. Schwab also made the cut in his first trip to Pebble Beach last year. Game Type: CASH & GPP |
G | 10600 | 11900 | |||
We have not seen Jordan since his missed cut at the Sony Open but it is no surprise that he showed back up at Pebble Beach. He loves this place with four Top 10 finishes in his last six starts including his win in 2017. He finished last season ranked 18th in Tee to Green, 21st in Birdie Average, 27th in Around the Green, 31st in Approach, and 38th in Off the Tee. We know what Jordan brings to the course but his finish will depend on his putting stroke on this poa annua greens. We know the course fits his game. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 10100 | 11800 | |||
Another player who hasn’t teed it up in a few weeks. He finished 7th at the Sentry in Hawaii but he’s been dormant ever since. The reigning U.S. Open Champion finished 12th at the 2019 Open at Pebble Beach and sixth at this event last year. We know he’s a fantastic tee to green player. He ranks 7th in Greens in Regulation, 10th in Driving Accuracy, 15th in Off the Tee, 19th in Putting, and 30th in Birdie Average. He’s the 10th ranked player in the world for a reason, he’s fantastic all around. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Seamus Power, G | 9800 | 11200 | ||
Power finished up the 2022 calendar year with three straight Top 5 finishes including a win at the Bermuda Championship. We haven’t seen him tee it up since the Sentry when he finished 25th. Seamus is back to avenge his weekend collapse at this event in 2022. He was the leader heading into the weekend at Pebble Beach before finishing 9th. He ranks 9th in Birdie Average, 9th in Putting, 19th in Around the Green, 29th in Scoring Average, and 36th in Greens in Regulation. He currently ranks 5th in FedEx Cup points heading into this event. I like him coming back to back up his performance in 2022. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 9600 | 11100 | |||
While I would have liked a little bit better finish at Torrey Pines but I’ll take a 31st. He has made the cut at Pebble Beach in three straight starts including a 2nd and 5th place finish on his resume. He’s also made the cut in 13th of his last 15 starts including five Top 10 finishes over that run. McNealy ranks 2nd in Putting, 5th in Scoring Average, and most importantly 7th in Scrambling. He continues to give you high upside despite the price tag moving up in this field. One of the better talents playing this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 9200 | 10500 | |||
Denny doesn’t have many high finishes in the early portion of the 2022-2023 season but he’s made the cut in six straight starts. He has made the cut at this event in two of his three trips including a 12th place finish just last year. This course fits his game, he finished last season ranked 2nd in Putting, 7th in Scrambling, 22nd in Scoring Average, 36th in Around the Greens, and 37th in Driving Accuracy. While I don’t love paying this much money for McCarthy but when you look at the field it’s a necessary evil. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Joel Dahmen, G | 9000 | 10600 | ||
It was a fantastic finish to the 2022 calendar year for Dahmen scoring three straight Top 10 finishes at the Mayakoba, Houston and RSM. He pulled out of the American Express which would have been his first start of 2023 but his brand new baby boy Riggs had other plans. Joel will tee it up for the first time since becoming a father this weekend. We saw Max Homa win after becoming a papa last weekend at Torrey. Dahmen has made the cut at Pebble Beach in all five of his starts with two Top 15 finishes in his last three. The former Washington Husky ranks 3rd in Scoring Average, 9th in Scrambling, 11th in Tee to Green, 16th in Driving Accuracy, 23rd in Off the Tee, 28th in Approach, and 28th in Greens in Regulation. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Thomas Detry, G | 8800 | 10200 | ||
While his finishes have fallen each of the last four weeks, he continues to make cuts and it’s hard to pass on a guy like that when you see this field. He is not flashy but he’ll get the job done for his cost. This will be his first trip to Pebble Beach but playing on the DP World Tour, he knows how to play in these conditions better than most. Detry ranks 5th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Birdie Average, 30th in Scoring Average, 40th in Around the Green, 42nd in Tee to Green, and 61st in Off the Tee. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Ben Griffin, G | 8600 | 10000 | ||
This 26-year-old seems to be coming into his own on the PGA Tour. He is on one of his best runs since turning pro in 2016. Since the start of the 2022-2023 PGA Tour season, he has yet to miss a cut in one of his starts which encompasses nine events with three finishes of 16th or better. While this will be his first trip to Pebble Beach, I believe he’s got all the tools to have success. He ranks 25th in Scoring Average, 28th in Birdie Average, 34th in Tee to Green, 41st in Approach, and 67th in Greens in Regulation. When you look at this field, these are some of the better numbers across the board that you’ll see. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Taylor Moore, G | 8300 | 9700 | ||
Here’s another young player finding his way on the PGA Tour. He finished last season inside the Top 75 in FedEx Cup standings. He also ranked 32nd in Birdie Average, 39th in Greens in Regulation, and 49th in Off the Tee. Another reason I like Moore this weekend is being ranked 30th in Scrambling this season. Moore broke a streak of three straight missed cuts with a 11th place finish at the Farmers Insurance. He also finished 16th in his debut at this event last year. I feel like he makes for a nice under the radar play this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 8100 | 9600 | |||
Trey has long been one of the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour. It has not amounted to many wins though as he only has one career victory since turning pro in 2014. Mullinax has had a nice run to start the season making the cut in four of his last five with a Top 5 at the Houston Open. He has made the cut in all four of his trips to Pebble Beach with three Top 30 finishes over that span. If one of the best drivers of the golf ball can keep it on the fairway this weekend, he could make for a nice value play. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Nick Taylor, G | 8000 | 9700 | ||
I bet you wouldn’t know that Nick Taylor of all people has an incredible record at Pebble Beach. Some guys just love curtain tracks. He has made the cut here six of his seven trips with a win and two other Top 10 finishes. While Taylor has missed two of his last three cuts on Tour, the one he made he finished 7th at the Sony Open. The two time PGA Tour winner ranks Top 50 in Approach, Around the Green, Birdie Average and Putting. The general public won’t be looking at Taylor this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Brendon Todd, G | 7900 | 9500 | ||
I spoke about the importance of being accurate off the tee and there are few players better than Todd. He currently ranks 12th in Driving Accuracy, 20th in Birdie Average, 25th in Around the Green, 33rd in Putting, 36th Scoring Average, 44th in Scrambling and 47th in Approach. Brendon is also one of the best putters in the world. He has had mixed results at Pebble Beach, very boom or bust. In nine trips, he has three finishes inside the Top 16 but also five missed cuts. I will save him for tournaments this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Russell Knox, G | 7500 | 9400 | ||
It has been a really solid start for Knox this season, making the cut in nine of his 10 starts thus far which includes three Top 25 finishes. We know that Knox is one of the better ball strikers in the world but his distance has always held him back. These courses are not long which evens the playing field for the shorter hitters like him. The two time winner on the PGA Tour ranks 6th in Approach, 40th in Greens in Regulation, and 60th in Tee to Green. Knox has made the cut at Pebble Beach in four of his last five trips with three Top 15 finishes. I’d trust him in cash or tournaments this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 7400 | 8600 | |||
He’s teeing it up in his home state of California once again. While the Stanford man is still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour, he’s been playing good golf this season. Bramlett has made six straight cuts including a Top 10 at the Houston Open and a Top 15 at last week’s American Express. This will be his sixth trip to Pebble Beach and has made the cut three times with a Top 20 in 2020. He has the tools to compete on this course ranking 26th in Driving Distance, 30th in Tee to Green, 42nd in Off the Tee, 50th in Approach and 58th in Scrambling. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Nate Lashley, G | 7300 | 8900 | ||
The fact that Lashley is not in the 6K range tells me that the depth this weekend is not great. I will say it was hard to find value options that I really liked this weekend but Lashley ain’t bad. He has made the cut in three of his last four trips to Pebble Beach which includes a Top 5 finish in 2021. I will say that he hasn’t played great golf recently, but did score a 7th place finish at the Sony Open. We can hold our hats on the fact that Lashley has typically performed better on shorter courses. I’m willing to throw him in some tournaments because of his accuracy and ability on the greens. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Troy Merritt, G | 7200 | 8800 | ||
Troy is one of those guys who I usually target in weaker field events like this one. He has shown an ability to stand out amongst the second and third tier players. While he isn’t a bomber, he has shown the ability to be successful on shorter courses like this one. Merritt has made the cut at this event in his last four trips with two Top 10 finishes and another two Top 25s. He finished last season ranked 38th in Scrambling, 39th in Scoring Average, and 43rd in both Putting and Driving Accuracy. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 7100 | 8800 | |||
Streelman is one of those guys who I only play on curtain courses. This is one of them. He has been to this course more times than I can count but what is most important is that he’s finished inside the Top 20 in seven of his last 10 visits. Kevin has made the cut in two of his last three starts including last week at the Farmers. Streelman has always been one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball finishing last season ranked 6th and 42nd in Off the Tee. He also finished 15th in Scrambling as well. Kevin’s one of those guys you can trust to make the cut and hopefully spike on the weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 6900 | 7800 | |||
You’ll notice a theme with a lot of my picks this weekend, short accurate hitters of the golf ball. Matthias fits that model perfectly. He has made four of his last five cuts with a Top 30 finish at the American Express in his last start. We see a trend of good results at short courses like 21st at the Mayakoba, 16th at the John Deere and a Top 10 at the Valero and Honda. Schwab also made the cut in his first trip to Pebble Beach last year. Game Type: CASH & GPP |