NHL DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Wednesday Playbook
Published: Dec 04, 2024
We have a smaller four-game slate for NHL DFS picks today, but it still features plenty of star power to build your lineups around.
We'll see some pretty chalky players but that is to be expected for a smaller slate.
NHL DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, December 4th
With a smaller slate, it can be tough to get away from what are the clear best plays, but going against the grain has it benefits in tournaments.
This is the type of slate where a three-max can be fun. Roll with two lineups where you go with the chalk, then one full contrarian.
NHL DFS Pick'em Picks On Sleeper Fantasy
- Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
- Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Assists
The Nashville Predators' slow start to the season has been well chronicled by many but that doesn't mean they don't bring some fantasy value to the table. Over the last 10 games, Jonathan Marchessault has a team-high 35 shots on goal, while seeing time on the second forward line and the first power-play unit. They are up against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are allowing 62.14 Total Shot Attempts per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last two weeks, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
Pavel Dorofeyev and the Vegas Golden Knights are coming off a big win last night over the Edmonton Oilers and they can look to build on that tonight against the Anaheim Ducks. Dorofeyev has been super solid for the Golden Knights with 29 shots on goal in the last 10 games, which includes six straight games with at least three shots on goal.
Mitch Marner has always been an assist machine and with Auston Matthews back in the lineup, that is amped up even more. While they don't skate on the same forward line, the power-play time is always there and with a solid 3.1 implied goal total tonight, the Maple Leafs should be able to get some scoring going versus the Nashville Predators. Marner comes in with 24 assists in 24 games this season, a rate he can push higher tonight.
Wednesday Salary Cap DFS Picks
Goalie Of the Day: Ilya Samsonov - VGK
There's no doubt that Ilya Samsonov is coming off a few rough starts but the matchup against the Anaheim Ducks is very clearly a get-right spot. Seeing 4+ goals allowed in four of his last five starts isn't great, the Ducks are the second-lowest scoring team in the league.
They have a total of 60 goals in 23 games – 2.6 per game – their power will is also sitting at 15.7%, which is 27th in the league. They are legitimately one of the worst offenses in the league and it should put Samsonov in a spot to come away with a “cleaner” game and the win.
Play Of The Day: Auston Matthews - TOR
Auston Matthews missed nearly a month of games and returned with three points and five shots on goal in his first two games back. He hasn't missed a step and is looking like he never missed a game.
While we have Jack Eichel on this slate in a great matchup against the Ducks, he's been a bit slow in recent games and lacking fantasy production. Matthews and the Maple Leafs should be chalky tonight but the multi-point potential is clear for Matthews on any slate. Juuse Saros should be in net for the Predators and with him allowing three goals or more in four straight games, the Leafs should be able to get the offense going tonight.
Value Play Of The Day: Ivan Barbashev - VGK
The chalk for tonight should come down to the Vegas Golden Knights and the Toronto Maple Leafs, so this is where most people will look for some value. Let's turn to Ivan Barbashev, who has been skating on the first forward line and the second power-play unit for the Golden Knights.
Over the last 10 games, he has piled up 5 goals, 6 assists, 18 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots. Bringing fantasy value each and every night, which should continue tonight versus the Ducks, who have allowed 2.72 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last two weeks, which is the 11th-worst in the league, but the second-worst among teams on tonight's slate.
Stack Of The Day: TOR L1/PP1 (Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Knies)
Auston Matthews is back for the Maple Leafs and they've scored nine goals in the last two games. They got things cooking on offense and it's a clear spot to target them tonight against the Nashville Predators.
The goal potential is serious for the Maple Leafs tonight considering the Predators have allowed 12.27 High Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last two weeks, which is the fourth-most in the league. Allowing those juicy chances right in front of the net only presents an upside for a player such as Matthews or William Nylander. I'm adding in Matthew Knies since he's also on the first forward line and the first power-play unit with the other two.
Today's NHL DFS Cheat Sheet & Stacks
Player Pool
| $ Tier | C | W | D | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Auston Matthews  $8,400 | Mitch Marner $7,900 |  Roman Josi $7,200 |  Ilya Samsonov $7,900 |
| Jack Eichel $8,500 |  David Pastrnak $7,800 |  Miro Heiskanen $6,400 | Jeremy Swayman $8,000 | |
| William Nylander $8,000 |  Adrian Kempe $7,100 | Shea Theodore $6,000 | ||
| Medium | Matt Duchene $6,700 | Ivan Barbashev $6,700 | Brandt Clarke $5,900 | Joseph Woll $7,700 |
| Anze Kopitar $6,600 | Mason Marchment $6,600 | Morgan Rielly $5,800 | ||
| Tomas Hertl $6,200 | Pavel Dorofeyev $6,200 | Alex Pietrangelo $5,700 | ||
 Frank Vatrano $6,100 | ||||
| Low | William Karlsson $5,900 | Jonathan Marchessault $5,500 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson $4,700 | Jake Oettinger $7,500 |
| Ryan O'Reilly $5,500 | Jamie Benn $5,300 | Thomas Harley $5,200 | ||
| Pavel Zacha $4,900 | Nicolas Roy $4,500 | |||
| Matthew Knies $5,900 |
Stacks
| Maple Leafs | Auston Matthews | William Nylander | Matthew Knies |
 DraftKings | 9800 | 7900 | 4400 |
| Fanduel | 8400 | 8000 | 5900 |
| Golden Knights | Ivan Barbashev | Jack Eichel | Pavel Dorofeyev |
| DraftKings | 4300 | 9300 | 5100 |
| Fanduel | 6700 | 8500 | 6200 |
| Maple Leafs | Auston Matthews | William Nylander | Matthew Knies |
| DraftKings | 9800 | 7900 | 4400 |
| Fanduel | 8400 | 8000 | 5900 |
| Golden Knights | Ivan Barbashev | Jack Eichel | Pavel Dorofeyev |
| DraftKings | 4300 | 9300 | 5100 |
| Fanduel | 6700 | 8500 | 6200 |
Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.