NFL DFS Week 5 Watch List: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

Even in a torrential downpour, Hurts managed to have a respectable fantasy day and lead the Eagles to a win over the upstart Jaguars last week. Now he takes this act on the road to face the Cardinals in beautiful, sunny Arizona. The travel will be the worst part of Hurts time out west as the Cardinals pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA and is allowing an average of 255.8 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns allowed through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 103.9 passer rating against them which is the seventh-best in the league. Expect Hurts to throw for a score or two and count on him to run at least one in himself.

While the personal life issues pile up for Brady, atleast he's getting his weapons back and allow him to vent his frustrations on the field. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the rest of the wide receivers should fare well as the Falcons pass defense is allowing 260 yards per game with seven touchdowns on the year. AJ Terrell is their best cover guy, so all Brady needs to do is throw away from him which shouldn't be too difficult. 

JUST ADDED – For better or for worse, I am very much in on the Jaguars this week. The obvious reason is that they are playing the Texans whose defense ranks 16th against the pass and 29th against the run, according to DVOA. James Robinson was already here in the Watch List and it's time now to add Lawrence who is seeing the benefits of having an actual NFL coach with an actual offensive scheme in place. The Jaguars will use the run to set up the pass and while Lawrence won't be required to chuck the ball all over the place, he is going to throw enough to rack up some strong fantasy points and be viable for both cash games and GPP tournaments. The price on DK is absolutely mouthwatering so expect him to be highly-owned over there. He's up there in cost on FD, but I wouldn't let it deter you from using him.

we're not 100-percent sure Winston will be back for this match-up, but just in case he is, we're going to want to take a long look at him against the Seahawks. Does this apply to Andy Dalton should he be under center? Maybe. I'm just not sold on Dalton to be a big-game quarterback. With Winston, you get a true gunslinger against a super-soft defense that just coughed up over 380 passing yards and four touchdown passes to Jared Goff and a depleted Lions receiving corps last week. If Winston is back and he has Kamara and he has at least Michael Thomas or Chris Olave to go along with Jarvis Landry, then we'd be foolish to not invest in some way.

There was a lot to like about Wilson's season-debut last week, particularly in the fourth quarter, as he led the Jets past the Steelers 24-20. He spread the ball around nicely and hit each of his receivers for solid gains throughout the second half. This week, he faces division-rival Miami who are struggling mightily in pass-coverage right now. The Dolphins are allowing almost 300 passing yards per game, they've given up eight passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks are posting a 107.1 passer rating against them, which is the second-highest in the league. If Wilson is taking steps forward in his development, then we should at least enjoy the ride with him.

No one will be on Wentz after that debacle of a game against Dallas. I feel like when we talk about Wentz, it's like we're talking about Shane Falco and that Sugar Bowl appearance. hat a bloody shambles that game was! But sometimes you have to take what you saw and put it away. The Dallas defense is a lot tougher than Tennessee's every will be, so let's focus on the fact that the Titans pass defense is allowing the most passing yards per game (274) and has given up 10 touchdowns through the air already. Call me crazy, but he's got too many good weapons to screw this one up.

It was a tough game in the rain for Robinson last week, but, fortunately, he's got the cure for what ails all running backs – the Houston Texans. Just ask Austin Ekeler who finally broke out against these very same Texans. Houston is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (172) and they've given up five rushing touchdowns as well. We've seen Robinson dominate before, so this match-up should prove to be one in which we heavily invest. 

Just like Brady, Fournette gets back on-track this week thanks to a match-up against a Falcons run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and has allowed an average of 126.3 rushing yards per game with four rushing touchdowns allowed. While we expect Brady to do well against tis Falcons defense, we also need to keep in mind that he doesn't want to throw 40 times per game, so there is an expected lean on Fournette, for sure. Forget about the three carries last week as the Bucs were laying from behind. Expect something more like the 20-odd carries he saw through the first two weeks of the season.

Considering the Saints run defense is usually solid, Cook owners should be happy with his 76 yards on 20 carries in his first game since dislocating his shoulder. We even saw him involved in the passing game, so you have to be encouraged for this week against a Bears defense that is allowing 184.3 rushing yards per game, the most allowed by any team in the league. The workload is not only encouraging given the shoulder issue, but also given the offensive scheme and how pass-heavy Kevin O'Connell likes to be. If he's softened on that stance, then not only will it boost the value of Cook, but also that of Kirk Cousins who passes better out of play-action.

It's going to be very difficult for anyone to trust Kamar after these last two weeks, but to me, that just means we get him at lower ownership rates than had he actually been performing like the Kamara we know and expect. What we're hoping for is a return to the Kamara of old and by that we just mean he's getting the touches we want, including the passing work. It might be difficult if Winston is under center, but given how bad the Seattle run defense has been (154 rushing yards per game allowed), we expect him to make the most out of any and all touches he receives.

It's no secret that the Lions defense is terrible, but even better for us here with Harris is that they rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and have allowed 165.5 rushing yards per game (third-most on the league) and a whopping 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. Harris gets the heavier workload between him and Rhamondre Stevenson, so we'll lean on him for now. We'll see if this could be another week where we can get away with playing both, but something tells me we're not going to want to invest too heavily in Patriots this week.

JUST ADDED – The Jets did a nice job containing Najee Harris last week but face a different type of runner in Mostert and a different type of blocking scheme. Mostert is a strong one-cut back who thrives in an outside zone-blocking scheme and uses his speed to beat the edge rushers to the outside and, before you know it, he's off to the races. The Jets have allowed an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game but they've allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season. Yes, Chase Edmonds has been seeing most of the green zone touches, but Mostert has three for himself over the last two games and we've seen him used more and more as he gets healthier. This could be a breakout game as the Fins are likely to lean heavier on the run early on.

Teddy Bridgewater or not, Hill should be in-play against the Jets slot-corner Michael Carter II. His ability to pick up yards after the catch has always been a strong suit of his and we expect to see him put those skills and his speed onstage for this one. Bridgewater may not be able to throw that hero ball downfield like everyone wants to see, but he can certainly handle the short, high-percentage passing that Mike McDaniel favors. We'll let Hill handle the touchdowns on his own. We'll probably also take a long look at Jaylen Waddle as well, so don't ignore him or his cheaper price tag.

JUST ADDED – While the Panthers aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air, they have allowed an average of 134 rushing yards per game with five rushing touchdowns allowed on the season. Since Samuel works as both a running back and a receiver AND he's priced down as a mid-tier guy on FanDuel, he's definitely in-play for all DFS contests this week. He's been dynamic on both fronts and his ability to rack up yards after the catch and after contact have been a huge boost to those who have him in their lineups. Looks for another string effort this week.

There are apparently no weather concerns in Jacksonville this weekend, so we can all feel a lot more comfortable about using our Jaguars, especially Kirk who has definitely played the part of a top wide receiver in the NFL. He's averaged nine targets per game and in the first three games, he's averaged six catches per game, has amassed 267 receiving yards and caught three touchdowns. He should have no issues against this Houston secondary that ranks 21st in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver and has allowed an average of 105.7 yards per game to them.

We'll continue to keep a close watch over whether Keenan Allen returns, but that's only to see if we REALLY like Big Mike as opposed to just liking him. With Allen in, the coverage scheme is going to be vastly different and that will likely free up Williams even more against this Browns secondary that is having all sorts of trouble in coverage. Cleveland ranks 29th in DVOA against the opposition's WR2 and Williams routinely has a size advantage against these corners like Denzel Ward. He should be a solid play for this week.

We just sat and watched Evans make two strong touchdown grabs against the Chiefs on Sunday night and we know he is Brady's go-to guy even when all other receivers like Godwin, Julio and Gage are all healthy. A.J. Terrell is not he type of guy to use as shadow-coverage, so Evans will continue to be moved around and from there, he will exploit the mismatches against the likes of Casey Hayward or Mike Ford. Expect Evans to continue seeing the lion's share of targets and produce another strong week.

With 14 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games and a steady diet of double-digit targets, Lamb is steadily stepping into the elite receiver tier. He's not quite there yet, but he is certainly being treated as such by Cooper Rush and that will continue even when Dak Prescott returns. The Rams are a tough opponent, but Jalen Ramsey doesn't shadow and Lamb should be moved all around the field to exploit the other match-ups. Expect another strong dose of targets and look for him to do some endzone-dancing for a third-straight game. 

So I completely whiffed on the Lockett over Metcalf call last week, and am now thoroughly convince that Metcalf is the guy Geno Smith has his eyes locked onto routinely. The Saints rank 22nd in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and we also know that Marshon Lattimore is not the shutdown corner he used to be. He's seen double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks and should have a third-straight dominant performance as the Seahawks look to carry last week's win momentum into Week 5.

On the other side of this Saints/Seahawks game, we're going to look to invest in Olave who has really started to blossom into a top wide receiver while Michael Thomas has been out. Even if Thomas plays, I think Olave has earned himself a larger piece of the pie and he should be able to maintain his current target share. He had seven this last week but has 13 in each of the two games prior. Obviously, you want to see the double-digit targets, but we're not going to get greedy as Olave is one of those guys who will make the most out of whatever he gets.

The targets have been a little erratic through the first four games, but that's what happens on a team that is run-first and ALWAYS stays run-first. But if you're looking for a DFS pay-down for your third wideout, Woods offers up some potential against the Commanders. While Derrick Henry will set the tone, the Titans are still going to have to pass the ball and with Treylon Burks doubtful for this game, Woods should see a slight bump in targets. We're also looking at Nick Westbrook-Ihkine in this match-up as the Commanders secondary is really bad. 

The Titans are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game this season and they've allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns through the air, so while Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are still in-play, I'm definitely going to invest in Samuel this week. He's been quiet these last two weeks, but should have a game more closely resembling what he did in the first two weeks than what we saw in these last two weeks. With his ability to run the ball, as well as be a strong receiving option, Samuel should be used a little more heavily in that wide-back role we know Scott Turner likes to use him in.

We'll check in on the health of Jakobi Meyers leading into this game, but if he is out again, Parker checks in as the Patriots' No. 1 receiver and should have a strong day so long as Bailey Zappe doesn't totally suck. The Lions defense is atrocious and is allowing an average of 95 receiving yards to the opposition's top wideout. Again, this is a secondary that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air. As remedial as the Patriots offense looks, even they can score on Detroit.   

Arizona ranks 29th in DVOA against the tight end and they're allowing and average of almost 85 yards per game to them. We were told throughout the preseason that Isaiah Simmons was going to be the key to shutting down opposing tight ends, but he has struggled massively so far. Goedert sees the third-most target on this Eagles team and he should continue to be a solid option at a weak position.

JUST ADDED – With no top-tier tight ends available, we take a slight step down in price and turn to one of the more reliable options in Everett who has averaged just over six targets per game, routinely sees looks from Justin Herbert in the red zone and has one touchdowns on the season. The Browns are allowing the 10th-most fantasy point per game to tight ends and rank 14th in DVOA against the position. We are going to have to watch him closely over the next two days, though as he has been hampered by a recent hamstring injury, but if he's good to go and Keenan Allen remains out, his value gets a slight bump.

Njoku had a strong game last week and now has back-to-back great games with a total of 14 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown. I preached Njoku all throughout the preseason and told you he is and will be the No. 2 guy in the targets pecking order for Cleveland. Now that we're seeing it, we have to take advantage while his price is down. It won't be for very long. The Chargers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and we expect Cleveland to be throwing. This puts Njoku in a fantastic spot.

It's all about the targets and Conklin, with the Jets, has been a target machine through the first four games of the season. He did drop a bit with Zach Wilson under center, but he should still continue to be a regularly targeted player as Wilson gets more comfortable with his current cast of pass-catchers. Miami ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing an average of almost 80 yards per game. 

The Titans haven't allowed a whole lot of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank dead-last in DVOA against the position. They're allowing an average of 72 yards to the opposing tight ends and Washington usually likes to stick with the one guy as opposed to rotating more in. If the Titans start off well with Derrick Henry, it will push the Commanders into catch-up mode and force the pass. Once that happens, the targets should fall very easily to Thomas in this match-up.

We haven't been too enamored with Gesicki this season as we learned he was struggling with the offense and was going to be held in as a blocker most of the time. He saw just five targets over the last two games and was rendered completely ineffective. But we did see Gesicki do well against Baltimore and the Jets have actually given up the most fantasy points per game to the position. We'll keep an eye on what the Fins are doing  with Gesicki during practices, but on-paper this is a winning match-up for him.