NHL Best Bets and Betting Picks: January 4th

Welcome to the first big time Thursday of the 2024 NHL calendar year! With NFL TNF in the rearview its time to hop on the bandwagon of hockey and what better way than a 13 game slate to dip your toes in the water. In today's article you will find a Money Line wager, game total bet, team total wager and a player prop, PLUS the Dog of the Day returns once again! If you like the rationale then tail the picks, if you don't feel free to fade as sometimes the best bets are the ones not taken!
- Season Record: 59-53-2
- Bankroll: +2.71 units
- Dog of the Day Record: 4-5 (+0.95 Units)
Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
NHL Best Bets for January 4th
Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars
Death, taxes and the Stars getting into goal bonanzas at home this season in the Big D. I'm not kidding when I tell you the trend is remarkable with 15 of 19 games going over this season the money is smart on that to repeat again. I am actually a bit surprised the number isn't 7 goals either as both of these teams can score in bunches with the Stars scoring 4.1 goals per game at home and the Avalanche averaging 3.6 goals per game overall. The goalies help the cause too as Scott Wedgewood has been average in relief of Jake Oettinger and Colorado has been a revolving door of goaltenders trying to find the right one. Love this play tonight and who doesn't want to root for goals galore, take the over.
Pick: Avalanche & Stars Over 6 Goals (-120 on DraftKings)
Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators
Going back to the well tonight on fading the Flames as they are a bad team but get good odds for some reason on the books around NHL betting. This team has a -11 goal differential on the season and is 7-13 straight up on the road this season, why are they getting respect with the odds? Nashville on the other hand have been very good on home ice this season allowing just 2.4 goals per game over the past month in front of Smashville. They are also 12-9 straight up in Music City and have the better roster over Calgary as well as their goaltender Juuse Saros who was off a bit to start the season but he's locked in now. I expect this one to be lower scoring and a tight game but I think the Preds pull this one out tonight and take it on the Money Line
Pick: Nashville Predators Money Line (-120 on BetMGM)
Chicago Blackhawks at New York Rangers
This game is just begging to be bet on but the Money Line is past -400 on the Rangers and the total is hard to predict because will Chicago pull their weight? I will opt out of that question because I am not really sure but what I do know is that the Rangers are prime to score some goals tonight as they host a Chicago team that is allowing 5.7 goals per game on the road over the past 30 days! That's San Jose Sharks this past October bad and that has me on the Rangers team total. You can grab it at 4+ or 3.5 on varying books right now but I opt for the 4 or more as the odds are just a bit better around -150. Going to eat some juice but this game is going to be a blowout and I want to cash in on that!
Pick: New York Rangers Team Total 4+ Goals (-150 on PointsBet)
Player Prop- Cam Atkinson, Philadelphia Flyers
This slate is loaded with big prop spots but none bigger for the Flyers taking on the Blue Jackets who are allowing 38 shots per game on the road over the last month plus. Enter Atkinson who has been up and down this season when it comes to shots on goal but he has gone over his 2.5 shots total in 62% of games this season and I am betting he tops it again. Lifetime he also has gone over 2.5 shots in 5 of 6 meetings with the Blue Jackets so he knows them well and its a revenge game!
Pick: Cam Atkinson Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-120 on DraftKings)
DOG OF THE DAY
Minnesota Wild Money Line vs Tampa Bay Lightning (+115 on Caesars)
Player News
Royce Lewis, out since June 13 with a strained hamstring, is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Friday.
Lewis will DH in at least his first game. If all goes well, one imagines he’ll be activated Tuesday for the series opener against the Marlins.
Zack Gelof (hand, ribs) went 2-for-4 with a walk, two doubles, an RBI, and three runs scored for Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday.
Gelof played essentially the whole game at second base yet again, which is a big step in his quest to get back on the field for the Athletics. Gelof now has just five strikeouts to nine walks in his nine rehab games at Triple-A and could be set to return to the big leagues as soon as next week. That would mean that the Athletics would have to bump either Max Muncy or Luis Urias from the starting lineup and could send Max Schumann back to Triple-A.
Rangers 3B prospect Cody Freeman went 4-for-5 with a home run, two RBI, and one run scored for Triple-A Round Rock on Wednesday.
Freeman is now hitting .312/.360/.494 in 67 games at Triple-A with 10 home runs and six steals. He has cut his strikeout rate in half this season by not focusing so much on pulling the ball and making better swing decisions. He has an impressive 89 percent contact rate and a minuscule 5.1 percent swinging strike rate. The former fourth-round pick may be a better option than Justin Foscue to fill in at the hot corner with Jake Burger (oblique) on the IL.
Roansy Contreras allowed one run on three hits in five innings for Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday.
Contreras also struck out two and walked one. The Orioles seem to have transitioned Contreras back to being a starter, as he has started in five of his last six appearances. His last four appearances in Norfolk have been as a traditional starter, and he has allowed two earned runs on 11 hits in 16 innings while striking out 11 and walking six. The strikeout totals are not overly impressive, but Contreras was a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect a few years ago, so perhaps the Orioles can figure out a way to find some of that previous value.
Dodgers OF prospect Ryan Ward went 2-for-5 with a walk, a home run, two RBI, and three runs scored for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
Ward is 27 years old, so he’s not an up-and-coming prospect, but he has been crushing the ball in Triple-A this season, hitting .303/.395/.574 with 19 home runs and 11 steals in 72 games. He also hitt 33 home runs and stole 11 bases in 120 games at Triple-A last year. His exit velocities have always been strong, but this year he’s taken more of a line drive approach and cut his swing rate by 11 percent, which has helped him make far more contact. With Michael Confort hitting just .176/.302/.308 in 262 plate appearances this year, it might be time for the Dodgers to see if Ward could be a better option.
Kristian Campbell started at first base on Wednesday for Triple-A Worcester.
This is Campbell’s first start at first base after beginning to work at the position once he was demoted. Campbell struggled at the plate on Wednesday, striking out four times, but the 22-year-old can be afford some grace at the plate given all the work he’s doing on the defensive side of the ball. Given all the changes, we should expect Campbell to take some time at Triple-A to get comfortable with the adjustments.