Those of you who have been playing DFS NHL for awhile have seen it happen. You construct your lineups, and in the end, you decide to go the safe route. Play the goalie who is the biggest favorite of the night.
Makes sense.
After all, if you play DFS NHL, there's a good possibility you've played DFS MLB. If Vegas has Clayton Kershaw as a -295 favorite over the Rockies, why not play him? He's the best in the game. Plus, it gives you the best shot at securing those much needed points for the win.
So why not take 2-Time NHL All-Star Corey Crawford when he's a -295 favorite against the lowly Colorado Avalache, who are the worst team in the NHL? The price is reasonable, and he's ULTRA SAFE.
BOOM. The Avalanche steal one in Chicago. You look at your lineup and play Monday morning quarterback. If you would have played Frederik Andersen of the Maple Leafs, he would have given you 31 saves with just one goal against. That would have helped you cash all of your lineups.
I've had that happen to me one too many times. But that's hockey. There's plenty of parity in the game of hockey. The worst team can always take one from the best team.
I generally have a strategy when choosing goalies for my DFS NHL lineups. It's never going to be an obvious choice set. Sometimes I'll play the biggest favorite of the night. Sometimes I don't. Sometimes it pans out. Sometimes it doesn't. But most importantly, when deciding goalies, I generally try to stay away from playing goalies who may not have as much upside because the defense in front of them limit the shots that they see.
For instance, the Los Angeles Kings allow the least amount of shots against in the league. Their record doesn't exactly show how good of a defensive team they are. I can count the number of times I've played either Peter Budaj or Jeff Zatkoff in cash games this season with one hand. In fact, the last two times, they were the biggest favorites of the night, and they got clobbered, even though they saw a limited number of shots.
I can't stress enough how important it is to have a goalie who sees a reasonable number of shots. Goalies who don't see as many shots on goal have a low floor and a low ceiling. That's not exactly the best recipe for success in DFS NHL. Even so, there are definitely going to be times when you do make the decision to play the biggest favorite even when they don't see many shots. Usually, it's because of one, two, or all three of the following reasons:
1) Limited options - None of the other goalie choices are appealing, and they are far from a lock for a win. This could also be due to a shorter slate.
2) The price is right - Yes, you may be interested in another goalie that has more upside, but their salary is way too cheap to ignore.
3) You just want to play it safe - You know that the goalie is going to have high ownership, and rather than taking matters into your own hand, you decide to make the safe play and go with the majority.
Nevertheless, I have taken the time to construct a chart that tracks the performances of the biggest goalie favorites of the season. In order to construct the chart, I utilized the Vegas Odds provided by DonBest.com, and if unavailable, I utilized the Vegas Odds provided by TheScore app. I have not created this chart just to prove a point. It's honestly here to answer my own curiosity, and provide a reference for those who are also curious about goalie performance.
As of January 25, 2017, out of 100 nights of NHL action this season, only 60 percent of goalies who were listed as the biggest favorite of the night have led their team to victories. On top of that, only nine of these 100 favorites, have shutout their opponent. Amazingly, four of the nine have come from Washington Capitals goalies, Philipp Grubauer and Braden Holtby, who have two a piece.
Check out the chart below:
2016-2017 NHL Regular Season Biggest Goalie Favorites | ||||||
Date | Team (Favorite) | Goalie | Team (Underdog) | Odds | GA | W/L |
10/12 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Los Angeles Kings | -160 | 1 | W |
10/13 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Bishop | Detroit Red Wings | -170 | 4 | W |
10/14 | Los Angeles Kings | Zatkoff | Philadelphia Flyers | -145 | 4 | L |
10/15 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | New York Islanders | -180 | 1 | W |
10/16 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | Buffalo Sabres | -195 | 6 | L |
10/17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Fleury | Colorado Avalanche | -185 | 4 | L |
10/18 | Washington Capitals | Grubauer | Colorado Avalanche | -210 | 0 | W |
10/19 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Detroit Red Wings | -165 | 2 | L |
10/20 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Arizona Coyotes | -188 | 2 | W |
10/21 | New York Islanders | Halak | Arizona Coyotes | -215 | 2 | W |
10/22 | Dallas Stars | Lehtonen | Columbus Blue Jackets | -195 | 3 | L |
10/23 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Vancouver Canucks | -190 | 2 | W |
10/24 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Calgary Flames | -175 | 3 | L |
10/25 | St. Louis Blues | Hutton | Calgary Flames | -220 | 4 | L |
10/26 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Boston Bruins | -200 | 2 | W |
10/27 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Columbus Blue Jackets | -205 | 1 | W |
10/28 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Columbus Blue Jackets | -200 | 4 | L |
10/29 | Washington Capitals | Grubauer | Vancouver Canucks | -195 | 0 | W |
10/30 | New York Islanders | Greiss | Toronto Maple Leafs | -170 | 1 | W |
October Record: 11-8 (.579 winning percentage) | ||||||
11/1 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Buffalo Sabres | -178 | 2 | L |
11/2 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Vancouver Canucks | -235 | 0 | W |
11/3 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Winnipeg Jets | -245 | 3 | W |
11/4 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Arizona Coyotes | -215 | 1 | W |
11/5 | St. Louis Blues | Hutton | Columbus Blue Jackets | -195 | 1 | W |
11/6 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Winnipeg Jets | -205 | 2 | W |
11/7 | New York Islanders | Halak | Vancouver Canucks | -188 | 2 | W |
11/8 | New York Rangers | Raanta | Vancouver Canucks | -345 | 5 | L |
11/9 | Buffalo Sabres | Lehner | Ottawa Senators | -130 | 2 | L |
11/10 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Fleury | Minnesota Wild | -175 | 4 | L |
11/11 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | Dallas Stars | -177 | 3 | L |
11/12 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Toronto Maple Leafs | -240 | 1 | W |
11/13 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Montreal Canadiens | -170 | 2 | W |
11/14 | Only 1 Game | |||||
11/15 | St. Louis Blues | Allen | Buffalo Sabres | -205 | 1 | W |
11/16 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Washington Capitals | -120 | 7 | L |
11/17 | Dallas Stars | Lehtonen | Colorado Avalanche | -160 | 2 | W |
11/18 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Detroit Red Wings | -205 | 0 | W |
11/19 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Colorado Avalanche | -205 | 3 | L |
11/20 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Florida Panthers | -190 | 3 | L |
11/21 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | New Jersey Devils | -230 | 0 | W |
11/22 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Ottawa Senators | -190 | 4 | L |
11/23 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | New York Islanders | -215 | 2 | W |
11/24 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Carolina Hurricanes | -200 | 1 | W |
11/25 | Dallas Stars | Niemi | Vancouver Canucks | -215 | 1 | W |
11/26 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | New Jersey Devils | -240 | 3 | W |
11/27 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | Arizona Coyotes | -215 | 2 | L |
11/28 | New York Islanders | Greiss | Calgary Flames | -162 | 1 | W |
11/29 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Arizona Coyotes | -250 | 1 | W |
11/30 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | New York Islanders | -180 | 5 | L |
November Record: 18-11 (.621 winning percentage) | ||||||
12/1 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | New York Islanders | -235 | 3 | L |
12/2 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Calgary Flames | -147 | 3 | L |
12/3 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Fleury | Detroit Red Wings | -290 | 3 | W |
12/4 | New York Islanders | Halak | Detroit Red Wings | -160 | 4 | L |
12/5 | Columbus Blue Jackets | Bobrovsky | Arizona Coyotes | -260 | 1 | W |
12/6 | Nashville Predators | Rinne | Colorado Avalanche | -210 | 3 | W |
12/7 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Ottawa Senators | -210 | 4 | L |
12/8 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Bishop | Vancouver Canucks | -220 | 5 | L |
12/9 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Edmonton Oilers | -162 | 2 | W |
12/10 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Colorado Avalanche | -215 | 1 | W |
12/11 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Ottawa Senators | -200 | 1 | W |
12/12 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Arizona Coyotes | -300 | 0 | W |
12/13 | Detroit Red Wings | Howard | Arizona Coyotes | -210 | 4 | L |
12/14 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Boston Bruins | -168 | 3 | W |
12/15 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Andersen | Arizona Coyotes | -240 | 3 | L |
12/16 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Los Angeles Kings | -180 | 1 | L |
12/17 | Minnesota Wild | Keumper | Arizona Coyotes | -260 | 1 | W |
12/18 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | New Jersey Devils | -195 | 2 | W |
12/19 | St. Louis Blues | Hutton | Edmonton Oilers | -140 | 3 | L |
12/20 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Colorado Avalanche | -250 | 0 | W |
12/21 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | Arizona Coyotes | -160 | 2 | W |
12/22 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Andersen | Colorado Avalanche | -148 | 0 | W |
12/23 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Colorado Avalanche | -295 | 2 | L |
12/27 | New York Rangers | Raanta | Ottawa Senators | -165 | 3 | W |
12/28 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Fleury | Carolina Hurricanes | -170 | 2 | W |
12/29 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | New Jersey Devils | -245 | 2 | L |
12/30 | San Jose Sharks | Dell | Philadelphia Flyers | -170 | 0 | W |
12/31 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | Vancouver Canucks | -255 | 3 | L |
December Record: 16-12 (.571 winning percentage) | ||||||
1/1 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Ottawa Senators | -177 | 1 | W |
1/2 | Vancouver Canucks | Miller | Colorado Avalanche | -144 | 2 | W |
1/3 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Buffalo Sabres | -215 | 4 | L |
1/4 | Calgary Flames | Elliott | Colorado Avalanche | -210 | 1 | W |
1/5 | Los Angeles Kings | Zatkoff | Detroit Red Wings | -235 | 4 | L |
1/6 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Arizona Coyotes | -230 | 2 | W |
1/7 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Detroit Red Wings | -205 | 3 | W |
1/8 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Fleury | Tampa Bay Lightning | -255 | 2 | W |
1/9 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | Dallas Stars | -155 | 6 | L |
1/10 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Detroit Red Wings | -195 | 3 | W |
1/11 | Winnipeg Jets | Hutchinson | Montreal Canadiens | -136 | 7 | L |
1/12 | Edmonton Oilers | Talbot | New Jersey Devils | -190 | 2 | W |
1/13 | Calgary Flames | Johnson | New Jersey Devils | -225 | 2 | L |
1/14 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | Winnipeg Jets | -200 | 2 | W |
1/15 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Philadelphia Flyers | -250 | 0 | W |
1/16 | Boston Bruins | Rask | New York Islanders | -235 | 4 | L |
1/17 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | New Jersey Devils | -235 | 4 | L |
1/18 | Winnipeg Jets | Pavelec | Arizona Coyotes | -205 | 3 | W |
1/19 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Arizona Coyotes | -345 | 3 | W |
1/20 | Boston Bruins | Rask | Chicago Blackhawks | -162 | 1 | L |
1/21 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Colorado Avalanche | -335 | 2 | W |
1/22 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Vancouver Canucks | -205 | 2 | W |
1/23 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Colorado Avalanche | -205 | 2 | W |
1/24 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | St. Louis Blues | -215 | 3 | L |
1/25 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Philadelphia Flyers | -145 | 2 | L |
1/26 | Chicago Blackhawks | Darling | Winnipeg Jets | -170 | 5 | L |
1/31 | Anaheim Ducks | Gibson | Colorado Avalanche | -280 | 1 | W |
January Record: 16-11 (.593 winning percentage) | ||||||
2/1 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | Colorado Avalanche | -280 | 0 | W |
2/2 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Arizona Coyotes | -160 | 3 | W |
2/3 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Columbus Blue Jackets | -150 | 3 | W |
2/4 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Arizona Coyotes | -270 | 3 | L |
2/5 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Calgary Flames | -170 | 3 | W |
2/6 | New York Islanders | Greiss | Toronto Maple Leafs | -125 | 5 | W |
2/7 | Montreal Canadiens | Price | Colorado Avalanche | -210 | 4 | L |
2/8 | Only 1 Game | |||||
2/9 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Detroit Red Wings | -270 | 3 | W |
2/10 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Tampa Bay Lightning | -170 | 1 | W |
2/11 | New York Rangers | Lundqvist | Colorado Avalanche | -300 | 2 | W |
2/12 | Minnesota Wild | Dubnyk | Detroit Red Wings | -280 | 3 | W |
2/13 | Calgary Flames | Johnson | Arizona Coyotes | -220 | 5 | L |
2/14 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Vancouver Canucks | -320 | 0 | W |
2/15 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Florida Panthers | -155 | 6 | L |
2/16 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | Arizona Coyotes | -250 | 5 | L |
2/17 | Carolina Hurricanes | Ward | Colorado Avalanche | -300 | 2 | L |
2/18 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Detroit Red Wings | -182 | 3 | L |
2/19 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Detroit Red Wings | -300 | 5 | L |
2/20 | St. Louis Blues | Allen | Florida Panthers | -140 | 2 | L |
2/21 | Los Angeles Kings | Budaj | Colorado Avalanche | -200 | 1 | W |
2/22 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Philadelphia Flyers | -155 | 1 | W |
2/23 | Chicago Blackhawks | Crawford | Arizona Coyotes | -280 | 3 | W |
2/24 | Dallas Stars | Lehtonen | Arizona Coyotes | -270 | 2 | W |
2/25 | San Jose Sharks | Jones | Vancouver Canucks | -210 | 1 | W |
2/26 | Florida Panthers | Reimer | Ottawa Senators | -160 | 2 | L |
2/27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Vasilevskiy | Ottawa Senators | -192 | 5 | W |
2/28 | Boston Bruins | Rask | Arizona Coyotes | -360 | 1 | W |
February Record: 17-10 (.630 winning percentage) | ||||||
3/1 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Vasilevskiy | Carolina Hurricanes | -205 | 3 | W |
3/2 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | New Jersey Devils | -330 | 0 | W |
3/3 | Carolina Hurricanes | Ward | Arizona Coyotes | -250 | 4 | L |
3/4 | Los Angeles Kings | Bishop | Vancouver Canucks | -270 | 4 | L |
3/5 | Pittsburgh Penguins | Murray | Buffalo Sabres | -330 | 3 | L (ND) |
3/6 | Washington Capitals | Holtby | Dallas Stars | -270 | 4 | L |
March Record: 2-4 (.333 winning percentage) | ||||||
2016-17 Year-To-Date 80-56 (.588 winning percentage) | ||||||
This chart will be updated throughout the season.