Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears -3.0

Over/Under 43.5

  • Chase Daniel is in his 10th NFL season, and he has attempted 78 career passes. Anyone who says they know what they are getting out of Daniel in this game is lying. The most likely outcome is probably Mitch Trubisky minus the running. The Bears should be able to scheme some guys open, and considering Daniel only has one career interception, I’m guessing he is going to mostly take care of the football.
  • While the Lions will have their starting quarterback, they won’t have rookie running back Kerryon Johnson . LeGarrette Blount has been largely ineffective running the football this season; laughably so over the last four games. Theo Riddick has been good in the passing game as always, but he has just nine carries through eight games.
  • Marvin Jones has been ruled out as well, which should mean even more targets for Kenny Golladay Thursday. Golladay caught eight of 14 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown last week with Jones out. In Week 10 with Jones active, Golladay caught six of 13 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown.
  • The real question for the Lions is if anyone besides Golladay and Riddick will step up with Jones and Johnson out. Bruce Ellington caught six passes on nine targets last week against Carolina, and he is going to have to be active in the passing game to take some of the defensive attention away from Golladay.
  • Chase Daniel is the oldest player on the Bears at 32 years old. At the very least, he should be comfortable in the offense after having worked with Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy in Kansas City from 2013 to 2015 as well as this season with the Bears.
  • After struggling to stop the run for most of the season, the Lions have allowed a total of 110 rushing yards over their last two games.
  • Khalil Mack has played each of the last two weeks after missing two weeks with an ankle injury. Mack has eight sacks in eight games this season, and he also has tied a career high with five forced fumbles. The Bears rank first in Defensive DVOA this season.

 

Pre-Game Props

1) The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a passing play (We'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark) (2.6x yes/2.2x no)

YES. Almost every NFL team throws more than it runs, including both of these two teams. I’m sure the Bears will try to run more with Chase Daniel at quarterback, but they also won’t get all of the carries from their quarterback that they are used to. Detroit already ranks 24th in the NFL in rushing attempts, and there is no reason to think they will run more often with Kerryon Johnson out.

 

2) T. Cohen (CHI) records more receptions than T. Riddick (DET) in the 1st Quarter (2.5x yes/2.5x no)

No. Cohen is certainly capable of winning, but this in an exceptionally easy call. Riddick has one more reception than Cohen this season despite playing two fewer games. Riddick is averaging six receptions per game since Golden Tate was traded, and he is going to play even more snaps with Kerryon Johnson out.

 

3) M. Stafford (DET) and C. Daniel (CHI) both throw a TD in the 1st Quarter (4.6x yes/1.6x no)

NO. I almost don’t care how high the payout is. Detroit will likely have a hard time scoring with two of its top four offensive weapons out, facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bears are starting a career backup who hasn’t attempted more than two passes in a season since 2014. The odds of both guys throwing a TD in the first quarter are just too unlikely.

 

4) The first offensive play of the game gains 2 or more yards (1.7x yes/4.5x no)

NO. LeGarrette Blount is averaging 2.3 yards per carry this season, and 0.8 yards per carry over his last four games. Jordan Howard averaged 1.9 yards per carry against the Lions in Week 10. Matthew Stafford is completing 66.3 percent of his passes this season, and Chase Daniels has completed 65.4 percent of his passes in his career.

 

5) J. Howard (CHI) rushes for 15 or more total yards on the CHI opening drive (3.3x no/2.1x yes)

NO. The Bears are averaging 35.2 yards per drive this season, and they have gone three-and-out on just 16.7 percent of their drives. Of course, even if the Bears gain 35 yards on the opening drive, it seems unlikely Howard would gain 15 of them. Howard had just 21 rushing yards on 11 carries against Detroit in Week 10.

 

6) DET scores on their opening drive (3.8x yes/1.6x no) 

YES. The Lions have scored touchdowns on 22.3 percent of their drives this season and field goals on 18.4 percent. The Bears’ defense has allowed touchdown on 18.1 percent of drives and field goals on 10.3 percent. In their previous game this season, Detroit scored on 33 percent of their drives. I think the payout is just good enough to say “Yes.”