ThriveFantasy NFL Top Picks & Plays for Week 4: CeeDee Lamb Faces Vulnerable Washington Secondary
As we head into Week 4 of the NFL season, we now have enough data to start seeing trends and what some of the real issues are with teams in the National Football League. With this data, we can really attack certain NFL player props, especially those that either get us a lot of points on Thrive, or those that seem a bit too low. This week, I give you four picks on Thrive that I will be playing myself, and these props include two running backs ranked inside the top 12 in preseason fantasy football rankings, a stud wide receiver in the NFC East, and a west coast wideout that has thrived with his quarterback over the last couple of weeks.
I won’t go into much detail here, but there are some juicy NFL player props that you must target this week on Thrive, and these players will also likely generate some interest for your Week 4 NFL DFS lineups. It’s time to #PropUp over at ThriveFantasy!
Last week: 1-2
2022 Season: 4-4 (50%)
NFL ThriveFantasy Top Picks Week 4
Jonathan Taylor OVER 92.5 Rushing Yards
Outside of his Week 1 performance against Houston, it’s been tough sledding for Taylor, but this matchup against Tennessee seems destined for a monster game for Taylor. The Titans have allowed 6.1 yards per carry to running backs this season, and they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to the position this season. The Tennessee offense should struggle in this one, and with the Colts being the favorites by a couple of points in this contest, the game script should be in his favor. I like the over for Taylor this week.
Tyler Lockett OVER 5.5 Receptions
It’s weird entrusting one of my picks to Geno Smith, but Seattle is throwing the ball a bunch, and the biggest boost to Lockett in this matchup is that he shouldn’t see much of Jeff Okudah, who has easily been Detroit’s best cornerback this season. Whether it’s on the opposite side of the field or in the slot, Lockett should thrive and be the team’s de facto WR1 in this contest. After a quiet Week 1, Lockett has nine receptions on 11 targets in two straight games, and with this line being at just 5.5, his recent workload should allow us to cruise to an over. He gets a matchup boost compared to teammate DK Metcalf in this one.
Saquon Barkley OVER 101.5 Total Yards (Rush+Receiving)
There may not be anyone who loves Dameon Pierce more than me, but who do you believe is more talented, Pierce or Saquon Barkley? Pierce racked up 101 total yards on 22 touches last week against Chicago, and the Bears have been abysmal against the run this season. Barkley is a home run threat, and he’s received at least 18 touches in every game this season. He has over 102 total yards in two of three games this season, and I don’t envision the Chicago Bears of all teams slowing down Barkley in this contest. Chicago has allowed 4.9 yards per carry this season to running backs, not to mention 7.8 yards per reception.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Listen, I know Cooper Rush is under center for Dallas, but that hasn’t really slowed down Lamb. Not only does Lamb have at least 11 targets in each game that Rush has started, but he has at least 75 receiving yards in each game. Beyond that, Lamb has a massive 37.1 percent target share with Rush under center and now gets a juicy matchup against a Washington defense that has been abused by receivers this season. Only the Ravens and Rams have allowed more receiving yards to wideouts this season, and Dallas will move Lamb all around the offense to allow him to thrive in the most advantageous spots against this Washington secondary.
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- Introduction to Thrive Fantasy
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- Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Player Spotlight: Is Mack Hollins The Real Deal?
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Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.