NFL DFS Week 6 Watch List: Is Kyler Murray vs Seattle Seahawks This Week's Cheat Code?

Well, what did we learn from last week? Oh yeah, that the Bills are going to continue to throw no matter the score or the level of their competition. Allen has been absolutely ridiculous thus far and now he's got a Chiefs defense that, for all intents and purposes, could have/should have lost to the Derek Carr and the Raiders. Kansas City is giving up an average of 255.6 passing yards per game, they've allowed 12 touchdowns through the air and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 105.5 passer-rating against the, That's the fifth-highest in the NFL. The price is high, but the results make it very tough to argue against it.

Facing the Seahawks has been the cure for what ails you if you are an NFL team as we watched the Lions put up 45 on them in Week 4 and now the Saints just hung another 39 on them this past Sunday. The defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, they allow nearly 260 passing yards per game, have allowed nine passing touchdowns and you're looking at a 106.6 passer rating against them. At some point you'd like to think Pete Carrol fixes this, but not this week. Kyler Murray won't need to run too much as Seattle lacks a true pass-rush and he'll have no problem setting up his receivers throughout the game. It will be super-chalky, but sometimes the chalk plays. 

JUST ADDED – You probably read about him in Jon Impemba's QB Coach, so everything over there counts. But let's add on top of it as Minkah Fitzpatrick was just ruled out, joining a litany of Steelers defensive backs who are out as well. That, coupled with guys like Chris Godwin and Russell Gage coming off the injury report, should make Brady a fantastic cash game option this week, even on the road.

The only concern is whether or not Cousins is too old/mature for us to be concerned with him coming down with the Miami Flu. If he and his receivers can keep their heads screwed on straight, then this matchup might be too tough to pass up. The Fins are allowing 276.8 passing yards per game and have allowed eight passing touchdowns. Cousins has the weapons in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to do plenty of damage against these struggling cornerbacks and he's primed for a big game here. We'll watch closely over the next few days, but keep him in mind for a pay-down in cash.

At some point, you have to figure the bottom is going to drop out on Geno, but I don't think Week 6 against Arizona is that time. The Cardinals rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and opposing quarterbacks have a 101.1 passer rating against them. With the Seattle defense in such shambles, Geno is forced to throw often just to keep his team in the game and if Arizona game-plans as the Saints and Lions did over these last two weeks, you know Geno is going to be leaned on heavily in this one. He's got two 300-yard efforts over his last three games, but even more impressive is the 9:2 TD:INT he's sporting.

There's not a whole lot of GPP upside to Garoppolo, but in the right situation, he could be throwing the ball a little more often and should have a high enough floor to keep him cash game viable. Atlanta is giving up nearly 280 passing yards per game with eight passing touchdowns allowed on the season. They have a limited pass rush outside of Grady Jarrett, as evidenced by just eight sacks on the season, and opposing QBs have posted a 94.4 passer rating against them. It's certainly worth keeping an eye on him this week to see where Kyle Shanahan's head is at.

The Steelers rank 16th in DVOA against the run, but they are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season and they're allowing almost 130 rushing yards per game. Even better, is Fournette's usage in the passing game. He's seen 18 targets from Tom Brady over the past two games and he's turned them into 17 catches for 140 yards and two touchdowns. If he's going to be leaned on for 15-20 carries per game and continues to see a target share this yummy, it's going to be very difficult to find reasons not to roster him.

With Mac Jones still in question with a high-ankle sprain, Bill Belichick is going to continue to lean heavily on his ground game in an effort to keep the pressure off Bailey Zappe. Now with Damien Harris also in question, the onus is going to fall upon Stevenson. They have Pierre Strong, but Stevenson has been a bulldog recently and deserves to carry the water for New England. He's seen a steady increase in carries throughout the season and really broke out against the Lions last week, posting 161 rushing yards on 25 carries. The Browns are giving up 138.2 rushing yards per game and have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season. Stevenson should be prett amped up for this one.

The Jets rank 18th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game with a total of seven rushing touchdowns. Jones continues to get the RB1 workload for the Packers and he is a fixture in the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. There's a lot of angst in Green Bay right now following their loss to the Giants so you can expect Matt LaFleur to get back to the basics of his offense and continue getting Jones the 20 carries he needs. He did it against the Patriots and the Bears. No reason to think he can't do it against the Jets to. 

No, we aren't chasing last week's points because we already got last week's points when I told you to use Mostert against New York. But given the Miami quarterback situation and this matchup against a suspect Vikings run D, we just might have to go back to the well once again. Minnesota is allowing just over 120 rushing yards per game and they've coughed up eight rushing touchdowns already. Mostert has the speed to beat the edge rushers to the outside and the cutting ability to take it back inside if they take away his running lanes on the outside. Mike McDaniel gave Chase Edmonds ample opportunities, but Mostert, for now while he's healthy, seems to be his top choice.

JUST ADDED – While we're not entirely sure about what is going down or if this is truly a long-term situation, but Cam Akers will not play in Week 6 due to personal reasons. The reason we say long-term is because Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue wrote, "McVay says [the] team is working through the situation, and he also declined to say whether he believes Akers will be a part of the team in the future." SO let that marinate for a few. But what this does is open up some alternate value at the running back position. Henderson likely takes over as the lead back who will also handle the pass-catching work, but we could also get a Malcolm Brown sighting near the goal line. This week's opponent, the Panthers, are allowing 137.8 rushing yards per game (sixth-highest in the league) and have given up five rushing touchdowns. They also rank 22nd in the league against running back pass-plays. Could be an interesting pay-down here. 

UPDATED – Both Conner and Williams are out for this week which makes Benjamin a must-start this week, at least on Draft Kings. He's already been priced up on FanDuel. ORIGINAL ANALYSIS: We're obviously watching the injuries to James Conner and Darrel Williams, but if things don't improve for either, Benjamin could be the big move for this week against the hapless Seahawks defense. He's averaged just six carries and almost four targets per game so far, but if both of these guys are out, his touches are going to increase exponentially. He's not the greatest running back in the league, but opportunity trumps talent and the Seahawks defense is…well….hot trash. 

We're watching all the Bills receivers in this match-up but Diggs is obviously the one who pops off the page the most, especially against the Chiefs who rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver and are allowing an average of 98.5 receiving yards per game to them. We just watched Davante Adams carve them up for 124 yards and two touchdowns, but don't forget the key pass interference calls he drew as well. Those plays kept putting the Raiders into the red zone and gave them a spectacular boost. Diggs should have no trouble doing the same.

Until DeAndre Hopkins comes back from suspension, Brown is the No. 1 in this Cardinals offense and should be treated as such. He's seen double-digit targets in each of his last four games, he's got one 100-yard effort and he has three touchdowns on the year, including a score in each of his last two. I cannot say how bad the Seattle secondary is enough, so I'll say it at least once more – they suck. Brown should feast on them this week.

Even with Chris Godwin returning to action, Evans continues to see ample targets from Tom Brady, including a nice heavy dose inside the red zone. The Steelers rank 26th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver and are allowing almost 80 yards per game to them. There is a strong rapport between Evans and Brady, so much so that you almost have to keep him in your lineups regularly. We'll look at Godwin and Co. to see what more we want from this passing attack as the week moves on, but we're pretty confident in Evans.

He's seen 25 targets through four games this season, has scored in three touchdowns and has one 100-yard effort to his credit. Aaron Rodgers may turn to Randall Cobb a little too much at times, but overall, Lazard has been his go-to guy, as we expected. With Christian Watson potentially out with a hamstring issue, Rodgers is going to need Lazard even more this week. We'd like to see him reach that double-digit target level at some point, but so far we've got no complaints about the production we've seen thus far. The Jets coverage shouldn't give him much trouble this weekend.

The fantasy football community can be a real pain in the ass sometime with its perpetual overreactions. Kirk goes from six catches per game for an average of over 90 yards with three touchdowns to getting shut down by Darius Slay in Week 4 and then having a terrible week, like EVERY single one of his teammates, and already, people are talking about dropping him in seasonal formats. If you've asked me about dropping him at any point in the last two weeks, I'm talking about you. YOU'RE the problem. But for DFS, I'll take that problem every week because it comes with low ownership on a guy who has the potential to smash in this match-up against the Colts, so go ahead idiots and look away from Kirk, the guy everyone was in love with for the first three weeks. The Colts rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass, 28th against the opposing WR1 and they've allowed seven touchdowns through the air this season. Stop being part of the problem and be a part of the winning solution. 

We obviously like Metcalf as well, but according to DVOA data, the Cardinals struggle more against the opposing WR2 and the slot. That will put Lockett on the radar, especially after watching him shred the Saints secondary for 104 yards and two touchdowns on just five catches. Vegas has a 51 game total on this matchup, second only to Bills/Chiefs, and we know both quarterbacks are going to be airing it out. Figure out your pricing and see which way you want to go, but this game is fixing to be a stack all on its own right now.

While Kyle Shanahan likes to move his receivers all around, Aiyuk stays predominately on the outside which means he's matching up with A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward most of the time. That actually works just fine as he does have the ability to beat this soft coverage and we like the targets share he's been seeing in recent weeks. The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position and rank 24th in DVOA against the opposition's WR2. If Aiyuk's target share continues to trend upwards, he could have an explosive game this week against Atlanta.

Now that Matt Rhule is gone, it's time to take a nice, long look at DJ Moore again. Yes, even with PJ Walker under center. In fact, I'm willing to bet that Walker is a better quarterback than Baker Mayfield, so give me Moore against a Rams team that is struggling in coverage right now. Jalen Ramsey is still a strong cover corner, but he's not going to shadow Moore and the rest of that Rams secondary is having a lot of trouble containing receivers, as evidenced by the fact that they rank 29th and 27th against the WR 1 and 2 respectively. With the change in coaching, the team is going to be amped up for this game and given how outspoken Moore has been about his role, it's time for the squeaky wheel to get the grease.

We're still trying to figure out who Zach Wilson's No. 1 receiver is going to be, so for now, we'll lean on Moore who has the strongest on-field rapport with the second-year quarterback. The Packers rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's WR1 and 18th against the slot, a spot Moore lines up at plenty. If he continues to get fed the ball, Moore can be a standout asset. But again, we'll look for practice notes all week so we don't shortchange Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis.

Tee Higgins is dealing with an ankle issue and the Saints DVOA coverage numbers are trash. We've seen Boyd explode before when ither Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase aren't around and this matchup against the Saints should be no different. He's been relatively quiet over the last two weeks which should be helpful regarding ownership percentages, but make no mistake – when Joe Burrow locks onto Boyd, the results have been absolutely fantastic. And this price tag, by the way, is so juicy on both sites.

He's the No. 1 tight end going up against a team that ranks 25th in DVOA against the tight end and allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Not much more analysis you need on Andrews, is there? Lock him in for this match-up.

We know the Seattle defense is trash and with no Jamaal Adams, they are absolutely horrible against the tight end. They rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. You'd like to think those numbers are skewed because of Taysom Hill, but remember what TJ Hockenson did to them two weeks ago? Hell, even Kyle Pitts hung 80-plus yards on them. Ertz will be a super-chalky option this week but that doesn't make it wrong.

The Jets may rank 14th in DVOA against the tight end, but they're actually allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. Tonyan hasn't been seeing the targets we'd like to see, but he has had moments of production, including a TD catch against New England in Week 4. With the position being as trashy as it is, Tonyan offers up a little bit of salary relief and gets you a slice of the Packers offense against a Jets defense that ranks 24th overall in the league.

It was a big week for Engram last week and while he was literally the only Jaguar who was worth anything last week, it was still a mediocre day with six catches for 69 yards. The tight end position, outside of Kelce and Andrews, doesn't really have a high ceiling so the hope here is a Trevor Lawrence rebound and a chance to expose a hole in the Colts defense. Indy ranks 26th in coverage against the tight end and they are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Yes, we are loading up on all things Seattle and Arizona, so why not give Dissly a look against the Cardinals who rank 30th in DVOA against the position. The Seahawks have a few tight ends they can targets, but Dissly has seen the higher snap count and has only one target fewer than Noah Fant. We might flip over to Fant depending on what we are seeing during practices, but again, having a slice of this game, even if it's the tight end, is recommended.